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Did’ja feel it? Gold is telling us Fiat is about to break, and Bitcoin is telling us Fiat (via speculation) is breaking. Greatest disconnect of our lifetime, imo. The conundrum is that almost no one is on the sidelines anymore. The play of Fiat v Bitcoin is already in motion, and unfortunately theres a LOT more players on the Fiat team. So hodl tight. It’s going to be exciting for awhile. I’ve long been on record for saying the Cycles were broken. I don’t think they’re broken anymore. I think they’re experiencing an Interval. And Intervals are fundamental to significant change. nostr:note1kqp740mlqutzsp8fh9g22ay4djfcm8s47jgf4m48kysnmtpjs9tsu4vk4c

Worthless Money is an Ocean we all swim, breathe and live in. We all swim, breathe and live in. Bitcoin is still a bubble. A life-saving, yet tiny bubble.

Here’s what we know “first principles”-wise on Bitcoin price action: 1) Everyone - EVERYONE - who understands Bitcoin has gone full into Bitcoin. So DCA is a minor - but an ongoing and fundamentally important - factor. This is something “Investmentland” doesn’t understand. 2) The new money coming from “Investmentland”, which ramped the fiat price up above $100k the last couple years, is now looking elsewhere because fiat does fiat. But they don’t have anywhere else to look, and they realize that. Hence gold/silver. 3) The Bitcoin network is unstoppable, so it will continue to grow. Development on the network will continue to grow. Bitcoin is the Bull in every china shop. 4) “OG Selling” has likely been a minor influence over the past few months, and will continue to wain as major OG’s were never KYC and selling triggers serious attention from gov’t entities. I personally don’t think this is much of a thing beyond those bartering Bitcoin for real estate et al assets in El Salvador. Selling pressure is coming from elsewhere, which brings us to… 5) “Paper Bitcoin” is something no one can measure. Yet if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck…it will eventually explode like a duck. Paper Bitcoin is undoubtedly rampant. Rampant. Remember when literally No One knew FTX existed? That’s where we are now. And there’s only one preparation for that: Self-Custody. Something will likely implode soon. It feels that way to me, and if it feels that way to you as well, then anything on exchange or in lending services is collateral damage. 6) Bitcoin is abiding. 7) We need to always be aligning our journey with Bitcoin.

I’ve long wondered about the blinders early Bitcoiners, investors in Bitcoin start-ups, and Bitcoin devs seemed to have about exactly Who is responsible for the essential code changes. I’ve speculated over the last year or more that this is the most likely attack vector. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYZ4MNqLeFg

Here’s the skinny: Wall St(tm)/ETF’s brought Bitcoin to $100k. But they are Fiat, so by definition they are now the dumbest people in the room. Bitcoin is in the hands of retards. For awhile. Until Nation States, Sovereign funds, Pension funds enter the space. These are people who don’t play games, just need predictable returns to run their business. Yes, they’re advised by Wall St(tm). But for decades they’ve been buying Wall Street’s cast-off sloppy seconds. For their manager’s idyllic trips to wherever. That’s a long road to travail, probably more than a “4 year cycle”. The trust in shitcoiners like Goldman Sachs is going to break. Not soon, but it will happen because it’s unavoidable. The headwinds to Bitcoin right now come from Bitcoiners living off Bitcoin, and the inarguable paper Bitcoin in play. Both of those WILL be transitory. The wresting of Bitcoin from the hands of Wall St(tm) to Sovereign investment will be impressive. When it comes.

The “First Follower” video of shirtless dancing guy is iconic, and if you don’t know you need to know…so go now. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fW8amMCVAJQ ——————————————————————————— The place Bitcoin is right now, imo, is the Third Followers phase. Everyone reading this was likely a Second Follower. Wall St became the Third Follower, but is still only dancing on the periphery waiting to see if a scene is actually happening. Next comes Nation States, Sovereign funds, etc.

PSA: If you’ve never seen the movie “Network”, I’m hoping you’ll do yourself a favor and experience what many have called the greatest screenplay ever filmed. Trust me. You have no idea what this 50 year old movie continues to reveal about our culture.

Technical Analysis as we know it developed in a Fiat system. Therefore - and by definition - it breaks under a sound-money, deflationary money transition. The basic concepts, ideas and measurements still hold, but they have to be recalculated from the ground up to provide meaningful action. For instance, the Bitcoin bull-market of Jan 2024 to Dec 2025 was a classic bull market. But the Bear Market Bitcoin entered in May of 2025 has still yet to be recognized as a classic Bear Market - in a sound-money system. tl;dr - Bear Markets now go sideways w/ reduced volatility until conditions usher in a new Bull run.

Mark my words, Bitcoin is going to be really popular again at $95,000. So gird thy loins.

