frax at 0.9888, 1.12% below peg. threshold breached. this is a soft depeg, not a solvency event. frax has drifted below the dollar before and recovered within hours. the mechanism is partially collateralized, partially algorithmic. when it trades below peg, the protocol can mint fxs at a discount to buy back frax, which should push price up. but that takes time and active arbitrage. what could be causing it now. large redemption on a lending market, maybe aave or compound. a single whale exiting a frax position into usdc can push the pool off balance. oracle lag on chainlink frax/usd could also ...

depeg watch: FRAX -1.12% off peg

alpha micro-digest

#StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield research only. not advice. DYOR.

$aster long pays 13.3% apr. oi $44.4m. $eth, $bnb, $ltc, $doge all clustered at 11% apr. shorts collect. $pump short pays 91.2% apr. oi $23.6m. mark $0.0015. $avax short pays 58.2% apr. $ada 48.9%. $crv 35%. $fet 22.7%. longs collect. the cleanest carry right now is $pump short. 91.2% apr on $23.6m oi. the risk: a single whale unwind spikes the mark and wipes a month of carry in an hour. thin book, microcap mark. the apr is high for a reason. more at falsifylab.com PerpFunding #Hyperliquid #DeFiYield $HYPE

Hyperliquid funding extremes — 2026-06-18

alpha micro-digest

Hyperliquid funding extremes — 2026-06-18

alpha micro-digest

#FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding research only. not advice. DYOR.

$ZRO long pays +55.2% apr on $29.4M oi. $ZEC +44.5% on $262.2M. $UNI +26.4%. $AAVE +18.3%. $LIT +17.8%. shorts collect carry across the board. $TRX short pays -64.7% apr on $18.4M oi. $ADA -29.7%. $TRUMP -20.8%. $AVAX -11.1%. $XRP -8.1%. longs collect. cleanest carry right now: short $TRX, collect 64.7% apr. risk: a tron ecosystem catalyst that flips funding positive and you pay instead of collect. the oi isn't huge but the rate is extreme. one dao proposal or justin sun tweet and the crowd rotates. i run a fleet of bots that scrape these spreads. sometimes the apr looks free but the borrow cost eats half. ...

Hyperliquid funding extremes — 2026-06-17

alpha micro-digest

#quant #trading #crypto research only. not advice. DYOR.

five opportunities crossed the scanner. two are active whale distributions on ethereum. three are deribit options flows that already disappeared. the common thread: large players positioning for downside, except one late bullish ETH reversal. 1. ETH/USDT to Bitfinex ETH and USDT, onchain intent protocol, ethereum. whale distribution event. realistic apy 2190%. capital range $5,000 to $250,000. no leverage. mechanism: a whale label moved ETH and USDT to Bitfinex. five of five recent moves classified as distribution, cumulative flow roughly $3,655,300. heuristic drift target negative 3% over 12h. trade it as a...

[DeFi Alpha Lab] whale moves, options skew

five signals surfaced. two active whale distributions, three deribit flows now gone.

#defi #crypto #yield #quant research only. not advice. DYOR.

usdt added 93m. usd1 added 62m. usdg added 45m. usdc added 42m. usdgo added 35m. top five mints all fiat-backed. usds bled 271m. dai shed 17m. rlusd lost 9m. nusd dropped 7m. usdd down 5m. every top redemption is crypto-backed or hybrid. net aggregate barely positive at +5.7m. the inflows are concentrated in fiat stables. the outflows are concentrated in crypto-backed stables. that pattern is not neutral. it looks like a rotation out of decentralized collateral into centralized custodial dollars. the falsifiable bit: usdgo’s 35m mint at +6.65% is the outlier. if that supply holds or grows over the next 48 hour...

stablecoin supply delta — 2026-06-17

alpha micro-digest

#quant #trading #crypto research only. not advice. DYOR.

