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Control-Plane Capital
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Software engineer turned investor.
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buckyfonds 1 month ago
I wonder how many Bitcoiners have a good understanding of who holds the actual power and who sets the rules. And this is a topic I'll have to write about but I already alluded to it in ( ). And namely, governance activations show who sets the rules. Past upgrade processes (e.g., BIP9, BIP8, "Speedy Trial") revealed that miners and coordinated developers can accelerate or block changes faster than ordinary users can veto. So power concentrates among aligned institutional actors. Net effect: - Technical ideals matter less than coordination leverage. - Future upgrades will likely follow similar political dynamics. 1) What actually happens in upgrades: - Rule changes need coordination. To activate, you need miners to mine the new rules, big pools to signal, exchanges/custodians to accept deposits, wallet/infrastructure teams to ship updates, and users to run them. - BIP9/BIP8/“Speedy Trial” are coordination levers. They set thresholds and timers that, in practice, let miners + core devs + major infra decide when something flips on — or stalls. 2) Who really has leverage - Miners/pools: Control signaling and block production. If they don't play ball, activation drags. If they coordinate, it can move very fast. - Core maintainers & lead devs: Control what's merged, what binaries ship, and which activation method/warnings land in the "standard" client most people run. - Exchanges/custodians/Payment-Service-Providers: Control where coins flow. If they choose a side, liquidity follows them. That decides practical reality more than forum votes. - Ordinary users: Matter in aggregate, but only if they can withhold liquidity or hash in a coordinated way — which is rare. 3) Why this concentrates power - Coordinating thousands of small users is hard; coordinating a few dozen institutions is easy. - Activation schemes with time windows and thresholds reward actors who can move in lockstep (pools, large infra, top client maintainers). - "User veto" exists in theory (run your own rules), but without miners and exchanges you're on a minority chain with no liquidity. 4) What this means in practice - Technical purity loses to coordination. The "best" design doesn't win; the most coordinated coalition does. - Messaging is part of the game. Activation method choices ("Speedy Trial", LOT=true/false, flag days) are politics encoded in software defaults. - Future upgrades repeat the pattern. Expect negotiations between dev leads, pools, and big venues; users mostly ratify by upgrading after the fact. 5) Bitcoin's upgrades aren't decided by abstract ideals — they're decided by who can coordinate miners, code, and liquidity fastest. That's why power tends to cluster with aligned institutional actors, and why future changes will follow the same political playbook. States would like to keep their monopoly on money issuance and aren't fond of permissionless money. Bitcoin's survival and adoption, as censorship-resistant money, depend on whether its most committed users can detect, coordinate, and counter inevitable policy, market, and social attacks. This is tough to do if you're oblivious to what's happening. It doesn't help that Bitcoin mining is awfully centralized ( ). The solution of course is a more vigilant community and more decentralization everywhere: - miner-selected templates (DATUM/Stratum V2), - more viable client implementations, - privacy and self-custody defaults and better non-custodial payments UX, - routing around perimeters (App-store independence, Cloud independence, ISP resilience, etc), - routine, verifiable Proof-of-Reserves across custodians (anti-Paperization).
