The very recent weakness in Bitcoin is a side-effect of the breakout in precious metals. Remember that in Bitcoin, God-Candles are basically just baseball cap branding. OG’s in Bitcoin have largely already dumped after 10 to 14 years of hodling. But in precious metals circles people have waited their whole lives for a 10x “melt-up”. Which is about where Gold and Silver are at right now. Think 30 years or more. So expect Old Guys with dreams of Cabo to absolutely eclipse what we think has been OG Bitcoiner selling after 10 years of hodling. “Retail” in Gold/Silver has been hodling longer than most Bitcoiners have been alive. And they are going to find that selling is very, very difficult at the prices we’re approaching. The spot markets at trading co’s has got to be interesting now, with buying v selling reaching a disconnect. Watching Gold & Silver run is like watching Susan Lucci finally win an Emmy award. t’s well-deserved, and everyone over 50 is applauding. But it’s little more than an honorarium at this point.

Starting to see a bit of talk about how Bitcoin is no longer a “Retail” asset because the Robinhood Retail crowd has become the Blackrock ETF Retail crowd. So fwiw, I’ll repeat: “UNLESS AND UNTIL….Overnight and Overweekend markets kick fully into gear and break the Western-centric hold on Bitcoin… Until we see THAT, Bitcoin is NASDAQ. Don’t leverage or expect anything more than 10%. Mark these words: Until the Non-Western “Flyover” markets clearly wrest control from Western “Wall St” markets, Bitcoin is going to trade like a trad-fi “FAANG” style investment. So accumulate accordingly.” View quoted note →

Today’s minor debacle is across all financial markets, but let’s focus on Bitcoin vs shitcoins since they are 24-7 trades and organized-market moves like today’s always happen on Fiat Fridays. This has nothing to do with Bitcoin directly, only peripherally. What happened today was almost certainly a break in the Yen Carry Trade, which has been threatening/happening for a couple of years now and likely finally being realized (similar to how everyone knows the US Dollar is a broadly accepted Fiat ponzi, but why does it take so long for everything to go full market-down in that arena as the buyers evaporate?). The Yen carry trade is a decades long scheme of borrowing in Yen for almost no interest and buying any and whatever to profit. It is now unwinding and “any and whatever” has to be sold to repay the borrowing. If this is so it is almost certainly a global financial flash-in-the-pan. Which has nothing to do with Bitcoin, but which has everything to do with shitcoins and every other speculative investment about to melting to a few cents above zero. It also may trigger fiat bankruptcies, and we should genuinely hope it will. But it is only a buying opportunity for Bitcoin.

All the propagandized “division” - in America and elsewhere - all division in the world, boils down to: “My sources of information are better than your sources of information.” This has always been. And the first step in confronting this monstrous maelstrom of insanity… …is to recognize both sources of information are Fiat.

Shower thought today: The last legit conspiracy theory I can think of that has definitively been Debunked is that Playboy was primarily about the articles & interviews.

We all understand that Bitcoin is now an Institutional asset…right? That Pleb culture birthed in Bitcoin is completely and totally irrelevant anymore. That Podcasts we loved for years, twitterX’s we followed…none of that is anything more than a fun way to spend a weeknight? I’m sincerely encouraging you to let all that go. Because Bitcoin isn’t even remotely influenced by Pleb buying anymore. Your influencers are not helpful. And I can’t suggest anywhere to go for any signal of any kind about Bitcoin. Because Fiat influencers are the Dumb Money. No person, whatsoever, has any clue where Bitcoin is going. None. We’re adrift. We’re over the event horizon. No one, even multi-100 BTC OG’s, have a clue what’s happening right now. The only Smart Money - is Dollar Cost Averaging. Bitcoin is truly in Unknown “Here There Be Dragons” territory. You are not the idiot. You are the hope-filled sailor. And DCA is the way.

You know what’s NOT fun? Being an investment professional who understands that Bitcoin is the most important asset the Human Race has ever discovered. During 2025.

The headwinds against Bitcoin this year are unprecedented. Regardless your bullishness - and there is zero reason at this point NOT to be bullish - the price-suppression is very real. Retail is no longer part of the market. European/Asian markets are awol. Reports of large institutional buying seem little more than reports as upward prices meet overwhelming selling at every stair-step. Yet. Yet. The healthiest markets climb a slow stairway to Heaven, as every break to a new high is slowly digested by the lettuce-hands and the window-shoppers in the market. This is a classic transition period for an accepted, mid-tier asset. Volatility lessens remarkably as the psychology of the market participants shifts. Bitcoin has entered the world of Fiat, and Fiat reigns in the world of Fiat. Bitcoin will be ruled by Fiat for some time to come. The early OGs dumped at $100k, and are largely done. But YOU, my friend, won’t see your dumping-point for another several years. So buckle-up and learn to enjoy the ride. The people today who are trying to sell us on God Candles are wonderful people, but they’re naive, at best. There are never, and never were, God Candles in maturing Fiat assets. Only speculative pump-n-dumps. And again, Bitcoin now lives in the world of Fiat.

For the record: The whole point of Wealth - THE WHOLE POINT - is to progressively separate yourself from all the other human beings who make you uncomfortable. Even Bitcoin OG’s will do the same. It’s the whole scorpion on the frog parable. Bill Gate’s was “new money” once. Stay humble is not just a brand(TM).

