This is how the market’s expectations for rates at the September ’24 FOMC (the last meeting before the ‘24 election) have changed in just 1 month. 6 months ago they were convinced we’d be seeing lower rates next month. Crazy times.

The Reddit protest would have been far more effective if the people protesting were actually withholding something of value. But they don’t pay for Reddit with money, they pay with their attention. The attention of a single entitled unemployed communist rounds to a value of ≈$0. If a vast majority of Reddit users had cared, maybe it would have worked. But as always, they grossly overestimated their niche concerns and assumed they were the voice of the majority when they represent a tiny minority of Reddit users. There are several lessons in that.

Here are the Treasury Auctions that Yellen has run since the debt ceiling deal was passed. The vast majority of the debt she has sold ($553B of $643B total) has been short duration (<= 1y) and relatively high rate (>= 4.85%). This is what I expected, but I haven’t seen anyone talk about the details so was curious.

Anyone know the average duration of China’s US treasuries? If they dump a trillion while Yellen is trying to dump a couple trillion, boy howdy that could get interesting. Would be a hell of a thing for an incumbent president to face in an election year.

Damus now has a tip share feature that cuts Apple out of their 33%. That’s going to end up being the issue. Just let me pay for a Premium version and let Apple have their cut and the problem will likely be solved.

You can always tell when Bruce Fenton’s rent seeking is being threatened. He FUD’s bitcoin self custody as hard as he defends shitcoinery.

YouTubers cater to the people who have the least money to spend on whatever the subject of the channel is because that’s what a free viewer model incentivizes. You need reach, and the long tail is extremely price sensitive. If you had a paid viewer model only, I bet you’d get the exact opposite effect. The people willing to pay for content on a subject would be looking at the premium solutions and wouldn’t be price sensitive.

Apollo, the Reddit app, made 7 billion fucking API requests in a single fucking month. 🤦‍♂️ According to their own math, it would cost them $2.50/month/user to pay what Reddit is charging. Meaning they have ≈800K users. Charge $10/month/user. Pay Apple their 33% and Reddit their $2.50 and pocket the $4.10 left over. $3.28M/month. Of course, only a tiny fraction of the current 800K users would actually pay $10/month, but then you won’t be making 7B API requests/month and you won’t be paying $2M/month to Reddit either. Funny how charging for stuff actually forces people to decide whether it is worth using it or not.

Perfect timing. Right as the shitcoin market implodes, the Ledger folks destroyed their reputation in the one market that cares most about self custody in an effort to appeal more to the shitcoiners.

X (formerly Twitter)

Michaël Roerade (@MichaelRoerade) on X

Looks like Ledger's Operation Self-destruct has been an unequivocal success... #BTCPrague

For people wondering what Zapervisements in Damus look like, here’s my zap on this note: View quoted note →

I never thought I’d live to see the reductio ad absurdum end game of the ERA arguments I had to listen to as a kid growing up in the ‘70s play out in high definition technicolor, but here we are. Women wanted this and insisted on it for decades, at some point they’ll have to decide what they value most. History tells us they will, and when they do, the fallout will be ugly.

There is now a potential reason for self-zapping (fapping). If someone has the top zap and you don’t want it to show up as such, you can fap+1 to get rid of it. I’m ambivalent about it but it should be an interesting experiment, if nothing else.

It’s going to be interesting to see what happens when a majority of women return to worrying more about getting robbed, raped, and/or murdered in public than they worry about tiny minorities of people getting their feelings hurt. The whiplash is going to be something to behold.

I disabled DCA on Swan a couple months ago. The idea of having a months worth of DCA trapped in Prime Trust at a time became more than I could stomach. Glad I got ahead of it this time. Last fall I got complacent and about shit myself when Prime Trust started behaving very sketchy and I had too much corn in two Prime Trust accounts via Swan and Strike. Hope nobody gets rugged by them, but if you have a Prime Trust backed account, you should probably assume they are close to freezing it.

How it feels to compete with an entire sector filled with software companies that are run by non-software people when you have a team of the best software people you have ever worked with.

Peter on his bank fraud adventure in December ‘20: “I cringe as fuck.”

The Strike withdrawal limit got cut in half not long ago ($6K -> $3K). It will be interesting to see if we get more of that.

Will they cry again?

If Solana is an unregistered security and I go on my podcast with 3 of my billionaire friends and brag about dumping that unregistered security on retail after being air dropped that unregistered security explicitly so I could promote it, do I have any legal liability?

Broadcasting to the world what makes you cum is creepy. Making it your entire personality is a sign you have an untreated mental disorder. Everyone understands that, sometimes.