Another day sending zaps and writing good notes on Primal. Thanks to everyone who helped and supported me throughout 2025, and I'm counting on you all in this new year of 2026!

Bom dia NOSTR e Primal, O sistema do Petrodólar é, talvez, o pilar mais importante da geopolítica moderna. Ele transformou o dólar americano de uma moeda comum em uma ferramenta de governança global, permitindo que os Estados Unidos mantenham um nível de endividamento e influência que nenhum outro país na história conseguiu.Abaixo, apresento um artigo detalhado sobre esse mecanismo, o ciclo financeiro que ele sustenta e como as criptomoedas surgem como o novo paradigma desse cenário. O Petrodólar: O Ciclo Invisível da Hegemonia Global1. Contexto Histórico: Do Ouro ao "Ouro Negro"Até 1971, o sistema financeiro mundial operava sob o Acordo de Bretton Woods, onde o dólar era lastreado em ouro. No entanto, devido aos altos gastos com a Guerra do Vietnã e programas sociais, os EUA começaram a emitir mais dólares do que tinham em reservas de ouro.Em 15 de agosto de 1971, o presidente Richard Nixon "fechou a janela do ouro", acabando com a conversibilidade. O dólar tornou-se uma moeda puramente fiduciária (baseada na confiança). Para evitar que a moeda perdesse valor global, os EUA precisavam de um novo "lastro".Em 1974, em um acordo histórico entre o Secretário de Estado Henry Kissinger e a família real da Arábia Saudita, nasceu o sistema do Petrodólar. O trato era simples: A Arábia Saudita (e depois toda a OPEP) venderia seu petróleo exclusivamente em dólares. Em troca, os EUA ofereceriam proteção militar e venda de armamentos de ponta aos sauditas. 2. O Ciclo do Petrodólar: O Motor da Dívida Americana. Este acordo criou uma demanda artificial e perpétua por dólares. Se você quer energia, você precisa de dólares. Isso gerou um ciclo financeiro fechado que beneficia os EUA de forma única: * Passo 1: Emissão. O Federal Reserve (Fed) emite dólares. Como o mundo inteiro precisa da moeda para comprar petróleo, os EUA podem imprimir dinheiro com menor risco de hiperinflação imediata, pois a "inflação" é exportada para o resto do mundo. * Passo 2: Empréstimo e Comércio. Países (como o Brasil, Japão ou nações europeias) precisam adquirir dólares. Eles fazem isso exportando produtos para os EUA ou tomando dólares emprestados no mercado internacional. * Passo 3: A Compra de Petróleo. Com os dólares em mãos, esses países pagam aos produtores (como a Arábia Saudita).Passo 4: A Reciclagem de Petrodólares. Os países produtores de petróleo acabam com montanhas de dólares que não podem gastar inteiramente em suas economias locais. Para fazer esse dinheiro render, eles o devolvem aos EUA comprando Títulos do Tesouro Americano (Treasuries). O Resultado: Os EUA compram petróleo (energia real) imprimindo papel, e os vendedores desse petróleo devolvem esse papel para os EUA na forma de empréstimos (títulos da dívida). Basicamente, o mundo financia o déficit americano para ter o direito de comprar energia. * 3. O Cruzamento com o Cenário das Criptomoedas Atualmente, esse sistema enfrenta seu maior desafio desde a década de 70. Países do BRICS buscam a "desdolarização" e as criptomoedas surgem como alternativas tecnológicas a esse modelo centralizado. Bitcoin (BTC): O "Ouro Digital" contra o Fiat. O Bitcoin é a antítese do Petrodólar. Enquanto o Petrodólar depende da emissão infinita de um banco central e de acordos militares, o Bitcoin tem uma oferta finita ($21$ milhões) e é neutro. Reserva de Valor: Se o ciclo do Petrodólar quebrar (com a Arábia Saudita aceitando outras moedas, como o Yuan), a demanda pelo dólar cai e ele se desvaloriza. O BTC surge como um "porto seguro" para nações e indivíduos que não querem ficar presos a uma moeda que perde poder de compra. Ethereum (ETH): O "Petróleo Digital": Se o dólar é a moeda e o petróleo é a energia física, o Ethereum é frequentemente chamado de petróleo digital. Utilidade: Para rodar contratos inteligentes, DeFi (finanças descentralizadas) e operar na rede Ethereum, você precisa pagar "gás" em ETH. Novo Ecossistema: Enquanto o Petrodólar sustenta a economia industrial, o ETH sustenta a economia digital. O ciclo é similar: para participar da nova economia financeira, você precisa da "commodity" (ETH). Stablecoins: O Novo Veículo do Dólar. Curiosamente, as criptomoedas também estão ajudando o dólar. Hoje, empresas de stablecoins (como Tether e Circle) são as maiores compradoras de Títulos do Tesouro Americano, substituindo, em certa medida, a função que os países árabes exerciam na década de 80. Elas compram títulos para lastrear seus dólares digitais, mantendo a demanda pela dívida americana viva no mundo cripto. Conclusão, o sistema do petrodólar permitiu que os EUA se tornassem a maior economia do mundo sem precisar equilibrar suas contas. No entanto, a ascensão de tecnologias descentralizadas e a mudança geopolítica sugerem que estamos entrando em uma era de "multimoedas", onde o petróleo pode ser negociado em BTC, Ouro ou Yuan, diluindo o poder absoluto que Washington deteve nos últimos 50 anos.