A few months ago I used Bitcoin to fund 3 loans to buy a home that had a quick closing. It took maybe an hour, over time. (I went with Debifi). My credit score obv never came into play, only my pristine collateral. The mortgage finally came through 2 1/2 months later, which I used to buy back Bitcoin at a worse price. Because Banking hasn’t been able to fucking streamline mortgages in over 100 years. Bitcoin IS BUILDING an industry that makes modern banking a laughable joke. nostr:note1zjqsyzu2v20anuyfznxxltzwq793epmrtthhzxkyzeul0prs2nrqk0c5js

Here’s a 1 Year chart of WTI Crude priced in Bitcoin. (Longer-term charts are ridiculously over-weighted, but arguably don’t reflect the entry of Investment Houses and Corporations into Bitcoin, so let’s focus on just the past year). This is LITERALLY the only chart that matters: The world’s most important material resource priced in the world’s most important monetary resource. EVERYTHING else is noise. THIS is signal. Countries not stacking Bitcoin are not going to make it.

I’m coining a new term: Bitcoin Boomers. Because the OG Bitcoin Boomers are dumping their easy-earned gains on the head’s of subsequent generations and forcing them to swim upstream just to stay afloat.

nostr:npub18ekka6n399pskjzjusvduscem5c99dewg2swe3u68vdce92cmxgszeht3g I’ll always be a fanboi for how for a while you would fearlessly alpha Michael Saylor in tweets in his early days. It was glorious. Nobody but Nobody could get away with how you trolled a major CEO. Yet in Bitcoin world, you helped introduce him to the playground, and let him know the rules…and he got that. In that way, I believe you played a very pivotal role to reveal Saylor as a true Bitcoiner. Appreciated you. nostr:note1lpr0hkzu05evm0ea55jdhzf74ky9g7n49s0a48yvfsx2nax4ld0qdvh7h5

I think its important to remind ourselves that for virtually everyone in the Fiat system it makes complete sense that you obey the orders of someone that you work for, and at the end of a “pay-period” you get credits to give to other people who obey the orders of someone THEY work for. Yes, Bitcoin is Freedom Technology…but it won’t be adopted quickly, because few are able to understand. It will take decades to break the collective unconsciousness. Prepare accordingly.

Well said! Nostr is perhaps happily doomed to be the place where people can just be. Fwiw the very wealthy realized centuries ago that “Gentlemen’s Clubs” would rule “Social Media” nine ways to Sunday. Be Small but Mighty and choose your friends wisely. nostr:note1gfvp27ccy6a0q8uv9j08aw4x3lc68y350mauj72wq6ff9erwzwqs93c0vw

A foot is your foot. An inch is your thumb. Every real housewife knows a cup, pint, quart, teaspoon, tablespoon…and they built the greatest country the world has ever known. Not with Math, but with Measurements.

Look at this 2-year Weekly chart of Volume (bottom) v Price Action. Forget what Asset this is. This is an Asset that is Dislocating. Dislocating assets break. Always. With unanticipated results. But we don’t know WHAT will break. The stresses within have ripple-effects without. And those stresses are intertwined through SO many things when viewing the free-est global-market asset the human race has ever known, however small but scrappy. Yes, Bitcoin is tiny, so far as harbingers go. But Gold is not, and Gold is likely the tsunami that has been sucking out the water from the beach right now, if you view the Volume chart as the place where the earth meets the ocean of money. Bitcoin’s time is to shine is not yet. Likely another one to two years. So DCA accordingly and don’t swing for fences.

The very recent weakness in Bitcoin is a side-effect of the breakout in precious metals. Remember that in Bitcoin, God-Candles are basically just baseball cap branding. OG’s in Bitcoin have largely already dumped after 10 to 14 years of hodling. But in precious metals circles people have waited their whole lives for a 10x “melt-up”. Which is about where Gold and Silver are at right now. Think 30 years or more. So expect Old Guys with dreams of Cabo to absolutely eclipse what we think has been OG Bitcoiner selling after 10 years of hodling. “Retail” in Gold/Silver has been hodling longer than most Bitcoiners have been alive. And they are going to find that selling is very, very difficult at the prices we’re approaching. The spot markets at trading co’s has got to be interesting now, with buying v selling reaching a disconnect. Watching Gold & Silver run is like watching Susan Lucci finally win an Emmy award. t’s well-deserved, and everyone over 50 is applauding. But it’s little more than an honorarium at this point.

Starting to see a bit of talk about how Bitcoin is no longer a “Retail” asset because the Robinhood Retail crowd has become the Blackrock ETF Retail crowd. So fwiw, I’ll repeat: “UNLESS AND UNTIL….Overnight and Overweekend markets kick fully into gear and break the Western-centric hold on Bitcoin… Until we see THAT, Bitcoin is NASDAQ. Don’t leverage or expect anything more than 10%. Mark these words: Until the Non-Western “Flyover” markets clearly wrest control from Western “Wall St” markets, Bitcoin is going to trade like a trad-fi “FAANG” style investment. So accumulate accordingly.” nostr:note196jxv0c69ps8zltzelzqfjf860xrvwgm2ak6d6099qha5vmarkxsuy3l75

All the propagandized “division” - in America and elsewhere - all division in the world, boils down to: “My sources of information are better than your sources of information.” This has always been. And the first step in confronting this monstrous maelstrom of insanity… …is to recognize both sources of information are Fiat.