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buckyfonds 1 month ago
Started doing more research on how Bitcoin Core's developers have been attacking its sovereign/Medium-of-Exchange use a while back and it's wild. The post became too long for email just from covering: 1. SegWit (BIP141): The “Witness Discount” and Block-Weight Accounting 2. Taproot (BIP340–342): Easier Complex Scripts and Data Embedding 3. Liberalized Data-Carrier Policies (OP_RETURN and “Standardness”) 4. Replace-By-Fee (RBF): From Opt-In to Broad Default 5. Relay and Mempool Settings that favor Large Players 6. Legal-Risk Externalities shifted to Node Operators 7. Increased Block Weight → Centralization Pressure 8. Convenience Defaults: Assumevalid, Pruning, and Checkpoints 9. Deprecation of Non-Standard Scripts 10. Fee-Market “Purism” — No Priority for Payments 11. Lightning Network Bias — L1 as Settlement Only 12. Governance Activations Show Who Sets the Rules 13. Quiet Merchant De-Feature: BIP70 Payment Protocol Deprecation 14. Removal of “Priority by Coin Age” & Free Relay (historical) 15. Dust Limits & MinRelayFee Floors as Gatekeepers 16. Core v30: OP_RETURN/data-carrier expansion (policy) 17. Core v30: RBF ergonomics tilt further to replaceability (wallet/API surface) 18. Core v30: Multiple OP_RETURNs per tx Have written this in as simple as possible terms for non-developers. Will post later when done. image
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buckyfonds 1 month ago
Bitcoin's mining centralization problem (Hashrate ≠ Freedom) - TL;DR Hash power is coordinated by a small number of mining pools. At times, the top 2-3 pools reach or exceed 51%. These pools decide which transactions go into blocks by setting templates and policies — including filters and OFAC (Office of Foreign Assets Control) lists. Individual miners chasing predictable payouts delegate that power upstream. As a result, a regulator only needs to influence a few pool operators, not thousands of ASIC owners.
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buckyfonds 1 month ago
Elon Musk's grandfather was arrested in Canada for being part of a cult hell-bent on installing a technocracy. The cult used to meet each Monday evening in the basement of a public library. image Now, Elon Musk, the poster boy of technocracy is the richest man in the world, "pro free speech" and "pro humanity". Started from the bottom now we here. Many will have seen the chart depicting a dollar's worth over the years. image I'd like to see a chart depicting discernment over the years 😂 Every single one of Elon's companies is run by the government, but the plebs love the "entrepreneurship". - SpaceX - national security launch monopoly. - Tesla - green-transition industrial policy vehicle. - Neuralink - brain–machine interface R&D under DARPA watch. Elon Musk — The Heroic Technologist: - Turns state agendas into heroic challenges ("colonize Mars", "accelerate sustainable energy"). - Makes highly complex state projects legible to the masses (rockets, EVs). - Redefines what is possible, i.e., multi-planetary destiny. https://controlplanecapital.com/p/public-facing-elites-using-myth-making
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buckyfonds 1 month ago
Bitcoin Ossification Client (BOC) — Community-Defended, Minimal-Change, Adversary-Hard https://controlplanecapital.com/p/bitcoin-ossification-client-boc-community TL;DR Bitcoin is a fixed-supply, Proof-of-Work-secured, UTXO-validated settlement network that anyone can fully verify on consumer hardware. Its base layer resists censorship by making it costly — not by trusting gatekeepers. Its rules are simple, explicit, and operationally testable. If a change makes sovereignty harder, or hands control to perimeters, it isn't Bitcoin. Ossify the base. Keep it livable. Adapt through optional layers. That's how Bitcoin survives adversaries who are richer than all of us, and how ordinary people keep the keys to their own money.