Self-Custody of Your Bitcoins: A Comprehensive Guide Welcome to the world of Bitcoin self-custody! Taking control of your own Bitcoin is a crucial step towards true financial sovereignty. This guide will walk you through the essential concepts and practical steps to secure your Bitcoin yourself, rather than relying on third-party exchanges or custodians. Chapter 1: Understanding Self-Custody What is Self-Custody? Self-custody means you, and only you, hold the private keys that control your Bitcoin. This grants you complete ownership and control over your funds, removing reliance on intermediaries. Why Self-Custody? Security: Eliminates third-party risk (exchange hacks, freezes, or insolvency). Sovereignty: You are the sole owner; no one can confiscate or block your funds. Privacy: Transactions are more private when not tied to an exchange account. Control: You have direct access to your Bitcoin 24/7, without permission. The Risks of Third-Party Custody: "Not your keys, not your coin": If an exchange holds your keys, they effectively control your Bitcoin. Hacks and Exploits: Exchanges are prime targets for hackers. Regulatory Interference: Governments can compel exchanges to freeze or confiscate funds. Bankruptcy: If an exchange goes bankrupt, you might lose your funds. Chapter 2: Essential Concepts Private Keys: A private key is a secret number that allows you to spend your Bitcoin. It's the most critical piece of information. Never share it! Public Keys & Bitcoin Addresses: A public key is derived from your private key. A Bitcoin address is a shortened, user-friendly version of your public key, used to receive Bitcoin. Seed Phrase (Mnemonic Phrase): A seed phrase is a list of 12 or 24 words that can be used to recover all your private keys and, consequently, your Bitcoin. It's the human-readable backup of your entire wallet. Keep it extremely safe and secret! Wallet (Software/Hardware): A wallet is a tool that manages your private keys and allows you to send and receive Bitcoin. It doesn't actually "store" Bitcoin; Bitcoin exists on the blockchain. Software Wallets (Hot Wallets): Applications on your computer or phone. Convenient but more susceptible to online threats. Hardware Wallets (Cold Wallets): Physical devices designed to keep your private keys offline. Considered the most secure option for storing significant amounts of Bitcoin. Blockchain: A decentralized, public ledger that records all Bitcoin transactions. Your Bitcoin transactions are recorded here, not "in" your wallet. Chapter 3: Choosing Your Wallet Hardware Wallets (Recommended for most users): These are specialized devices that store your private keys offline. They sign transactions without exposing your keys to the internet, offering superior security. Popular Options: Ledger Nano S/X, Trezor Model One/T, Coldcard Mk4. Pros: High security, resistant to malware, easy to use interface. Cons: Cost, slight learning curve. Software Wallets: Suitable for smaller amounts of Bitcoin or frequent transactions. Desktop Wallets: Electrum, Sparrow Wallet, Exodus. Mobile Wallets: BlueWallet, Samourai Wallet, Muun. Pros: Free, convenient for quick transactions. Cons: Higher risk due to internet connectivity, vulnerable to malware. Chapter 4: The Self-Custody Process (Step-by-Step) Step 1: Acquire a Hardware Wallet (Strongly Recommended) Purchase a hardware wallet directly from the manufacturer's official website to avoid counterfeits or tampered devices. Step 2: Set Up Your Hardware Wallet Initialize the Device: Follow the manufacturer's instructions. This usually involves generating a new seed phrase. Write Down Your Seed Phrase: This is the MOST CRITICAL step. Carefully write down all 12 or 