Civilization fails when its institutions stop working and its people are hooked on drugs. Marriage is the oldest institution and loans are the oldest drug. We throw away instead of fix. We play the house and think we can win. We are all complicit.

So the liquidity crisis we were talking about a year ago was rather small thanks to US printing, wars and Trump just dragging his feet on everything. Market is still down in BTC/Gold terms. Venezuela popped, and Intel popped. Iran and AI didn't pop - yet. AI might still pop if we don't get cheap energy. That's where Iran war resolving still matters but I don't think it will. US benefits from high-priced oil and it gives renewables a chance to compete on local capacity. Israel also isn't about to let Iran rebuild without resistance. Another escalation around Hormuz could send oil back to $120–$140, continuing to make everything from food (have you seen the restaurant bills lately??) to AI infrastructure more expensive. Russia and Ukraine aren't going away either, keeping Europe under pressure. This puts the Anthropic IPO to the test. I don't think it will do amazing, but will do just alright enough. Maybe $1.5T instead of $2T. Enough to keep the AI bubble going another year, but not enough to justify all the debt behind it. I suspect the people financing AI data centres will go bust before the AI companies themselves, but will it spread? Not everyone has a data centre like they had homes in 2008. Meanwhile US Treasury mandate seems to be to inflate away debt while keeping Treasury yields below 5%. They're rolling over more debt short-term rather than locking in expensive long-term rates. Basically kicking the can down the road. Trump seems happy to keep delaying everything. I think he's effectively bought the markets another 2–3 years. The problem is when things converge - high oil and high bond yields above 5% while the dollar weakens and private credit starts defaulting. China and Russia are already building alternatives to the dollar, and will take advantage of it but neither wants global trade collapsing. It's gonna be a decade of instability on everything - prices, markets, politics, war - lots of start-stops, false-hope, fake-rally, teeter-dips. January 2027 will be interesting with the new Congress, but I expect more gridlock. Then there's the 2028 US election. Nobody wants a recession on their watch, so I suspect more borrowing, spending and inflation to keep things going. Stocks keep climbing while wages, savings and small businesses struggle. I actually worry civil unrest could become the bigger dark horse story... at what point does civil unrest itself cause high energy prices? Who's watching out for that? And then there's Bitcoin. The only thing everyone seems absolutely sure about is the four-year halving cycle. Which is exactly why, ironically, I wouldn't count on it. The 2028 halving might not play out like previous cycles at all... it always blows when you least expect it. Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Buffett is still sitting on cash. So make more money now, keep extra cash and buffers for an uncertain world, don't live on the margins or max efficiency, cycle long-term savings into Gold/BTC but prepare to hold for 8 years. Stay away from leveraged BTC treasury companies or borrowing against your assets. Keep some essentials stocked too. Don't expect too much from 2027, just build sovereignty. Real shopping window will likely be late 2028 to early 2029 where the debt, politics, AI, and energy cycles finally collide. Better if we don't get a crash but only if we're smart about what's actually happening.

market stays irrational longer than you can stay solvent... trump is continuing to drag his feet on everything... US Treasury / Bessent unofficial mandate is to inflate away the debt... while keeping bond yields below 5%... they're issuing short term debt to pay down long term debt... it always blows when you least expect... the only thing people are "absolutely sure" about is the BTC 4 year halving cycle... make what money you can and cycle out to Gold/BTC and prepare to hold 2 cycles... Buffett isn't shopping until late 2028/2029... stay out of leveraged BTC treasury companies or borrowing against your BTC

learned a new Gen Z word today "face card" meaning attractive another version of rizz derived from being able to use your attractive and charismatic face to get things you want "my face card never gets delined"

please measure the market in BTC/Gold terms, not dollars

Midterms put congress and senate out of Trump’s hand. Kinda feel like he played his own sabotage lol. The US dollar is not coming back from this, though nothing changes for the common folk till you end the Fed.

too much DM spam

Just because everyone is doing it doesn't mean it's right.

