My favorite time of the year, SOTU bingo.
Josh L-J, CPA
npub1pw84...dxrj
Just an average guy out here doing stuff and sharing it with the world.
Nostr is spicy today. I'm liking the return of toxic #bitcoin maximalism.
The current thing...
#OpenClaw is other worldly. If this is the infancy of self-hosted AI agents, things are about to get really interesting really quickly.
Take that France.
📉 BTC/Gold: The "Fiat Noise" Filter
Tired of fiat volatility? I built this model to price Bitcoin in Troy Ounces of Gold to find the true signal. More below.
So What's the Strategy?
Identify the Overheated Zone: When the probability of a pullback (grey area) hits >85%, a correction in BTC/Gold is almost certain.
The Buy/Reset Zone: When probability drops <20%, the "cooling off" is over. This usually precedes a massive spike in BTC value relative to Gold.
Where are we now?
As of the January close, we are at 25%. We aren’t quite at the "historical stabilization" floor of 20% yet, but we are close.
So What's My Read?
I expect a steady state where 1 BTC ≈ 15 oz Gold. Instead of Bitcoin decoupling, expect them to march upward together. If Gold rises $1 in fiat, expect Bitcoin to rise roughly $15 to maintain the ratio.
To Recap:
We are approaching the long run average. The "fiat-denominated" rocket ship for both assets is likely just warming up. 🚀🌕
You can review the model here. Any question feel free to DM me or comment below.
#Bitcoin #Gold #SoundMoney #Macro
So What's the Strategy?
Identify the Overheated Zone: When the probability of a pullback (grey area) hits >85%, a correction in BTC/Gold is almost certain.
The Buy/Reset Zone: When probability drops <20%, the "cooling off" is over. This usually precedes a massive spike in BTC value relative to Gold.
Where are we now?
As of the January close, we are at 25%. We aren’t quite at the "historical stabilization" floor of 20% yet, but we are close.
So What's My Read?
I expect a steady state where 1 BTC ≈ 15 oz Gold. Instead of Bitcoin decoupling, expect them to march upward together. If Gold rises $1 in fiat, expect Bitcoin to rise roughly $15 to maintain the ratio.
To Recap:
We are approaching the long run average. The "fiat-denominated" rocket ship for both assets is likely just warming up. 🚀🌕
You can review the model here. Any question feel free to DM me or comment below.
Google Docs
Bitcoin Gold Model