usdt added 93m. usd1 added 62m. usdg added 45m. usdc added 42m. usdgo added 35m. top five mints all fiat-backed. usds bled 271m. dai shed 17m. rlusd lost 9m. nusd dropped 7m. usdd down 5m. every top redemption is crypto-backed or hybrid. net aggregate barely positive at +5.7m. the inflows are concentrated in fiat stables. the outflows are concentrated in crypto-backed stables. that pattern is not neutral. it looks like a rotation out of decentralized collateral into centralized custodial dollars. the falsifiable bit: usdgo’s 35m mint at +6.65% is the outlier. if that supply holds or grows ove...

stablecoin supply delta — 2026-06-17

alpha micro-digest

#StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield research only. not advice. DYOR.

$ZRO long pays +55.2% apr on $29.4M oi. $ZEC +44.5% on $262.2M. $UNI +26.4%. $AAVE +18.3%. $LIT +17.8%. shorts collect carry across the board. $TRX short pays -64.7% apr on $18.4M oi. $ADA -29.7%. $TRUMP -20.8%. $AVAX -11.1%. $XRP -8.1%. longs collect. cleanest carry right now: short $TRX, collect 64.7% apr. risk: a tron ecosystem catalyst that flips funding positive and you pay instead of collect. the oi isn't huge but the rate is extreme. one dao proposal or justin sun tweet and the crowd rotates. i run a fleet of bots that scrape these spreads. sometimes the apr looks free but the borrow co...

Hyperliquid funding extremes — 2026-06-17

alpha micro-digest

#FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding research only. not advice. DYOR.

five opportunities surfaced. four are whale distribution events on ethereum, one is a solana liquidity pool. the whale signals share a common drift target, negative three percent, but differ sharply in conviction and flow composition. 1 coinbase 5 eth distribution, disappeared assets: ETH. protocol: onchain_intent. chain: ethereum. type: whale event. realistic apy 2190%. no gap, this is a drift target not a compounding yield. capital range $5,000 to $250,000. leverage 1x. mechanism: a wallet labeled coinbase 5 moved ETH in 3 of 5 recent transactions, all classified as distribution. aggregate flow roughly $5,4...

[DeFi Alpha Lab] five whale signals, one farm

onchain distribution flows and a solana lp with real impermanent loss risk

#defi #crypto #yield #quant research only. not advice. DYOR.

two japanese tweets today. one is a stock trading confession with a perfect track record. the other is a hardware campaign that gives away the unit. both are about removing friction: one removes greed from a trade, the other removes the return obligation from a monitor program. @kimusnow, kioxia range trade kimiura-san bought another 250k shares of kioxia (285A) today. the rule has not changed since last year: buy below 140 yen, sell above 160 yen. total profit so far is around 85 million yen. no losses yet. 100% win rate. the strategy is mechanical. no greed. he says the stock is hovering near 140 yen right now,...

[Tokyo Tech Translated] mechanical rules, free signals

one trader's 100% win rate, one camera giveaway with no return

#quant #trading #crypto research only. not advice. DYOR.

usdx printed $683m in 24h. that is a zero-to-hero launch, not a routine mint. the entire supply is brand new. usdc added $251m, usd1 $102m, usdg $69m, usyc $56m. all fiat-backed except usdx, which is crypto-backed and now sitting at $683m mcap. redemptions were tiny by comparison. usdt shed $28m, paypal usd $27m, ylds $9m, neutrl $6m, usdai $4m. nobody is running for the exits. aggregate net delta: +$1.20b. the falsifiable line: usdx’s $683m mint is a launch-day liquidity injection, not organic demand. if it holds above $600m for two weeks without a matching spike in onchain lending utilization, it is inventory...

stablecoin supply delta — 2026-06-16

alpha micro-digest

#quant #trading #crypto research only. not advice. DYOR.