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buckyfonds 1 month ago
Many people talk about how the AI sector is in a bubble, and maybe that is the case for some companies, however, they fail to understand that many of the companies with billions in CapEx are actually the government. The end goal of course is AI governance. Many portfolio managers, hedge funds and defense-aligned funds already know this and you can see it reflected in financial markets. So how much AI/High-Performance Computing would the Controllers need for AI governance? Think in three compute tiers (because that's how you'd actually run it at scale): 1. Edge sieve (cheap, everywhere): cameras/phones/routers/ATMs/industrial sensors run tiny models to tag, hash, and discard 99.9% of raw stream. 2. Regional fusion (medium, many): metro/co-lo sites run multi-modal "situation" models across streams (ID, location, payments, comms, logistics). 3. Central brains (heavy, few): national/ally clusters train & steer giant world-models + simulations; push down policies/weights. Back-of-the-envelope capacity (ballpark, not brochure math) - Population-scale monitoring target: suppose you want to continuously cover meaningful signals across ~8B people + critical infrastructure. After edge filtering you still ingest, say, 10–100 events/person/day (payments, travel gates, high-salience comms, checkpoints, high-risk Internet of Things). Call it 10¹¹–10¹² events/day into regional fusion. - Regional fusion inference: lightweight multi-modal models at ~1–10 Giga Floating Point Operations Per Second (GFLOPs)/event (post-edge). That's 10²⁰–10²¹ FLOPs/day ⇒ ~1–10 exaFLOPS (EFLOPs)/s sustained (exaflops/second) just for regional inference. - Central training & simulation: persistent fine-tuning of trillion-parameter world-models, policy Reinforcement Learning, counterfactual simulations. Realistically 10–100 EFLOPs/s peak (not sustained 24/7, but frequent). Plus a few EFLOPs/s for national-level inference/agentic planners. - Power footprint: today’s top AI Data Centers run 100–300 MW each. A governance-grade grid is ~50–150 sites at 100–300 MW = 5–30 GW facility power (Power Usage Effectiveness ~1.2), with bursts and redundancy. That's multiples of current hyperscale. That's far above what's broadly deployed now; not infinite, but constrained by power, High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), packaging, and grid plumbing, not by demand. Accelerator count (NVIDIA H100-ish equivalents): - Moderate regime: ~5M accelerators (IT power ~3–4 GW). - Hard regime: ~20M (IT ~14 GW). - Maximal "omnivision": ~50M (IT ~35 GW). These numbers are feasible only if you solve: High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) output, Chip on Wafer on Substrate (CoWoS)/System on Integrated Chip (SoIC) capacity, 2–3nm leading-edge, and multi-GW interconnect + cooling. CoWoS (Chip on Wafer on Substrate) and SoIC (System on Integrated Chip) capacity refer to the ability of semiconductor packaging technologies to integrate multiple chips and components into a single package, enhancing performance and efficiency. TL;DR 👇️ Takeaway: For AI governance under a low Gross Consent Product lens (stability > truth), demand for AI/HPC is effectively insatiable for a decade. The constraint is power + packaging + memory, not "use cases". More capacity yields broader context windows, deeper cross-domain fusion, faster simulation cycles — directly improving control quality. There is no natural upper bound until the grid and supply chain say "no". More context: https://controlplanecapital.com/p/why-the-controllers-use-public-companies https://controlplanecapital.com/p/state-embedded-investment-thesis https://controlplanecapital.com/p/gross-consent-product-make-informed https://controlplanecapital.com/p/filtering-state-embedded-companies https://controlplanecapital.com/p/public-facing-elites-using-myth-making https://controlplanecapital.com/p/short-selling-weaponized-against
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buckyfonds 1 month ago
One of the few things that excites me about AI videos is realistic, well-made simulations. E.g. imagine a realistic simulation of a world without Central Banks. Imagine a realistic simulation of a world in which the slaves organize a tax revolt and reject fiat slavery. We live in such a weird world that most people will never be able to break the programming unless they can visualize the problem and the solution. Basically all financial analysts track liquidity cycles, but none of them analyze why liquidity is cyclical (at least openly). Allegedly Thomas Jefferson did: - “If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency first by inflation then by deflation the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered... I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies... The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs.” Richard Werner made a documentary (and wrote a book) about this ( Princes of the Yen - ), however, it didn't do a very good job of explicitly stating the problem and didn't identify the solution. The Problem: the Central Banks of all countries (that matter) coordinate liquidity. They cause inflation waves or crises to discipline leverage, herd behavior, migrate usage onto programmable rails, and re-select winners — without the blow-back of permanent financial repression. The only Solution: a mass tax revolt and rejection of fiat slavery. The only way this type of coordination (that you also saw during Covid) works is if we live under a One World Government. https://controlplanecapital.com/p/rivalry-between-countries-is-curated Are we going to be able to create some of these realistic AI simulations and get any type of distribution? There will probably be a very small time window.