China Morning Missive This headline is spot on perfect. A major misstep by Trump 1.0 was to loudly and publicly point out all attack vectors on China. The folks in Beijing took notice and have spent the past four years to do all that was possible to address those issues. This is whey I continue to state that “Keynes is Dead in China”. The hard choice to deleverage on a systemic basis is just one of the larger issues. China is ready. What is clear, however, is that America is very much NOT ready. That needs to change.

Given that past is prologue, expect fuckery in price action during this week. Low volume American Thanksgiving week.

Unplugging for the weekend. Hangzhou road trip with the misses and puppies. Be well all and peace!

With a move to buy a banana and duct tape, it’s only a matter of time when another “self criticism” is required. Just like 2019 @jack https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/instead-of-lunch-with-warren-buffett-chinese-entrepreneur-eats-humble-pie/2019/07/25/b6370728-ae94-11e9-9411-a608f9d0c2d3_story.html

The China Evening Missive With the “King” sucking all the air out of the room today figured it would be worthwhile to see if China is weighing in on the topic. It is, and found the following taken from the China Daily article of particular interest “As many countries have embraced "de-dollarization" following the US' abuse of the dollar's status, its excessive currency issuance and serious overdrawing of the dollar credit, the change in attitude toward Bitcoin may be a new attempt by the US to address the dollar's weakening international status.” Separately, I did check in with my “guy” and the local P2P market remains as vibrant as ever. Full story linked here:

Gamble on Bitcoin bet bid to reduce national debt

Bitcoin prices have been rocketing in recent days, hitting $93,000 early on Thursday morning and then remaining above $90,000.

Thought it was a good time to share this epic lore from days gone past. Seems timely to share about the “Bear Whale”. Can’t believe it’s been 10 years!! 'BearWhale' rattles bitcoin world

CNBC

Bitcoin's 'BearWhale' and the future of a cryptocurrency

Artwork and theories have proliferated after an unknown trader caused a major dip in the bitcoin market with a huge limit order.

China Morning Missive It continues to be a “wait and see” approach to the economy here in #China. The PBoC decided to keep key interest rates at current levels. There is still no “bazooka” fiscal stimulus (which is great to see). Meanwhile, it is highly likely that the Beijing leadership is working overtime to get a handle on what sort of action Trump 2.0 will take next year. Moves, such as tariffs, wouldn’t come as a surprise and my outlook has been, and will remain, that China has spent the past four years doing everything possible to address all attack vectors. What I am fairly confident is that 2025 will be a knock down, drag out fight between China and the US.

Wanted to send out a reminder. George Washington became Commander and Chief of the Continental Army at the ripe age of 43 It’s never too late to make a difference in this world.

For all of you out there fighting the good fight remember the immortal worlds of local New York news anchor Ernie Anastos “Keep fucking that chicken”

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The China Evening Missive There’s a mad scramble on. Under the uncertainty and potential threat of tariffs, partners and allies alike are turning to ……. China? It does really pain me to see how a 20-year American strategy which alienated so many resulted in China picking up geopolitical gains. I’ve no idea what Trump 2.0 has in store with regards to tariffs and I do desperately hope his administration focuses heavily on addressing domestic issues. Still, China is a low time preference country when it comes to strategic game play. Additionally, China’s foreign policy doesn’t follow the approach of “you’re either with us or against us.” What I can tell you is that I sure as hell wouldn’t want to be Mexico right now.

#China Morning Missive. The Great Game 2.0 is now heating up. We have here the Chinese backing out from a meeting with the American Defense Secretary. Meanwhile the Trump transition team is being asked is China’s preferential trade status will be repealed. A ton of moving parts with no visibility as to what, exactly, will be followed through on come January 2025. All I will say is that China learned a number of lessons during the first Trump administration. The Beijing leadership has had four years to plan accordingly, but it remains unclear whether all attack vectors have been addressed. It also remains uncertain as to whether or not Trump will be able to herd all of his various cats to take any material action vis a vis China. 2025 is going to be pretty volatile.

One of the most successful tactics #China deploys is “divide and conquer”. Given the outlook for geopolitics under a second Trump administration, China looks set to press its advantage and gain ground in doing so. American policy needs to “check its priors” as the kids like to say. China isn’t the Soviet Union. A policy of containment simply won’t work. In fact, it might very well prove to be grossly counterproductive.

Something’s I’ve never understood. Why is it that people, when vehemently disagreeing, resort to ad hominem attacks? I mean, I do understand why, and yet don’t understand how those taking the ad hominem route don’t see that doing so negates the position they are advocating. Counterproductive.

What does the average Chinese think/feel about Trump? Here is one anecdote……my very independent thinking wife.

Big week ahead. First there's APEC in Peru and then next week is the G20 in Rio. Am expecting Xi Jinping to press his advantage with the Europeans during the G20 event. The "America First" policy is, somewhat ironically, pushing more countries into China's sphere of influence. Told a client today that Trump needs to tread carefully. "American First" could quickly morph into "America Alone". Decent piece from CNN on this very subject here. https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/13/china/xi-jinping-trump-g20-apec-intl-hnk/index.html

I just learned that all of DC, the entire federal government roster of employees, continues to work hybrid, 3 days work from home, 2 in the office. Craziness.

There’s been a lot of chatter about “China tariffs” of late. America wants there to be balanced trade. Sounds simple enough and it got me thinking, albeit rhetorically so. What is America’s single largest export category? That would be weapons and arms. For 2023 this totaled $238bn. Oddly though, the Bureau of Economic Analysis doesn’t actually include this line item when collating the data. See below.

Here we go…

Here’s my interest. TradFi ended last Friday at around $76.5k. A whole lot of people are now caught offsides and there’s less than 12 hours before pre-market opens. This is the first weekend in years where the algo bots couldn’t keep the King in check. How this plays out - again over less than 12 hours (23:00 UTC)- will be very indicative of price action.

And to think that this, below, was making the rounds on social media two years ago today.