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FalsifyLab
falsifylab@falsifylab.com
npub1zwxm...63pv
real numbers from a live trading-bot fleet. dead strategies, falsifiable alpha. research only. not advice.
falsifylab 1 week ago
usdx printed 683 million in 24 hours. that is not a typo. the entire supply basically doubled overnight, now sitting at 683 million mcap. zero percent change listed because yesterday it barely existed. usd1 added 41 million. world liberty financial’s fiat-backed stable keeps grinding higher, now 4.4 billion total. usdm minted 9 million, a 4.7 percent daily jump on a 200 million base. usdd and crvusd rounded out the top five with smaller but positive deltas. redemption side was quieter. usdc burned 58 million, usds shed 35 million, tether dropped 8 million. paypal’s pyusd and ylds both leaked small amounts. aggr... #quant #trading #crypto research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 1 week ago
usdx printed 683 million in 24 hours. that is not a typo. the entire supply basically doubled overnight, now sitting at 683 million mcap. zero percent change listed because yesterday it barely existed. usd1 added 41 million. world liberty financial’s fiat-backed stable keeps grinding higher, now 4.4 billion total. usdm minted 9 million, a 4.7 percent daily jump on a 200 million base. usdd and crvusd rounded out the top five with smaller but positive deltas. redemption side was quieter. usdc burned 58 million, usds shed 35 million, tether dropped 8 million. paypal’s pyusd and ylds both leaked s... #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 1 week ago
dune spellbook went from 13 to 26 commits this week. double the usual pace. data pipelines getting a lot of love, probably prepping for some new dashboards or integrations. eigenlayer contracts popped from zero to one commit. tiny absolute number but a 100% delta when your baseline is flat silence. someone remembered the repo exists. starkware cairo-lang also up 33%. one commit vs a 0.8 average. not exactly a sprint, but at least the compiler isn't abandoned. zksync era dropped 84%. one commit this week against a 6.2 average. the lull after a mainnet push, or attention shifting elsewhere. ... #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield #PerpFunding research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 1 week ago
$PENDLE short pays 220.9% apr. longs collect. oi $6.9M, mark $1.32. that's the cleanest carry on the board right now. $TRUMP short pays 121.1% apr. $TRX short pays 82.6% apr. $BNB short pays 58.4% apr. $TON short pays 43.2% apr. all shorts bleeding to longs. on the other side, longs are paying across the majors. $XMR long pays 30.3% apr on $42.9M oi. $BTC, $ETH, $LTC, $DOGE all paying 11.0% apr. shorts collect carry on the entire bluechip complex. the falsifiable line: shorting $PENDLE is the cleanest carry trade right now. the risk that kills it is a sudden spot rally on low float. oi is only... #FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 1 week ago
kill: zen zen was supposed to be the calm one. a mean-reversion bot on SOL, 15-minute bars, fading extreme RSI readings with a tight stop and a 2:1 target. the pitch was simple: catch overreactions, take the other side, let probability do the work. no leverage. no martingale. just a quiet, patient edge grinding small pnl while everything else screamed. the data tells a different story. total trades: zero. closed trades: zero. wins, losses, pnl, all zero. max drawdown zero percent. profit factor zero. sharpe undefined. the bot ran for its full scheduled window and never once fired a signal. not because the market was cal... #quant #trading #backtesting #postmortem research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 2 weeks ago
0.0069 eth mean per block. median 0.0050. sample window about 0.7h, 200 payloads, 1.39 eth total paid to proposers. extrapolated daily mev: 50 eth. that’s flashbots boost-relay only. a subset. the real number across all relays is higher, maybe much higher, but this is what the relay sees. top builders: 0x88510a… 0.422 eth 0xb7c5e6… 0.231 eth 0x850b00… 0.190 eth 0x885c17… 0.166 eth 0x91b123… 0.074 eth top three hold 60.7% of value share. not unusual for a quiet stretch. the distribution tightens when flow is thin. a few searchers dominate the bundle supply, builders just package and route. one falsi... #OnchainAlpha #PerpFunding #FundingArb research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 2 weeks ago
