So it appears that I’m waking up to the “Trump blinked”. Between the erratic bond market and #China turning the screws, we now know where the line in the sand is. No going back from here.

As expected. TikTok gets another 75 day extension. You tell me who has the leverage? If you can’t even bring #China to the table over TikTok what do you honestly think you see as possible in the bigger picture. https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/trump-tiktok-sale-deadline-looms-us-looks-deal-2025-04-04/

China Morning Missive The greatest benefit from the throngs of Americans jumping on RedNote is how quickly errant tropes of #China have been blown apart. The perfect example is the “social credit score”. I can’t even begin to tell you all how many times I’ve had to explain to clients and others that this simply doesn’t exist. And yet, how many times have you seen headlines and social media commentary on Twitter or elsewhere making the claim that a Chinese social credit score runs the lives of all everyday Chinese. Between RedNote and DeepSeek, there’s been a genuine awareness that most of what the American media covers in regards of China is just articulated fabrications.

Might the public tides be turning? Surprised to find that CNBC posted my #China interview clip on YouTube. Doesn’t always happen. Came in this morning and noticed there were a fair number of comments.  This is just a small sample. Message might be getting through and off just a 90 sec clip.

Need to reiterate the following to any/all who are new to Nostr. Engagement with the community is critical. A “lurker’s” mentality will result in a very sub-par experience. Say whatever you want. Post notes on whatever is your subject matter expertise. Be weird, whatever that might mean. Just engage on a regular basis. This is a message I have to keep reminding myself too.

China Evening Missive There is weakness throughout the Chinese economy. This is the outcome when a nation-state makes the cognizant choice to aggressively deleverage system wide. You’ll see headlines discussing deflation and imploding rates. This is nothing more than a system returning to its natural state. When Xi Jinping stated that people would need to “eat bitterness” he wasn’t making the statement callously. It was a necessary message and a reflection of a politician being honest with the citizens. Pain will remain so long as China continues down the deleveraging path. There is no certainty of success mind you, but if Xi and his team are able to thread the needle then China will have the economic foundation to rise to the next level. Again, success is by no means a certainty.

I realize this is from the Atlantic, and there's a very clear agenda, but these sorts of headlines and articles are very unhelpful when providing commentary on #China. The continued determination to find errors in how the Chinese government is enacting policy, both domestic and in foreign affairs, undermines the real issue at hand. The Chinese leadership fully understands what plagues the G7 "rules based order" and is working overtime to (1) protect itself from the inevitable fallout and (2) doing its part to hasten further instability. America, and its allies, need to understand this rather than making claims that China has sown the seeds of its own destruction. This is objectively false.

The Atlantic

Xi May Lose His Gamble

North Korean troops are in Russia. Is that really what’s best for Beijing?

As markets go, #China is a genuine anomaly. It is the world’s second largest economy. It also exhibits the very same risks of any emerging market. There’s nothing else like it and there has been, and will continue to be, excess volatility.

Shanghai checking out for the weekend. #Peace

After getting my coffee ready, I start every day here in Shanghai reviewing all relevant overnight news centered on the topic of #China. It is all one giant hot mess these days. It's as though a nasty story line is being spun. Rising tensions in the Taiwan Straight and the South China Sea. Property collapsing and (today) headlines indicating increased protests throughout the country. It goes on and on. I can attest that all isn't well in the Middle Kingdom. Then again, there doesn't seem to be a single country in the world were conditions can be described as "well". But like the old adage, the truth lies somewhere in the middle. I've raised my concern here on Nostr in the past of how America has changed the game in how it engages with China. I remain committed that the reasoning for changing the game is nefarious in nature. A path to war, I'm afraid, is in the process of being paved.

Back in the States to sell the family home. So many memories. You want to keep everything. Gut punch! Still, can hear Mom and Dad saying “it’s time for another family to build their own memories.”