24 words in the exact order, on paper, multiple times. Do not take a photo, type it into a computer, or store it online. Verify Your Seed Phrase: Most hardware wallets will ask you to confirm a few words from your seed phrase to ensure you've written it down correctly. Do this meticulously. Set a PIN: Choose a strong PIN for your device. This protects physical access to your wallet. Backup Your Seed Phrase Securely: Store your paper backups in separate, secure physical locations (e.g., a fireproof safe, a safety deposit box). Consider using a metal seed phrase backup for extreme durability. Step 3: Send a Small Test Transaction Generate a Receiving Address: Use your hardware wallet's companion software to generate a Bitcoin receiving address. Send a Small Amount: From an exchange or another wallet, send a very small amount of Bitcoin (e.g., $5-$10 worth) to this address. Confirm Receipt: Verify that the Bitcoin has arrived in your hardware wallet's interface. This confirms your setup is correct. Step 4: Send Your Main Bitcoin Holdings Generate a New Receiving Address: It's good practice to generate a new address for each transaction for privacy. Send Your Desired Amount: Transfer the bulk of your Bitcoin from your exchange or previous wallet to your hardware wallet. Confirm Receipt: Ensure the full amount has arrived. Step 5: Practice Recovery (Optional but Recommended) If you have a second hardware wallet, or are confident in your backup, you can practice recovering your wallet using your seed phrase on a new, empty device. This builds confidence in your backup. Never enter your seed phrase into an unknown device or online. Chapter 5: Advanced Security Practices Multi-Signature (Multi-Sig) Wallets: Requires multiple private keys to authorize a transaction. For example, a 2-of-3 multi-sig wallet needs any two of three keys to spend Bitcoin. Adds an extra layer of security, especially for larger holdings. Time Locks: Transactions can be programmed to only become spendable after a certain amount of time. Passphrases (25th Word): Some wallets allow you to add an optional 25th word to your seed phrase. This creates a "hidden" wallet. If someone finds your 24-word seed phrase, they won't be able to access your funds without the 25th word. Do not lose this passphrase! Regular Backups: Periodically review your seed phrase backups to ensure they are still legible and secure. Physical Security: Protect your hardware wallet and seed phrase backups from theft, fire, water, and other physical damage. OpSec (Operational Security): Be mindful of who knows you hold Bitcoin, how you discuss it, and what information you share online. Chapter 6: Troubleshooting and Common Mistakes Lost Seed Phrase: If you lose your seed phrase and your hardware wallet breaks, your Bitcoin is gone forever. This is the biggest risk. Incorrect Seed Phrase: Always double-check when writing down and verifying your seed phrase. Sending to the Wrong Address: Bitcoin transactions are irreversible. Always double-check the recipient address. Phishing/Scams: Be wary of unsolicited emails, messages, or websites asking for your seed phrase or private keys. Forgetting PIN/Passphrase: Keep a record of your PIN and any passphrases, but separate from your seed phrase. Conclusion Taking self-custody of your Bitcoin is a powerful and empowering decision. While it comes with the responsibility of securing your own funds, the peace of mind and sovereignty it offers are invaluable. By following the steps outlined in this guide and adhering to best security practices, you can confidently become your own bank. Remember: "Be your own bank, but also be your own security guard." Send zaps and help my work 😉

