There are still those times when I can return to what it was like when I first arrived in Shanghai.

For those affected by the ongoing supply shock in memory chips (DRAM), expect one Chinese company - CXMT - to arrive and begin to drive down prices (and devour market share). A fantastic article here providing some detailed background as the company is set to IPO here in Shanghai. Then will come another group - YMTC - with a core focus on SSDs. If you ask me, Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are about to face a major threat to their chips business lines.

Gasgoo Auto News

CXMT Unveils the Aggressive Expansion of Domestic Memory Chips

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China Morning Missive Need to get back to doing these more regularly. Just far too much on the docket of late. Need to prioritize more China commentary moving forward. For today, I wanted to share a few comments on reports that the UAE is driving hard with the construction of the West-East pipeline which will fully circumvent the Hormuz chock point. The UAE leadership has been touting the project and in the past day stated that construction is now 50% completed and will go into full production beginning in 2027. What isn’t raised in the media coverage or even from the UAE comments is that the Chinese are the primary contractor for the project as (tangentially) part of the Belt and Road initiative. In contrast, there were also reports in the past several days of the British government revising its plans for the High Speed Phase 2 rail line meant to traverse the entirety of England. First introduced in 2009, the project was meant to be completed by 2026 at a cost of 36 billion pounds. Now, the project is expected to cost over 100 billion pounds and won’t be operational until 2040. All developed nations, with perhaps the exception of Japan, no longer have the capabilities to build infrastructure. This will prove to be a critical issue especially for those countries that are calling for a new re-industrial age.

CNBC

UAE says new pipeline that will bypass Strait of Hormuz is nearly 50% complete

The UAE has redirected some oil exports through an existing pipeline to Fujairah, which has a maximum capacity of 1.8 million barrels per day.

Good morning from Shanghai. Always makes me laugh a bit when seeing a car such as this randomly while out for a morning stroll.

It was bound to happen. After being ignored for the better part of a decade, the business media has finally “discovered” China’s alternative to SWIFT. Not a replacement. An alternative and one that operates completely outside the prying eyes of the New York correspondent bank network. Highly recommend reading this article which, I should add, is actually from the Financial Times. https://www.dimsumdaily.hk/renminbi-use-surges-as-iran-war-boosts-cips-yuan-nears-three%E2%80%91year-high/

Putin arrives into Beijing later today. Expect there to be a great deal of commentary of the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline. The project has been under negotiation for years. Expect those negotiations to be concluded this time around. It is a massive project.

Small little joy of life. A banger of a yakitori place just across from our apartment.

Ok. Here is a modern phenomenon that I just don’t understand. Why the overwhelming and desperate need for validation from faceless strangers on the Internet? It is a cliche I know, but peace can only be achieved from within.

At roughly the very moment Trump was wheels up in Beijing heading home, the news broke that Vladimir Putin is heading to Beijing next week. For the Chinese there is no such thing as an impromptu meeting such as this. It would have been planned in advanced. The Chinese have no alliances or allegiances. Everything is a bilateral relationship and all actions are driven by divide and conquer.

South China Morning Post

Exclusive | Russia’s Putin is heading to China next week, days after Xi-Trump summit

The Russian leader’s one-day visit, tipped for May 20, is unlikely to feature the pomp and elaborate details of the US president’s trip.

Can you even imagine if the American bond market blew up while Trump was in China. Oh the irony.

A word of unsolicited advice on this week’s events in China. In advance of this week’s meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, my strong suggestion is that you ignore all commentary that will invariably be flooding traditional and social media. It is a fluid situation and no one, including myself, has a clue what to expect. The only point that I would share is how the last minute meeting in Seoul between Sec Bessent and He Lifeng plays into the expectations for the Xi-Trump summit. To the point, if such a meeting is being held this close to the Beijing summit, then means many of the key issues haven’t yet been finalized. Even if the parties can come to some sort of tacit agreement in Seoul, whatever is agreed to would still need to be vetted by Xi and his team. There simply isn’t enough time for whatever issues are being hammered out to be agreed to by the principals. Moreover, based upon the disclosed itinerary it does appear to be nothing more than a series of performative photo-ops.

So much noise out there with ongoing events so allow me to provide a genuine piece of signal. The China-Iran railway is still fully operational and the mere fact that this piece of infrastructure has been untouched tells me everything I need to know in terms of where escalatory dominance resides; Beijing. Trump and Bessent are truly heading headlong into a buzz saw next week. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-08/iran-turns-to-china-rail-link-to-try-to-bypass-us-blockade

I’d say this was perfectly timed. No we need to see how it performs and what the feedback is from the community. At first glance it would seem that this new model is undercutting the Americans on pricing. Perhaps aggressively so.

CNBC

China's DeepSeek releases preview of long-awaited V4 model as AI race intensifies

Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has released a preview version of its long awaited V4 large language model.

Again I state emphatically; American software is useless without Chinese hardware. The entire rare earths issue was nothing but the tip of a Titanic-sized iceberg. “The company makes printed circuit boards, which form the intricate electronic backbone of AI servers.” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-04-20/nvidia-supplier-victory-giant-set-for-debut-after-biggest-hk-listing-this-year

Downtown Shanghai and it guts me every time these entire city blocks of old 石库门, traditional lane houses from the late 19th century, are taken down.

More evidence of MacKinder’s revenge. And this is the world’s second largest gas field. Long before there was Belt and Road there were the numerous Central Asian energy projects. Make no mistake, the Eurasian land mass is in play, has been for 30 years, and it’s already been sown up by China and Russia.

Turkmenportal

Turkmenistan intends to increase natural gas supplies to China

Turkmen natural gas supplies to the Chinese market have already exceeded 462 billion cubic meters, and these volumes are set to increase. This was ...

I have an unhealthy obsession over why it is so many people feel compelled to do podcasts with as many books as possible as their background. A subconscious “appeal to authority” vibe if there ever was one.

This has been perhaps one of the more noticeable trend shifts I’ve seen here in Shanghai over that past few years. Used to be a clamoring of students descending on China year in and year out. That appears to be over. And yet, there are a multitude more people today weighing in on all things China. Quite the dichotomy.

I’d like for you to watch this short clip and then consider just how widely this one example can be applied across all industries. In addition, what China has done to low value add intermediate goods over the past 30 years is now being replicated with precious parts and value add machinery. The Germans in particular are seeing their production base being eviscerated in real time. Check out this video, "exposing rolex made in china short" https://share.google/RjSNSlNcrINE2odg0

China Morning Missive Making sure that @Lyn Alden sees this. A significant shift and on that’s been a decade in the making. In 2012, the Obama administration - for the very first time - weaponizes SWIFT and unironically does so against Iran. In 2012, Beijing sees this move as an existential threat and tasks the PBoC to build an alternative. Three years late CIPS goes live. For over a decade, there is scant adoption among global banks. That was never the primary objective. The critical aim was building a system that would provide Chinese banks a messaging and settlement network for trade denominated in Renminbi. And not just an alternative system to SWIFT, but a system that operated completely outside the New York correspondent banking network. Zero visibility to transactions and zero asymmetric advantage for Treasury And yet people are out there today scrambling to come up with ideas as to how the Hormuz toll is being paid. If you want evidence, see below.

South China Morning Post

Conflict catalyst: China’s yuan settlements hit record amid Middle East tensions

Single-day transactions via China’s Cross-border Interbank Payment System surge past 1 trillion yuan as Beijing’s moves to expand the yuan-paym...