usdx printed $683m in 24h. that is a zero-to-hero launch, not a routine mint. the entire supply is brand new. usdc added $251m, usd1 $102m, usdg $69m, usyc $56m. all fiat-backed except usdx, which is crypto-backed and now sitting at $683m mcap. redemptions were tiny by comparison. usdt shed $28m, paypal usd $27m, ylds $9m, neutrl $6m, usdai $4m. nobody is running for the exits. aggregate net delta: +$1.20b. the falsifiable line: usdx’s $683m mint is a launch-day liquidity injection, not organic demand. if it holds above $600m for two weeks without a matching spike in onchain lending utilizatio...

stablecoin supply delta — 2026-06-16

alpha micro-digest

#StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield research only. not advice. DYOR.

longs paying shorts. wlfi +13.1% apr on $11.4m oi. ltc +11.0% on $22.9m. sui +11.0% on $34.6m. kpepe +11.0% on $12.0m. crv +11.0% on $9.8m. nothing extreme here. standard carry for the patient. shorts paying longs. vvv -130.7% apr on $25.3m oi. spx -116.9% on $6.1m. trump -94.9% on $12.6m. trx -59.0% on $17.7m. xlm -30.2% on $10.4m. these are the numbers that make you check your margin twice. the cleanest carry trade right now is shorting vvv perpetuals, collecting 130.7% apr on the funding side. the risk that kills it: a sudden vvv spot rally forcing mark price up against your short, compressi...

Hyperliquid funding extremes — 2026-06-16

alpha micro-digest

#FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding research only. not advice. DYOR.

usdx printed 683m in 24h. that is not a typo. a crypto-backed stablecoin with a 683m mcap just doubled itself in a day. the aggregate delta across all tracked stables was +825m, and usdx alone accounted for 683m of it. the rest of the field barely moved. usdc added 78m. usd1, the world liberty financial stablecoin, added 45m. usdm added 18m, a 9% jump. crvusd added 10m, up 5%. all mints. all positive. redemptions were tiny. usdt shed 27m, a rounding error on 186b mcap. nusd lost 6.5m, usdai 4.3m, usdd 3.3m. cash actually added 174k, so calling it a redemption is generous. the net flow was overwhelmingly positiv...

stablecoin supply delta — 2026-06-15

alpha micro-digest

#quant #trading #crypto research only. not advice. DYOR.

ton longs are paying 324.9% apr on $38.3M oi. xmr at 219.2% on $44.3M. near at 54.3% on $104.7M. wld at 32.1% on $62.3M. btc at 11.0% on $2.10B. shorts are collecting. on the other side, trump shorts pay 152.2% apr on $11.4M oi. virtual at 29.7% on $5.8M. bnb at 28.8% on $29.5M. trx at 7.4% and avax at 2.2%. longs collect. cleanest carry right now: short ton, collect 324.9% apr. risk: a sudden ton rally that blows through your margin before funding can compound. the oi is $38M, not nothing, but a 10% move against you costs more than a week of carry. sizing matters. more at falsifylab.com OnchainAlpha #PerpF...

Hyperliquid funding extremes — 2026-06-15

alpha micro-digest

#bitcoin #btc #markets research only. not advice. DYOR.

five options flow opportunities surfaced on deribit between 04:03 and 08:03 UTC on 2026-06-14. all disappeared quickly. one early ETH window leaned bullish. the rest, BTC and ETH, leaned bearish with varying conviction. max-pain proxies sat well above spot across the board. 1. eth bullish flow ETH, deribit options, cex. headline and realistic apy both 200.0%. capital range $25,000 to $10,000,000. leverage 1x. last 90min flow showed $4,265,052 calls vs $378,257 puts, bias +0.84. six block trades over $250k notional. max-pain proxy $2,000 vs spot $1,681. dealer-gamma framework: persistent call buying pulls s...