Good morning Primal and NOSTR. Yhe great day for send zaps and writer notes.

A beautiful late afternoon to send some texts and write notes. Let's go, the week is almost won!

Good afternoon NOSTR and Primal. It’s a great day to send some zaps and write great notes to contribute to the community.

Macroeconomic Analysis: The Post-Maduro EraThe arrest of Nicolás Maduro marks a historical turning point that could transition Venezuela from a "failed state" back into a global energy powerhouse. However, the path to stability is paved with both immediate volatility and long-term promise.1. Global Energy Markets and Oil SupplyVenezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves (approx. 300 billion barrels). The immediate market reaction has been a "knee-jerk" volatility in Brent and WTI prices due to geopolitical uncertainty.Short-term: A "geopolitical risk premium" may temporarily inflate prices if logistics in the Caribbean are disrupted.Long-term: Analysts from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan suggest that a political transition could lead to the lifting of U.S. sanctions. This could eventually bring 1.5 to 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) back to the market, potentially driving global oil prices down by $2–$4 per barrel by the late 2020s.2. Debt Restructuring and Foreign InvestmentVenezuela has been in default since 2017, with an estimated $190–$200 billion in external debt.Sovereign Bonds: Market sentiment has already shifted, with defaulted bonds seeing a surge in "recovery value" expectations.Capital Inflow: Restoring the energy infrastructure will require an estimated $110 billion in capital investment. A pro-Western or transition government would likely seek IMF support and private-sector partnerships to rebuild the Orinoco Belt facilities.3. Regional Stability and MigrationThe "Maduro Collapse" has massive implications for South American neighbors:Inflation & Trade: If a stable government is formed, trade routes (especially with Brazil and Colombia) could reopen, lowering logistics costs for commodities like aluminum and energy.The Migration Factor: Over 7 million Venezuelans have fled in recent years. Macroeconomic stabilization could trigger a "reverse migration," easing the fiscal pressure on the healthcare and education systems of neighboring countries.4. Summary of Macroeconomic IndicatorsIndicatorShort-term Impact (2026)Long-term Outlook (2030)Oil PricesVolatile (High Risk Premium)Bearish (Increased Supply)Sovereign DebtSpeculative RalliesRestructuring & Re-entryGDP GrowthContraction (Instability)Sharp Recovery (Reconstruction)Foreign InvestmentCautious / "Wait and See"High (Energy & Infrastructure)Conclusion: While the arrest creates a power vacuum that brings significant near-term risk, it effectively removes the primary barrier to Venezuela’s reintegration into the global economy. For investors, the focus is no longer on "if" Venezuela will return to the markets, but "how fast" its infrastructure can be repaired.