Fractional reserve banking is a monopolistic, parasitic form of capitalism, incentivized by people agreeing on a price of money over some period of time. The time-value of money is real, and it is unknowable though central bank rates will encourage you to think otherwise. It can only be discovered in ventures sharing both risk and reward, even if asymmetric. Charging or paying interest is like agreeing when the thermometer says 20 degrees, it's actually 21... it's a lie and an inefficiency that privatizes gains and passes on losses to society. Specifically, it quietly compounds to destroys free market price discovery and erodes any sound money base along with savings, and must result in either debt slavery or bank runs. Yet, our ancestors decided to enshrine the system via central banking instead of stamping it out. If we have any loan with interest due on it today, we are complicit. If you need to print money to save lives and defend justice, fine, but inflate the money supply fiscally and honestly, and encourage people to contribute to causes for justice both preventative and existential. Have a standing army, but don't make war if people don't want it. Let's not repeat 2008 and Iraq and let's stop giving up the shirts off our backs and sending kids to die, or dreading raising families. Let's stop playing musical chairs and actually face the music.

France's mesh networks are going to be impressive.

cloudflare browsers cost way too much

I sent this to family 12 months ago before Venezuela or Iran happened. Unfortunately it has aged well and now Intel has happened. Expect more bankruptcies & foreclosures come January and a slew of events after midterms. US needs to win Iran or unlock a 2x productivity boom NOW.

Muslims just love being grifted man, the purefi-fasset-ummah-launchgood alliance is going to blow up in their faces… it’s all dollar denominated and treasury-backed, plugged in to the old system - they are all lovely people Masha Allah, and well intentioned and I’ll give them credit for moving away from solana staking and lending ponzi and migrating to the greatest ponzi on earth, doing USDC-USDT-USDf-USDetc forex + hawala. Wake me up when they pivot to Bitcoin, but they’re going to first try the tokenized Gold standard again after the US bonds move against them and crush their margins before they finally give in to actually adopting BTC and real asset-backed trade finance. Thing is you have to look at their incentives, they are all VC backed, looking for a growth hack and shortcut and there’s nothing more liquid than the USD and selling debt to the government. This is the same critique we have for Guidance Financial in the USA. They’re in bed with the empire, thinking they can change it from within without turning off the debt money machine. How are you going to seduce someone completely hooked on meth?? Life will continue to become unaffordable, war will become inevitable, while some Muslims-in-the-know, or “GEMs” unwittingly feed off of it all. I refuse solutions that don’t work for all mankind. Makes me a good economist and a bad capitalist lol. How are they any different from Malaysia’s palm oil tawarruq money printing and MENA’s BNPL money printing boom backed by LME metals murabahah? The only chance they have is if the USA ended the Fed tomorrow but that’s not going to happen. We think we are invited to the dinner table only to end up being the rice everyone else eats. The best advice I ever got from a founder was that you will never succeed if you don’t have a plan in place for Murphy’s law - that everything that could go wrong, must go wrong, at the most inopportune time. You want real dollar yield solutions while you migrate to sound money? Look at Pfida and Neeyah and just allocate to Gold and BTC. Here this is how lending and money freezing works in Murphy’s law:

X (formerly Twitter)

BLANEY (@cryptoblaney) on X

The Binance hacker might have just pulled off one of the smartest moves I’ve seen in crypto. First, Tether froze $1.5 billion in USDT. Then Cir...

House always wins.

Riba-Free Asymmetry in Business Shares 1. Price-Differential: operation may have better control / benefit and pay a higher cost per share. 2. Sweat Equity: intellectual property or forgoing of salary can yield cheaper shares. 3. Salary: share prices can be the same, or different, but operator earns fees.

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sabr, shukr, tawakkul, and freedom from debt and riba, let's go

I noticed that a lot of debate conversation tries to establish legitimacy based on some historical evidence or story rather than imagining and creating the present and future now and newly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

What if Iblis wants to live forever and end up teaching Islam to people so God keeps delaying the Last Day ☠️

ironically, AI is going to force a whole lot of tech to go open source