Volume (bottom bar) is the sign things are changing. (Weekly chart) This whole last year has been just fiat and Retail.

Bitcoin Cycles are done. Broken. Not to be spoken of again. And that’s fundamental, because it means we cannot continue to speak of Bitcoin as a Deflationary asset. A tiny handful of wonks may continue to circlejerk something new about “longer” Cycles…but. A deflationary asset must chart deflation. And Fiat broke our 4 year chart.

Sometimes I see something done remarkably well by someone I will never know. And I appreciate that I am human. there is no image here, you need to conjure your own.

The ridiculous elephant in the room problem for anyone who thinks $USD Stablecoins are any kind of future, is simply that you can never have any One. And one $USD Stablecoin. You will always be swimming upstream of a million shitcoin stablecoins, airdrops, nft’s et al et al et alllll…. I mean, USDC broke its peg back in the 2021 bear market…and went begging for funding to get back to stable. Investors back then were complete Idiots, so they supported it, but since the aftermath of that bear market they won’t the next time. There can be only ONE stablecoin. And it must be USD. So choose your winner very carefully, because the rest go to zero, as the US Dollar will eventually. In time.

Not to be the white cat, but it’s truly such a different ride when you’ve ridden it before, right? View quoted note →

Here’s my 2 sats: Sat 1) Bitcoin is the ultimate canary, so watch what is coming soon for the rest of the world. Sat 2) Institutional Investors control Bitcoin momentum now, and unlike plebs/Retail they don’t catch falling knives. On both counts, gird your loins. We are in uncharted waters, and here there be monsters. Also: The Selling is overdone here. We’re going to bounce $20k before we test the Bear once again. Financial advice. You should literally act on it.

Volume is key to calling a Bull or Bear market turn. We’ve got neither yet. So we’re likely about to rebound up. But your mileage may vary.

Everyone should have two or three Icebreaker jokes for any occasion. Which are essentially kid’s jokes. But always avoid puns (excepting the jk rolling joke below). And 97% of kid’s jokes are just puns, the lowest form of humour. It’s a valuable social skill in new and uncomfortable situations.

Icebreaker jokes for any occasion: (I love this one because it was a racist joke from Hustler magazine that I always remembered but could never tell, then I decided to to redeem it.) A Second-Grader walks into the Library, she has a parrot on her head. The Librarian says “Where did you get that?” The Parrot says “Bwwaakk…outside on the playground. There’s lots of them.”

Icebreaker jokes for any occasion: My grandma went to the bank today to check her balance. The teller pushed her over.

Icebreaker jokes for any occasion: How does Harry Potter go downhill? Walking. jk rolling.

Volume is the prime indicator. And it’s meh. So either this sell-off is fake Bitcoin, or it’s only just begun to plummet. This smells, to me, like a winnowing of the chaff. A shot over the bow for Fiat “Wall St” finance. We’ll see when they begin to bring out the body bags.

There are 3 Questions now. 1) Does the World not want Bitcoin that much? 2) Is Bitcoin forecasting something bad about to happen? 3) Are money managers such a circle-jerk of fiat retardation that they can’t separate good assets from bad? Your guess is as good as mining right now.

Did’ja feel it? Gold is telling us Fiat is about to break, and Bitcoin is telling us Fiat (via speculation) is breaking. Greatest disconnect of our lifetime, imo. The conundrum is that almost no one is on the sidelines anymore. The play of Fiat v Bitcoin is already in motion, and unfortunately theres a LOT more players on the Fiat team. So hodl tight. It’s going to be exciting for awhile. I’ve long been on record for saying the Cycles were broken. I don’t think they’re broken anymore. I think they’re experiencing an Interval. And Intervals are fundamental to significant change. View quoted note →

Worthless Money is an Ocean we all swim, breathe and live in. We all swim, breathe and live in. Bitcoin is still a bubble. A life-saving, yet tiny bubble.

Here’s what we know “first principles”-wise on Bitcoin price action: 1) Everyone - EVERYONE - who understands Bitcoin has gone full into Bitcoin. So DCA is a minor - but an ongoing and fundamentally important - factor. This is something “Investmentland” doesn’t understand. 2) The new money coming from “Investmentland”, which ramped the fiat price up above $100k the last couple years, is now looking elsewhere because fiat does fiat. But they don’t have anywhere else to look, and they realize that. Hence gold/silver. 3) The Bitcoin network is unstoppable, so it will continue to grow. Development on the network will continue to grow. Bitcoin is the Bull in every china shop. 4) “OG Selling” has likely been a minor influence over the past few months, and will continue to wain as major OG’s were never KYC and selling triggers serious attention from gov’t entities. I personally don’t think this is much of a thing beyond those bartering Bitcoin for real estate et al assets in El Salvador. Selling pressure is coming from elsewhere, which brings us to… 5) “Paper Bitcoin” is something no one can measure. Yet if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, quacks like a duck…it will eventually explode like a duck. Paper Bitcoin is undoubtedly rampant. Rampant. Remember when literally No One knew FTX existed? That’s where we are now. And there’s only one preparation for that: Self-Custody. Something will likely implode soon. It feels that way to me, and if it feels that way to you as well, then anything on exchange or in lending services is collateral damage. 6) Bitcoin is abiding. 7) We need to always be aligning our journey with Bitcoin.

I’ve long wondered about the blinders early Bitcoiners, investors in Bitcoin start-ups, and Bitcoin devs seemed to have about exactly Who is responsible for the essential code changes. I’ve speculated over the last year or more that this is the most likely attack vector.

Here’s the skinny: Wall St(tm)/ETF’s brought Bitcoin to $100k. But they are Fiat, so by definition they are now the dumbest people in the room. Bitcoin is in the hands of retards. For awhile. Until Nation States, Sovereign funds, Pension funds enter the space. These are people who don’t play games, just need predictable returns to run their business. Yes, they’re advised by Wall St(tm). But for decades they’ve been buying Wall Street’s cast-off sloppy seconds. For their manager’s idyllic trips to wherever. That’s a long road to travail, probably more than a “4 year cycle”. The trust in shitcoiners like Goldman Sachs is going to break. Not soon, but it will happen because it’s unavoidable. The headwinds to Bitcoin right now come from Bitcoiners living off Bitcoin, and the inarguable paper Bitcoin in play. Both of those WILL be transitory. The wresting of Bitcoin from the hands of Wall St(tm) to Sovereign investment will be impressive. When it comes.