The Maduro Ouster: A New Paradigm for Bitcoin and Stablecoins Under U.S. Oil ManagementThe fall of Nicolás Maduro and the subsequent direct intervention of the United States in managing Venezuela’s oil infrastructure—via Operation Absolute Resolve in January 2026—mark a paradigm shift not only for energy geopolitics but for the global digital asset ecosystem.As an economist and a specialist in decentralized monetary systems, I present an analysis of how this new scenario redefines the role of Bitcoin and Stablecoins.1. From "State Petro" to Freedom-Based BitcoinFor years, the Maduro regime attempted to instrumentalize the crypto market through the Petro, a failed attempt to create a state-run digital currency backed by oil to circumvent sanctions. With the collapse of the regime, the Petro loses its political purpose and faces a definitive demise.However, Bitcoin (BTC) emerges as the ultimate institutional and social victor. For the Venezuelan population, which already used BTC as a store of value against the hyperinflation of the bolívar, the political transition under U.S. supervision offers a new lease on life:Reduction of Local Regulatory Risk: The end of the persecution of local miners and exchanges allows Venezuela to become a Bitcoin mining hub, leveraging its energy infrastructure now being rehabilitated by American companies.Political Legitimacy: Opposition figures, such as Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado, have long advocated for Bitcoin as a tool for resistance. Under a new administration, Venezuela could be the first country to formally integrate Bitcoin into its national reconstruction strategy.2. Stablecoins: "Digital Dollarization" Under American ManagementStablecoins (especially USDT and USDC) were already the de facto medium of exchange on the streets of Caracas. With the U.S. administering the oil industry, I foresee an acceleration in the convergence between physical oil and the digital dollar.Reconstruction via USDCUnlike USDT (Tether), which has a nebulous relationship with U.S. regulators, USDC (Circle) is set to become the preferred tool for humanitarian aid and infrastructure payments. It is expected that:Oil Flows: A portion of Venezuelan oil settlements under U.S. administration could be tested on blockchain rails to ensure transparency and prevent the corruption that once plagued PDVSA.Remittances and Wages: The Venezuelan economy will undergo official or hybrid dollarization. Stablecoins will serve as the immediate liquidity bridge while the traditional banking system is rebuilt.3. Impact on the Global Energy and Crypto MarketsThe stable re-entry of Venezuelan oil into the global market, managed by Texas-based giants under the direction of Donald Trump, tends to stabilize energy prices in the medium term. For Bitcoin, cheaper and more stable energy is the fuel for network growth (Hashrate).AssetImmediate Impact2026 OutlookBitcoinInitial Volatility (De-risking)Bullish; used as a reserve asset for reconstructionStablecoinsMass retail adoptionDominance of USDC/USDT over paper currencyOil (Brent)Drop in geopolitical risk premiumStabilization at disinflationary levelsConclusion: Venezuela as a Monetary LaboratoryPost-Maduro Venezuela is not just a country in reconstruction; it is the 21st century's greatest experiment in how a devastated economy can leapfrog from monetary chaos to a cutting-edge financial infrastructure based on Bitcoin and Digital Dollars. U.S. administration of the oil industry provides the real-world backing, while the blockchain ensures that the opacity errors of the past do not repeat.How Maduro's Fall Impacts the Bitcoin MarketThis video analyzes the reaction of crypto markets to political instability and how investors use stablecoins as protection in crisis scenarios across Latin America.

Happy New year NOSYR and Primal

Good morning NOSTR and Primal community. The great day for send zaps ando write notes.

Good morning NOSTR, Hey guys, we're wrapping up another year. Here's to an even better 2026!

Don't wish me a Merry Christmas, send me some cash. 'Merry Christmas' doesn't pay my bills or make me happy. Be direct: just send me a transfer. Simple as that.

Mery Christmas Community

Good morning NOSTR!!!!

The Invisible Hand Protecting Your Sats The magic of Bitcoin and decentralized protocols isn't just in the cryptography—it's in the Game Theory. Have you ever wondered why Bitcoin hasn't been hacked despite being a trillion-dollar honey pot? Or why Nostr relays actually work without a CEO? The answer lies in incentive alignment. 1. The Byzantine Generals Problem At the heart of crypto is a classic Game Theory puzzle: how do you get a group of people who don't trust each other to agree on a single truth? In a centralized world, we trust a "General" (like a bank or Twitter). In a decentralized world, Satoshi Nakamoto used Proof of Work to ensure that the cost of lying is always higher than the reward for being honest. 2. Nash Equilibrium in Mining A Nash Equilibrium occurs when no player can benefit by changing their strategy while others keep theirs unchanged. The Miner's Dilemma: If a miner tries to cheat, they waste electricity and lose rewards. The Result: It is mathematically more profitable to secure the network than to attack it. The "selfish" pursuit of profit leads to a secure, altruistic-like result for the whole network. 3. Nostr and the Reputation Game Nostr applies Game Theory to social communication. By using public/private keys, your identity is your stake. Relay Incentives: Relays want to host quality content to attract users (and potentially zaps). Zaps (Lightning Integration): This is the ultimate game theory tool. Instead of empty "likes," we have a value-for-value model. Good content is rewarded with real money, disincentivizing spam and low-effort noise. Why it matters for us Understanding Game Theory helps us realize that Decentralization is inevitable. Not because people are "good," but because systems where incentives are aligned with truth are more resilient than those based on corporate mandates. We aren't just sending notes; we are part of a global, non-cooperative game where the prize is Human Freedom.

