Tl;dr: I think the Coldcard exploiter will be caught, but I don't think victims will be reimbursed.
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Apparently you need minimum 64 GPUs (properly connected) to run Kimi K3. If the coldcard exploiter used this model they would have had to have a very sophisticated institutional setup (maybe there are black hats out there that have managed to construct this?), otherwise would have had to use a service. This means it's likely that they could be found if authorities worked with model servers ... although most likely it's China based?
Sounds like USA frontier models wouldn't have allowed a user to discover the exploit, so probably wouldn't find them by getting a warrant with those labs.
But I also read that one of the block explorers confirmed they have a paid user account that was doing a bunch of lookups that matched the exploiter behaviour and they intend to work with authorities?
I'm thinking it's probably decent odds that they're caught. Maybe they weren't even a full time criminal - possibly someone who had the idea to try it but hasn't taken a lot of other privacy precautions.
Much lower odds of people getting their funds back. If anyone has the ability to recreate the exploit then they could pretend to claim possession of the private keys. Not sure how you'd verify :/
This is definitely specifically a fuckup by Coinkite, but worth pointing out that a RNG being ineffective or compromised was a well known risk - dice rolls, passphrases, multisig were all mitigations.
Even though I use a coldcard, I've never recommended it to a normie who wasn't going to set it up properly (verify firmware, use dice, air gap etc.). I'd sooner recommend Muun or Blue Wallet, and these days I'd say Bitkey. Maybe that's one of the lessons - influencers and Coinkite themselves should have more explicitly steered users away from the quick but risky setup.
Hosepipe ban now for Thames Water customers. I just use the same water but via waterering cans. All this state monopoly has achieved is make my life more inconvenient - how unusual.
Asked my barber if I could pay in bitcoin and got the classic combo of "isn't it too late to invest" and "doesn't Trump have one of those?". Tried to tell him it's just money, but his eyes glazed over. He only accepts cash, so thought he might be more receptive.
More and more convinced after interactions like this that most people can't be orange pilled. They will do what everyone else does. Bitcoin needs to be used by bitcoiners, and available to those who want it - but we won't convince even close to a small minority. That's fine as long as we can preserve the ability to spend and save with sovereignty.
Lol, asked Claude to give me 5 examples of women who have prominent Adams apples since I'm trying to explain it to my daughter, and it told me no because I might be at risk of being transphobic ๐
At the last bottom there were lots of people saying we're probably at the bottom. In this example Bitcoin still dipped another 25% briefly afterwards, but it was pretty much the bottom regardless.
I sometimes think everyone calling the bottom is a bad sign, but historically the stronger metrics driven analysts have been quite predictive. From September 2022:
The Peter McCormack Show: Has the Bitcoin Price Bottomed Out? With The Rational Root - WBD550
Episode webpage: https://whatbitcoindid.libsyn.com/has-the-bitcoin-price-bottomed-out-with-the-rational-root-wbd550
Media file:
People who have been terrible managers their whole careers, who give unclear instructions and don't know how to measure progress: "Follow me for advice on the exact right way to use AI"