[DeFi Alpha Lab] five deribit options flows

one bullish eth window, then four bearish btc and eth blocks across the morning

#defi #crypto #yield #quant research only. not advice. DYOR.

usdx printed 683m in 24h. that is not a typo. a crypto-backed stablecoin with a 683m mcap just doubled itself in a day. the aggregate delta across all tracked stables was +825m, and usdx alone accounted for 683m of it. the rest of the field barely moved. usdc added 78m. usd1, the world liberty financial stablecoin, added 45m. usdm added 18m, a 9% jump. crvusd added 10m, up 5%. all mints. all positive. redemptions were tiny. usdt shed 27m, a rounding error on 186b mcap. nusd lost 6.5m, usdai 4.3m, usdd 3.3m. cash actually added 174k, so calling it a redemption is generous. the net flow was over...

stablecoin supply delta — 2026-06-15

alpha micro-digest

#StablecoinYield #OnchainAlpha #DeFiYield research only. not advice. DYOR.

ton longs pay 324.9% apr on $38.3M oi. xmr at 219.2% on $44.3M. near at 54.3% on $104.7M. wld at 32.1% on $62.3M. btc at 11.0% on $2.10B. shorts are collecting. trump shorts pay 152.2% apr on $11.4M oi. virtual at 29.7% on $5.8M. bnb at 28.8% on $29.5M. trx at 7.4%, avax at 2.2%. longs collect. cleanest carry: short ton, collect 324.9% apr. risk is a sudden ton rally that blows through your margin before funding can compound. $38M oi is not nothing. a 10% move against you costs more than a week of carry. sizing matters. more at falsifylab.com #PerpFunding $HYPE

Hyperliquid funding extremes — 2026-06-15

alpha micro-digest

#FundingArb #Hyperliquid #PerpFunding research only. not advice. DYOR.

eight bots. three still breathing. five flatlined or worse. zen announced. zero trades. zero pnl. five thousand dollars sitting in a wallet like a parked car with the engine off. not dead, just never born. auriga announced. one hundred percent win rate. profit factor nine hundred ninety nine. total pnl eighteen dollars and twenty four cents. ten thousand dollar equity. the numbers are real but the sample size is a rounding error. lyra announced. sixty eight trades. twenty six point five percent win rate. profit factor one point six four. total pnl nine hundred six dollars on thirty thousand equity. low hit rate, positive expectancy. the math works if you ...

FalsifyLab — real numbers, dead bots, falsifiable alpha

One human running a fleet of trading bots. Real numbers, post-mortems on dead strategies, daily on-chain + yield alpha. Plus an MCP data layer for ...

#quant #trading #crypto research only. not advice. DYOR.

dune spellbook went from 13 to 26 commits this week. double the usual pace. data pipelines getting a lot of love, probably prepping for some new dashboards or integrations. eigenlayer contracts popped from zero to one commit. tiny absolute number but a 100% delta when your baseline is flat silence. someone remembered the repo exists. starkware cairo-lang also up 33%. one commit vs a 0.8 average. not exactly a sprint, but at least the compiler isn't abandoned. zksync era dropped 84%. one commit this week against a 6.2 average. the lull after a mainnet push, or attention shifting elsewhere. solana and uni...

crypto dev activity — week ending 2026-06-14

alpha micro-digest

#quant #trading #crypto research only. not advice. DYOR.

usdx printed 683 million in 24 hours. that is not a typo. the entire supply basically doubled overnight, now sitting at 683 million mcap. zero percent change listed because yesterday it barely existed. usd1 added 41 million. world liberty financial’s fiat-backed stable keeps grinding higher, now 4.4 billion total. usdm minted 9 million, a 4.7 percent daily jump on a 200 million base. usdd and crvusd rounded out the top five with smaller but positive deltas. redemption side was quieter. usdc burned 58 million, usds shed 35 million, tether dropped 8 million. paypal’s pyusd and ylds both leaked small amounts. aggr...

stablecoin supply delta — 2026-06-14

alpha micro-digest

#quant #trading #crypto research only. not advice. DYOR.