Vietnam has a population of just a hair over 100million people. Headlines of late claim 86million accounts may be frozen/confiscated because the populace is refusing the final steps toward overly invasive KYC leading to Social Credit/CBDC implementation. There are certainly overlapping business/personal identities in the 86million number, but if true it represents vastly more than half the population of adults. I don’t understand what cultural issues might bear on this story, and I’ve learned that trying to do 10-minute research to present an “expert” opinion on social media is not the way I want to live my life right now. But no matter how I size this up…if the story is even remotely valid on face, how could Vietnam exist as a country a year from now? So this is overwhelmingly likely a social experiment, pushed on the Government of Vietnam from outside, that will be walked-back, used as a banking wargame if not precedent, and will be forgotten until it reappears next year in a new form. But I can’t help wanting to see how things play out if none of the sociopaths involved in this blinks.

I’ve been exploring Ai video creation for a few weeks now, trying to probe its limits both bad and good, creatively speaking, to see where we’re at in the revolution. And while it’s early yet for me, what is glaringly obvious - across all legit platforms - is that the possibilities are seemingly incredible. Until you place a Vagina into the scene. Then AI loses its LLM-mind and goes full-on Monty Python. So. Meet the new Boss. Same as the old Boss.

Can anyone recommend the best AI Video generator? I’m looking to experiment creatively, esp Realistic video quality. I don’t want any AI censoring or second-guessing my prompts if they’re “sensitive”, not cuz I’m a perv, but because I want to fully experiment without being coerced back into a framework. Also, I’d appreciate an AI-congregator like Pollo.ai, which I’ve been playing with. Just wondering if there is something better to offer? Appreciate all responses, just starting a conversation to find my touchstone into AI video creativity. (Zaps will follow. And here’s a pic to get you to stop and read this.)

I admit I’m too scared to post this on TwitX, but: I have no idea who Charlie Kirk is/was. And haven’t spent any time learning since, sorry not sorry. But I can foresee that his death is not going to trigger anything in America but more social media dissipation/venting of pressure. Which is a good thing. America needs these events to stew and digest a healthy movement forward. To temper our steel for the next Turning. imo, your mileage may vary, not financial advice, don’t take if you’re allergic….

You begin by graphing price movements, and volume of course. What else is there? Only changes in those two things, that occur over time. Right? So you pretend there’s more. You create charts, graphs. And it make sense, you’ve dedicated your life to following. Never winning.

A non-profit is something rich people establish so their unemployable children will have a job. There are no non-profits for broken bones. Or cavities. Or anything else that doesn’t have a very emotional pull for middle-class Americans. But you can bet that someone, somewhere has filed a 401(c)3 for depressed kittens.

Bitcoin price/trading charts get “closed” on a daily basis at 8pm Eastern Standard Time. Why? Chartist/Astrologers religiously mark these “closes” to base their theories. Yet there is no close. There is no spoon. How did this decision come about? It doesn’t align with any Fiat market-closes. So what arbitrary arbitrator chose the Daily Close for Bitcoin? Did I miss an email? Yet it was chosen. Remember, pleb, when Bitcoin traded all hours, could breakout on holidays, weekends, anytime? Now it’s all about Mon-Fri (& late Sunday night to suck the non-Western “flyover” markets in for fleecing). I’m not judging, this is the world Bitcoin now lives in. I’m just taking a moment to declare that it is not real. And I’m not sure how we got told that it was.

Unpopular opinion: Bitcoin has already knighted it’s Kingdom. The rest of us are scrambling for fealty. And that is what’s being reflected in price action for years now. Your heros haven’t cared about sub-10 Bitcoin in years. The only care about navigating Fiat banking.

This Bitcoin “bull market” has seen undeniably dwindling volume across all exchanges. That either means Bitcoin is making new highs via moderate purchases against smaller liquidity… …or Bitcoin is being purchase outside of all established Exchanges. To understand how the Cycles have broken is to understand this Volume / Price disconnect. It’s not US/Coinbase centric, Coinbase isn’t even near the volume of ex-US exchanges. As a Bitcoiner, I have to concede that massive amounts of Bitcoin are being purchased not just “OTC”, but fully off-exchange. In private transactions. El Salvador stuff. Which is beautiful and perfect. But fucks up all the fiat models. Yippee-kayeee!

When I became enamored with Bitcoin many years ago, I always clung to a belief I was told again and again: Quantum computing was years off, and Devs were already aware of and prepared for it. I’m now convinced neither of these things is true, especially my belief in the integrity of Bitcoin’s development community.

To Know, is to know All. To know All, one need know very little. But to know that very little, one must first know a great deal. Hans Christian Andersen’s brief story “The Princess and the Pea” tells us everything we need to know to be a successful Investor. No joke. Because it’s about being sensitive enough to spot the Lie, though it be buried beneath a mountain of comfy mattresses designed to make you sleep easy. Worth a ponder or two.

The princess and the pea (ENGLISH) - La princesse au petit pois (FRENCH)

Andersen ENGLISH: The princess and the pea. Once upon a time there was a prince who wanted to marry a princess, but she woul have to be a real prin...