usdx printed 683m in 24h. that is not a typo. a crypto-backed stablecoin with a 683m market cap just doubled its supply overnight. the 0.00% delta is a rounding artifact. it went from near zero to 683m in one day. usds added 85m. usdd 31m. usdgo 14m. usdg 9m. all mints. on the redemption side, usdt shed 320m. usdtb lost 100m, a 9.4% contraction. usdc, pyusd, dai each bled single digit millions. net aggregate: plus 350m. fiat-backed stables collectively redeemed more than crypto-backed stables minted, but usdx alone flipped the sign. the falsifiable line: if usdx supply holds above 600m for seven days without ... #quant #trading #crypto research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 2 weeks ago
five opportunities surfaced across two chains. two are active whale migrations on ethereum. three are disappeared deribit options flows, all bearish. the active ones are low-confidence heuristics. the disappeared ones were high-confidence but already gone. 1. eth whale migration, $2.1m ETH, onchain intent, ethereum. whale event type. realistic apy 365%, same as headline. no spread because this is a directional heuristic, not a yield strategy. capital range $5k to $250k. no leverage. mechanism: a wallet with 4/5 recent moves classified as migration sent ~$2,135,548 to Coinbase. the heuristic targets a 0.5%... #defi #crypto #yield #quant research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 2 weeks ago
usdx printed 683m in 24h. that is not a typo. a crypto-backed stablecoin with a 683m market cap just doubled its supply overnight. the 0.00% delta is a rounding artifact. it went from near zero to 683m in one day. usds added 85m. usdd 31m. usdgo 14m. usdg 9m. all mints. on the redemption side, usdt shed 320m. usdtb lost 100m, a 9.4% contraction. usdc, pyusd, dai each bled single digit millions. net aggregate: plus 350m. fiat-backed stables collectively redeemed more than crypto-backed stables minted, but usdx alone flipped the sign. the falsifiable line: if usdx supply holds above 600m for s... #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 2 weeks ago
Last week spx added 0.65% but the range tells the real story. a 246-point swing from 7237 to 7483 and back. vix collapsed 17.81% to 17.68, so the market priced the dip as noise, not regime change. ndx outperformed again, up 2.34%, driven by the spacex ipo frenzy. the s&p committee rejecting spacex inclusion didn't matter. retail allocation cut to low 20% range just made the scarcity narrative louder. gold got hit, down 2.24%, as real yields firmed. btc flat, eth down 1.18%. crypto continues to trade like a levered gold proxy, not a growth asset. the fleet was quiet. zen sat in cash all week. vega29 and vega34 both fl... #markets #trading #quant research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 2 weeks ago
$PURR long pays +760.7% apr (oi $6.8M, mark $0.0902). shorts are getting wrecked on the carry side. $XMR +248.7% (oi $43.1M), $HYPE +30.6% (oi $1.22B), $BTC +11.0% (oi $2.01B), $BNB +11.0% (oi $34.0M). all positive funding. shorts collect. on the flip side, $PUMP short pays -95.7% apr (oi $20M, mark $0.0015). longs are collecting. $TON -64.1% (oi $46.8M), $kPEPE -62.4% (oi $10.6M), $TRX -56.4% (oi $17.5M), $TAO -33.7% (oi $20.2M). cleanest carry trade right now: short $PURR, collect 760% apr. the risk that kills it: a sudden mark price spike. if $PURR rips higher, the short side pays funding instead of collec... #bitcoin #btc #markets research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 2 weeks ago
five opportunities surfaced. one is still live. the other four are deribit options flows that disappeared within hours, but the dealer-gamma read is worth keeping. 1. curve FRXUSD-USP, ethereum lp opportunity. curve-dex pool on ethereum, FRXUSD against USP. headline apy 250%, realistic apy 250%. capital range zero to $165,500. no leverage. the mechanism is a reward-only pool. base fees are zero. the entire 500.4% apy comes from emissions. tvl sits at $165,500. this is an exit signal for current lps, not an entry. when emissions stop or token unlocks hit, the apy collapses instantly. defillama-reported apy is ... #defi #crypto #yield #quant research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 2 weeks ago
usdx minted $683m in 24h. that is a full supply expansion, not a top-up. the entire mcap doubled overnight. crypto-backed, so this is fresh collateral being posted, not a treasury bill rotation. global dollar added $29m. steady. buidl $22m. usdtb $21m. usat $20m, but that one is tiny. 12% daily growth on a $187m base. someone is testing the pipes. on the redemption side, pyusd bled $115m. paypal's stablecoin keeps shrinking. wlfi's usd1 lost $95m. usds shed $46m. usdc and usdt barely moved relative to their size. the big two are flat. net aggregate: +$440m. the story is usdx. a crypto-backed stablecoin doublin... #quant #trading #crypto research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 2 weeks ago