The Signal in the Noise: Why Nostr's Decentralized Future is More Critical Than Ever Hey Nostr fam, We're all here because we believe in something fundamentally different. We've seen the internet evolve, and frankly, it's become a battleground. Centralized platforms, once heralded as connectors, have morphed into gatekeepers, censors, and data harvesters. They dictate what we see, who we connect with, and even what narratives are acceptable. The signal is being drowned out by the noise of algorithms and corporate agendas. But then there's Nostr. For those still wrapping their heads around it, Nostr isn't just another social media platform; it's a protocol. It’s a set of rules that allows for truly decentralized communication. No central servers, no single point of failure, no corporate entity pulling the strings. Your keys, your data, your content. It’s a return to the internet's original promise: an open, permissionless space for information exchange. In an age where information integrity is constantly under attack, and censorship lurks around every corner, Nostr isn't just a nice-to-have; it's a critical infrastructure for free speech and genuine connection. Think about it: Resilience Against Censorship: When a government or corporation can't simply flip a switch and silence dissenting voices, the power shifts back to the individual. Unfiltered Information: Algorithms are designed to keep you engaged, not necessarily informed. Nostr's simple relay model means you choose your filters, your sources, and your truth. True Ownership: Your identity and content are tied to your private key, not a platform's database. You own your digital footprint. Innovation Unleashed: Without the constraints of a single corporate vision, developers are free to build new clients, tools, and experiences on top of the Nostr protocol, leading to an explosion of creativity. We're still early, and like any nascent technology, Nostr has its challenges. Discoverability can be tricky, and the user experience is constantly evolving. But these are small hurdles compared to the monumental goal we're striving for: a truly free and open internet. This isn't just about escaping Big Tech; it's about building a more robust, more honest, and more human internet. It's about empowering individuals and fostering genuine communities, free from the manipulations of the centralized web. So, let's keep building. Let's keep sharing. Let's keep pushing the boundaries of what's possible with Nostr. The signal is clear, and it's getting stronger every day. What are your thoughts on Nostr's role in shaping the future of decentralized communication? Let me know below!

Hi Nostr, the great day for send zaps and write notes.

The Quantum Threat to Bitcoin: Assessing the Risk to Digital WalletsThe security of the Bitcoin network relies on cryptographic algorithms that, until now, have been considered practically unbreakable. However, the rapid advancement of Quantum Computing introduces a theoretical "Shor’s Algorithm" threat that could potentially compromise the foundations of blockchain security. 1. The Vulnerability: ECDSA and Public KeysBitcoin uses the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) to generate public keys from private keys . In a pre-quantum world, deriving a private key from a public key would take traditional supercomputers billions of years. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer, however, could perform this calculation in minutes. The primary risk factors include:Public Key Exposure: Only addresses that have previously sent a transaction have their public keys visible on the ledger. P2PK (Pay-to-Public-Key): Older addresses (including many of Satoshi Nakamoto’s original coins) are more vulnerable because their public keys are directly exposed. 2. How it Affects Your WalletThe impact on Bitcoin wallets varies depending on how the address was generated and used:Wallet/Address TypeRisk LevelReasonP2PKH (Legacy/Reused)HighIf a public key is already known to the network, a quantum attacker could derive the private key and drain the funds.Unused/Hashed AddressesLow/ModerateModern addresses are hashed. A quantum computer cannot "see" the public key until a transaction is initiated.In-Flight TransactionsCriticalThe most dangerous window is when a transaction is broadcast but not yet mined. An attacker could intercept the public key and "front-run" the transaction with a higher fee. 3. The "Quantum-Resistant" SolutionThe Bitcoin community is not standing still. The transition to a Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) standard would likely involve a "soft fork" or "hard fork" to implement new signature schemes, such as:Lamport Signatures: A method of creating digital signatures that is resistant to quantum attacks.Quantum-Resistant Soft Forks: Proposals to allow users to migrate funds to new, secure address types. 4. Conclusion: Is it Time to Panic?Most experts agree that a "Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer" (CRQC) is still 10 to 30 years away. While the threat is real, the Bitcoin protocol is upgradeable. The main challenge will be the migration of "lost" or "zombie" coins (like the Genesis block funds) which cannot be moved by their original owners to new quantum-secure addresses.

Good morning Nostr. A heve great day for send zaps e write notes.