Welcomed a new Bitcoiner into the world on blockheight 913,569. Actual magic.

If you have been in Bitcoin for a cycle or more before today, you have experienced a once in a lifetime event. You built the conviction to hold an asset which the entire world told you was destined for nothing. Literally everyone said you were wrong, at scale. That character building dynamic, is no longer the case. Wall Street, government policy, and even the media is at minimum less negative, but mostly now positive. Building conviction in Bitcoin now is easy, folks just pass off responsibility to their money manager. If you stood the hardcore test of building, forming, challenging, and reshaping your conviction over years, amidst the most hostile social environment against Bitcoin we will probably ever see, well done. Yes the asset is awesome. But the lessons you learned, and the trust you now have in your own decisions and ability to reason, cannot be replicated. You lived a once in a lifetime experience. Put it to work in your life, and make it better.

Once in every Bitcoin cycle, folks emerge with a thousand reason why the declining block subsidy will lead to the eventual death of the 🌽 In my latest piece for _checkonchain subscribers, I lay out my thoughts around the long-term viability of Bitcoins PoW security system.

Securing the Bag: My Take On Bitcoins Long-Term Security

The long-term sustainability of Bitcoin's security and mining market remains one of the biggest open questions for the asset. In this piece, I lay ...

For all the chess players in the room, what is your favourite piece, and why is it the Knight?

Gold is absolutely ripping. Amazing to watch. every $300 jump in the gold price is 1x entire Bitcoin market cap. If gold can move up by several trillions of dollars in a year...

hello Nostr

Paper #Bitcoin Many folks like to argue that derivatives markets suppress the $BTC price, and stop number going up. In this piece, I argue the opposite, that number go up will be hard without them. My latest piece is below for Checkonchain subscribers.

Paper Bitcoin

Plenty of folks like to claim derivatives are actively suppressing the Bitcoin price, and keeping it down. Too few are talking about the critical r...

Devil's Advocate. My latest #Bitcoin analysis is live for _checkonchain subscribers. In this piece, I assessed almost every metric I have on charts.checkonchain.com to develop the most robust bear case I could, and check my bullish bias.

Devil's Advocate

Subscribers know, I've held a macro bullish bias over the last few months, and the market seems to want to move higher. Let's play devil's advocate...

With #Bitcoin Options in the headlines, I figured it was a good time to share an options 101 with _checkonchain subscribers. I cover: - What options are (calls/Puts) - Options Buyers vs Sellers - The Greeks (Delta, Vega, Theta) - Example strategies

Options 101: Derivatives Masterclass

Options for Blackrock's ETF have just been approved by the SEC, opening eve more doors for large capital to enter the space. Today we explore the f...

Beating the House Odds in #Bitcoin. The latest @_checkonchain newsletter is out examining how often Bitcoin trades up, down or sideways. From this, we can demonstrate strategies for HODLers to amplify their advantage, and put the odds in their favour.

Beating the House Odds

There's a reason that 95% of day traders blow up their account, and it is because the odds are stacked against them. Today I help quantify the 'HOD...

#Bitcoin Demand Doldrums. The latest analysis piece is out for @_checkonchain subscribers. Today I share two perspectives: - Hard realities by Check the Analyst - What Check the HODLer is doing with that information. Enjoy folks!

Demand Doldrums

Orange coin good...but orange coin at a lower price is even better.

The latest episode of the _checkonchain Rough Consensus podcast is live with my market mentor Doc Severson. Doc has taught me so much about market psychology, and I have used many of these skills to improve my understanding of Bitcoin onchain data. I really enjoyed this conversation, and I have no doubt others will too.

Inflationary Illusions. My latest #Bitcoin research piece is out for _checkonchain subscribers, examining why this cycle, ATH, and market feels different to prior ones. What if we never made a real ATH at all?

Inflationary Illusions

What is the price of Bitcoin when the ruler we measure it in continues to shrink in size? Did we really hit an ATH? Is there a reason this cycle fe...

Today I learned that the _checkonchain newsletter is the #1 substack publication in Australia 🦘 Feeling very humbled, thank you to all of our subscribers who helped us get here.

The latest _checkonchain subscriber Q&A session is live. I cover three topics in a 1hr video: 1) Why I hold gold alongside #Bitcoin 2) How I think about $BTC Miners 3) A routine of metrics I use to assess blood is in the streets before I stack sats.

How To Identify Blood in the Streets, BTC Miners, and Gold in the Portfolio

In this months subscriber Q&A, I dive into three popular questions, including how I classify when 'blood is in the streets', how I think about Bitc...

Playing with Fire. My latest market analysis piece is live for Checkonchain subscribers.

Playing with Fire

The Bitcoin market is on the cusp of a big move, and it increasingly feels like the folks who are playing with fire (leverage and alts), could be i...

Given everything happening in Brazil, I wonder if a decentralised, uncensorable, scarce, digital, global monetary asset might be useful for the world right about now. Is anyone building something like this?

The Sell-side Risk Ratio is one of my all time favourite #Bitcoin metrics. It is a tool that helps track trend exhaustion, market instability, and equilibrium. The Sell-side Risk Ratio Masterclass is now live for _checkonchain subscribers.

Masterclass: Sell-side Risk Ratio

The Sell-side Risk Ratio provides insight into 'expected volatility', and is an ideal tool for tracking trend exhaustion, market instability, and w...

The latest episode of the Rough Consensus podcast is live with Joe Caralsare. This conversation was an absolute cracker, and Joe challenges so many of my priors throughout. I think you're going to enjoy this one, I certainly did.

Rough Consensus Podcast with Joe Carlasare (Ep #3)

How stable is the denominator, and what is a store of value? Today, I welcome Joe Carlasare on the podcast to discuss how we think about these ques...