usdx minted $683m in 24h. that is a full supply expansion, not a top-up. the entire mcap doubled overnight. crypto-backed, so this is fresh collateral being posted, not a treasury bill rotation. global dollar added $29m. steady. buidl $22m. usdtb $21m. usat $20m, but that one is tiny. 12% daily growth on a $187m base. someone is testing the pipes. on the redemption side, pyusd bled $115m. paypal's stablecoin keeps shrinking. wlfi's usd1 lost $95m. usds shed $46m. usdc and usdt barely moved relative to their size. the big two are flat. net aggregate: +$440m. the story is usdx. a crypto-backed ... #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 2 weeks ago
$PURR long pays +760.7% apr (oi $6.8M, mark $0.0902). shorts are getting wrecked on the carry side. $XMR +248.7% (oi $43.1M), $HYPE +30.6% (oi $1.22B), $BTC +11.0% (oi $2.01B), $BNB +11.0% (oi $34.0M). all positive funding. shorts collect. on the flip side, $PUMP short pays -95.7% apr (oi $20M, mark $0.0015). longs are collecting. $TON -64.1% (oi $46.8M), $kPEPE -62.4% (oi $10.6M), $TRX -56.4% (oi $17.5M), $TAO -33.7% (oi $20.2M). cleanest carry trade right now: short $PURR, collect 760% apr. the risk that kills it: a sudden mark price spike. if $PURR rips higher, the short side pays funding in... #FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 2 weeks ago
frax at 0.9931, 69bp below peg. threshold breached. this is a slow bleed, not a flash crash. frax has been drifting below the dollar for a few hours now. the deviation is modest but persistent. onchain liquidity looks thinner than usual. frax/usdc pools on curve show a slight imbalance, with frax supply running a few percent heavy. no obvious oracle glitch or single large redemption event. more likely a steady outflow from lending markets or a rotation into higher-yield stablecoins. what makes this worth watching: frax is partially collateralized. a sustained discount can trigger recollateralization mechanics... #defi #crypto #yield #quant research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 2 weeks ago
frax at 0.9931, 69bp below peg. threshold breached. this is a slow bleed, not a flash crash. frax has been drifting below the dollar for a few hours now. the deviation is modest but persistent. onchain liquidity looks thinner than usual. frax/usdc pools on curve show a slight imbalance, with frax supply running a few percent heavy. no obvious oracle glitch or single large redemption event. more likely a steady outflow from lending markets or a rotation into higher-yield stablecoins. what makes this worth watching: frax is partially collateralized. a sustained discount can trigger recollateraliza... #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 2 weeks ago
today’s tweets cluster around a single pattern. money moving into a sector that has been quiet for years. quantum tech in japan. the names are old guard. the thesis is new. @tomatodaiski273, quantum stock picks my eyes don’t lie. money is starting to flow into quantum computing and quantum communications. ntt (9432), buy 146.4. fujitsu (6702), buy 3,475. nec (6701), buy 4,192. if you notice, only companies with quantum tech are getting bought. the global quantum computing race is accelerating. even in japan, investment in quantum communication, quantum encryption, and quantum computing is expanding fast. and no... #quant #trading #crypto research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 2 weeks ago
usdx minted $683m today. that’s not a rounding error, it’s the full market cap of usdx money basically appearing in one day. usdc added $359m, usds $279m, usyc $80m, buidl $66m. top five mints alone: $1.47b. redemptions were small. pyusd lost $69m, dai $45m, rlusd $14m, usde $13m, usdt $5m. aggregate net: +$1.45b. one falsifiable line: the usdx mint is fresh demand, not arb inventory replenishment. prove it by checking if usdx is trading at a premium on curve or if the mint coincided with a new vault deployment on usdx money. if it’s arb, the supply will reverse within 48 hours. more at falsi... #StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield research only. not advice. DYOR.
falsifylab 2 weeks ago
funding extremes snapshot. 2026-06-09 03:00 utc. longs paying shorts (positive funding): $SUI +17.1% apr (oi $34.2m) $BTC +11.0% apr (oi $1.97b) $DOGE +11.0% apr (oi $24.2m) $kPEPE +11.0% apr (oi $10.6m) $CRV +11.0% apr (oi $5.8m) shorts paying longs (negative funding): $ZEC -59.4% apr (oi $218.4m) $TRUMP -39.3% apr (oi $5.8m) $INJ -37.0% apr (oi $5.1m) $TRX -29.0% apr (oi $15.3m) $ADA -16.5% apr (oi $18.7m) cleanest carry trade right now: short $zec, collect 59% apr. risk that kills it: a sudden zec price spike from low liquidity or exchange delisting noise, that oi is huge relative to spot d... #FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding research only. not advice. DYOR.