By the early 22nd century, books about how the boomer generation killed western civilization, out of pure selfishness, apathy and virtue signaling, will form a genre of its own

How I view markets right now, super high level: The 2010s were a deflation-reflation regime: we saw private deleveraging, austerity, China’s slowdown, peak globalisation, QE. The 2020s so far are really the opposite: fiscal dominance, QT, remilitarisation, supply constraints, tight labour markets, reshoring, that sort of thing. So now we kind of go back and forth between inflation and disinflation (goldilocks). This regime can of course change any time, but only if the source of inflation flips from supply/fiscal to demand. For that we need either 1) a demand shock (credit event, labour-market break, sovereign stress), or 2) forced fiscal tightening. The biggest tail risk I see, outside of geopolitical risks spiraling, is a global sovereign debt scare, something like the eurozone crisis in 2011-12 but with global contagion across developed markets. For Bitcoin, the current environment is still structurally favourable imo. Fiscal dominance + unstable real yields + rising term premia help it (or rather hurt the dollar). BTC thrives when the credibility of sovereign balance sheets is questioned. Liquidity remains constrained for now, but the end of Fed balance-sheet runoff improves liquidity conditions. If the current regime breaks via a demand shock, BTC sells off sharply with other risk assets. But once policy makers respond (QE, rate cuts, fiscal), BTC recovers first and fastest too. A sovereign-debt scare meanwhile would be chaotic in the short run but structurally bullish. The more investors doubt DM fiscal sustainability, the stronger the long-horizon bid for BTC becomes. Volatility up, long-term credibility of fiat down. And if we stay in this regime, I expect BTC to crawl up. So all signs are green imo.

Wall Street’s “crypto” suits aren’t even real suits. In my experience they’re usually either fallen-up IT staff, or fallen-down failed equity portfolio managers and such types. Can’t be taken seriously.

When yield curve control

No on feels as suppressed as a tradfi decision maker who wants to say shit on social media but has 700 compliance people breathing down his neck about appropriate social media use every day

Always thought people like this (and similar specimens) might be in on some elaborate psyop to slow down the adoption of bitcoin at the margins. Because if we all go in at once, chaos ensues

Big finance corporate politics is at its most interesting when you match up careerist “managing up” rank climbers with deep domain experts. Both loathe each other and can’t get rid of the other. When either tries to step into the other’s field, they die

Always found it surprising we saw a mini bull run into the Fed balance sheet unwind. Was imo purely on ETF flows. Tend to think we need a last wick down to decisively kill all shitcoins; but other than that, the environment becomes much more supportive now the unwind has stopped.

Bloomberg.com

Bitcoin Is Starting to Look Like a Digital Tulip

It’s been a tough few weeks for holders of Bitcoin. Not long ago you could, with a little effort, make a reasonable case that it was a bit like g...

"This time, at $89k, we really got them. Haha! rip Bitcoin" -some Bloomberg cunt over the weekend

Groningen

If the US really wants to effectuate change in Europe, they need to play to the European electorate directly and bypass the propaganda machine, by tying security guarantees and economic collaboration to Europeans voting for nationalist and patriotic parties. Anything else keeps getting stuck in the trap European elites have laid, “look the US is backstabbing us”. Show Europeans you’re on their side.

The section on Europe in the US National Security Strategy doc goes hard. All true, and exasperating to read as a European (albeit outside Europe for a decade). It clearly comes from a place of fondness. The question however, is how to win the propaganda war within Europe, to sway the European people to do something about their plight (or whether the US should care enough in the first place to even take it there). The problem is that there are existential fears at play. When the US says “your politicians are playing you, we’re not paying for the war in Ukraine any longer”, whether it’s on this topic or any other, within Europe it is widely seen as a back stabbing action. So any action comes back like a boomerang to hit you in the face. So question is, how can the American people and the US government establish stronger more direct connections with the Europeans, bypassing its perfidious elites? Should they even care?

2011–21: Shitcoins invented by arrogant humans angry they weren’t “early” to Bitcoin, making up lies so they could have their own giga-wealth event by scamming others, not recognizing it was a one-off event. 2021–24: Shitcoins die + general acceptance of this fact, except for a few extremely stubborn cultists enjoying the ever-smaller roller-coaster loop as everyone pukes all over each other. 2025–maybe 2030: Human arrogance strikes again as people will proclaim Bitcoin absolutely dead - “look at it, it dumped from 90k to 85k lmao losers, I’m buying stocks, crypto is dead.” 2030 onwards: Bitcoin finally wins and reaches $1m as humans have depleted all their tricks and propaganda to obstruct that from happening, and it becomes the world’s savings account.

It’s really not complicated, though it’s one of those things all the genius bureaucrats can think of a million complex solutions for without ever touching the logical core. The natural and normal thing is for men and women to be attracted to each other, to become exclusive and start a family against the backdrop of an always slightly dangerous and uncertain world. The man provides security and income. The woman provides warmth, care for household, husband and children. Both gain stability and quality of life, and feel proud and content of their contribution. Because on average it works well, families have 3 kids or more. This is the normal state. What are the man things that break this? 1. Gender roles being distorted through feminist and other (homo)sexual propaganda. The man becomes a sort of woman and the woman becomes a man. Chemistry breaks 2. The government obstructing the provider from providing by running the economy on fake printed money, inflating assets and products versus salaries. Further distorting gender roles as women are now required to work. Wrecking families in the process. 3. The government further obstructing the ability to provide by stealing part of that salary, and also taking over the role of provider and protector itself, all the while importing millions of people from lower IQ countries that pose a danger to the natives, therefore increasing the need for said government protection. Note - I am merely observing. No issues at all with women working, but I see that more as individual cases, we all have our personalities and preferences. I am merely observing that to improve birth rates, you need to get rid of feminism, gay propaganda, taxes, fiat currency (or not run it recklessly), immigration. The solution is easy enough. Africa and Muslim countries have the highest birth rates. They tick all or most these boxes. Mostly poor countries on top. Rich western countries that want higher birth rates simply need to figure out how to be less gay, fake/fiat, feminist and brown.

I used to run a 100k+ account on Twitter/X in a niche that I’ve since grown disinterested in. Grew it from scratch, organically. Given the way privacy/surveillance is going in the real world (chat control etc), I’ve decided to go all in on Nostr.