So this just flashed out in the news. Call me skeptical.

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Finally!

Back hashing it all out on Trump v China earlier today on CNBC Asia.

China Morning Missive Here is but one example of why an American policy of containment just won’t work with China. It might have been possible a decade-plus in the past, but not today. Nvida is told to halt all chip shipments to China. This was expected going back to the first trade war in 2018. In fact, Trump’s biggest mistake was to loudly and publicly point out all of China’s weak points. This included access to tech. The Chinese heard, knew what Trump said was correct and with that action was taken. For five years China prepared for what is now playing out. None should be surprised by Huawai announcing new, competitive chip technology nor with CATL with advances in batteries and EV charging stations. Remember DeepSeek? That is just the tip of the proverbial iceberg. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/huawei-readies-new-ai-chip-mass-shipment-china-seeks-nvidia-alternatives-sources-2025-04-21/

This so good to be up for air and able to post Notes here again.

Here is another variable that doesn’t get enough attention. America demands that China address its massive trade surplus. Ok, but what is it that America exports? If you look into the official data, officially the largest exports out of America in 2024 are civilian aircraft parts ($123bn) and oil ($118bn). Not included in the “official data” is the exports of weapon systems. For 2024 that totaled $319bn. Nearly triple the official top two categories. Great article on this provided below. So, China has said it is open to addressing the trade issue, but America policy won’t be selling weapon systems to China. Moreover, basically everything that China does want to be from America is disallowed under “national security”. Can’t buy Nvidia chips, as example.

Al Jazeera

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2001 George W Bush “you are either with us or with the terrorists” 2025 Donald J Trump “we might force countries to choose between the US and China” We’ve all seen the game before and, arguably, America had far greater leverage 25 years ago. Arguably. And it still turned out horribly wrong. Over the past decade and a half, the US has spent blood and treasure on a series of misadventures. China, on the other hand, has deployed trade surpluses to build.

China Morning Missive Nothing at all surprising about this move, even as the chorus continues to call for “fiscal stimulus”. The fact that China’s central bank remains cautious on rates tells you all you need to know. Pragmatism is the name of the game. Don’t expect any material moves to support the local economy until Beijing has a clearer understanding of what, exactly, the Trump administration wants from this trade war. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/china-set-leave-lending-rates-steady-tariffs-raise-easing-bets-2025-04-18/

Trying something new in an attempt to be more production on Nostr

TikTok is the canary in the China trade war coal mine. If the Trump team is unable to secure a deal on the social media platform then the two parties remain at a stalemate. The Chinese know how central TikTok is to a wide swath of Americans. If no deal is to be secured, as part of a much larger trade deal, then the Chinese will just burn it to the ground. Once that path is taken, the Chinese will blame the outcome on Trump. I will also repeat that the Chinese side hasn’t even begun to play hardball with Trump. Once you see headlines about “export controls” on items beyond rare earths then you will know the game has been taken to the next level. https://www.reuters.com/technology/trump-says-china-has-reached-out-tariffs-tiktok-deal-may-wait-2025-04-17/

Not that this #China strategy should come as a surprise. It’s the fact that Bessent and the entire Trump team actually view the strategy as being “doable”. When reviewing which country represents the largest trading partner of other countries China has surpassed the US years ago. The only solution is for the US and China to recognize the world as it is rather than the world they wish it to be. The solution will demand collaboration. That, however, isn’t the American position …… at least not at the moment. https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/u-s-plans-to-use-tariff-negotiations-to-isolate-china-177d1528?st=ynEXsW&reflink=article_copyURL_share

Been keeping busy but I so need to get back here with Notes. So much to share on the #China front. For now though there is this 7pm Tuesday night (today) @preston @James Lavish themes - and more - which you both addressed last week on your podcast.

China has zero American fucks to give. Think the Trump team will be waiting a bit longer for that inevitable “call from Beijing”. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-xi-visit-vietnam-malaysia-cambodia-april-14-18-xinhua-reports-2025-04-11/

What it’s means when you use the phrase “The Definition of Insanity”. And pardon my vulgarity, but it has really devolved into a dick measuring contest at this stage. https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-trump-trade-tariff-war-98676e74?st=pACsqa&reflink=article_copyURL_share

So it appears that I’m waking up to the “Trump blinked”. Between the erratic bond market and #China turning the screws, we now know where the line in the sand is. No going back from here.

I cannot stress enough. No one, average folks, here in #China is talking about tariffs or even stressing. Everyone is just going about their daily routine. It’s just another day.

The US cannot win the trade war with #China. Walmart pulling forward guidance tells you everything you need to know. Price hikes on all things out of China are being passed on to either the American buyer (Walmart) or the American consumer. And I’ll also repeat again. China hasn’t even begun playing hardball. Export controls will be the point when that changes.

Nonstop action. Seems like I haven’t been off a video call with people in the States since “Liberation Day”. China. China. China. Essentially 90% of the hot takes across social media are completely off base. The power players in Beijing won’t flinch and Chinese producers/manufactures are passing the entirety of the tariffs directly onto their American buyers.

As expected. TikTok gets another 75 day extension. You tell me who has the leverage? If you can’t even bring #China to the table over TikTok what do you honestly think you see as possible in the bigger picture. https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/trump-tiktok-sale-deadline-looms-us-looks-deal-2025-04-04/

Meanwhile …… Tick Tock, next block.

Important to keep in mind that China hasn’t even started playing hardball. This is just the obvious response to “Liberation Day” activities. This goal for now in Beijing is to find out what cards Trump is playing with. How far does he intend to go. When that road ends, then China drops the hammer.

CNBC

Trump tariffs fallout: China retaliates, Vietnam talks, U.S. markets melt down

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