I think we’re all subconsciously waiting for the moment where Bitcoin becomes an “easy hold”. But the moment it becomes that, it will likely have plateaud in value (think percentage increases a year, not multiple x). Quantum FUD and people disillusioned we didn’t pump harder into QT are bullish, will provide the final trampoline to $1m and beyond.

I work at one of the big financial firms. In fixed income, so managing bond portfolios. As fiat as it gets and somehow probably a dying profession in the long run, but it pays the (fiat) bills. Obviously, I get around and chat to a wide variety of people in and around the firm, so I have a front-row seat to their evolving perspectives on Bitcoin, and dare I say “digital assets” and “tokenisation” and that sort of nonsense. Not the niche “crypto” VC/fund in-crowd, but boomer traditional finance. Back in 2018-19, I remember chatting to the then head of multi-asset over beers and him laughing at me, calling Bitcoin an obvious scam. Five years later, the same guy re-emerges as the “head of digital assets”. He changed his tune on BTC. At the end of the day, we are all mercenaries. Like him, I’ve seen failed equity portfolio managers fall down and IT people fall up into “crypto”. That’s sort of the make-up of this group today. Not imho the best and the brightest. Today, I wouldn’t call Bitcoin something well-loved or understood in the financial industry. Intuitively, they see it more as a necessary box to tick, so they can jump straight over it to move to shitcoin ETFs and tokenisation. We went from “blockchain, not Bitcoin” for 8 years to half a year of “Bitcoin, I guess” to 2 years of “shitcoin tokenisation, baby”. The CEO is now angry that our Bitcoin ETF fees are low, but BlackRock completely ate our lunch, and their ETF is X times bigger. Etc. The problem is, Bitcoin will never change and give these people the fiat excitement and value extraction they so desperately seek. DATs or MSTR building a Bitcoin yield curve aren’t a thing in our world; that’s niche bitcoiner stuff. Tokenisation is just a tech innovation that can probably cut fees down a bit, but is largely meaningless. Shitcoin ETFs aren’t gaining any traction. So there’s a slow realisation setting in that this thing isn’t going anywhere, these departments over-hired, and besides Bitcoin, which is THE thing, there’s really nothing there. I’m seeing depressed faces and people are losing hope. So all in all, the industry still doesn’t get Bitcoin at all and the current setup won’t last. As a fixed income/currency investor, what I think really needs to happen to get to the next stage is for people to understand that BTC is just another ticker for a currency. EUR, USD, JPY, KRW, BTC. Could be just another line item in your portfolio. A currency like all the others, one not issued by a government that is infinitely more scarce. And for that, you need exactly zero “digital assets” people in your firm. They will all come and go as we head into the next phase of understanding.

Soldiers patrolling the streets in European Christmas markets is such a sad sight. Puts me in a state of revolutionary rage

These are legit Stasi numbers, which did an estimated 14-17 daily arrests over the DDR’s existence, for 16-17m people. No signs of revolt yet

Too few people have the humility needed to get that we’re all just lucky passengers on the Bitcoin mega trend. Like our boomer parents were lucky to buy cheap houses that became worth millions. People still seem to live with the idea that what they write about quantum, cycles, China bans or privacy shitcoins somehow is going to affect the trajectory of this thing. It’s your usual human arrogance.

The world is so fucked up, in so many different ways right now that I often don’t even know where to start, so I just say nothing.

Find it so fascinating that the very smartest people don’t seem to comprehend Bitcoin almost entirely because their mental model is “stock” instead of “currency”. As if something is blocking them from accepting that in 2025 amidst a world that looks radically different from even a decade ago, something else than a central government could issue one. Just complete mental inflexibility.

From where I sit, Bitcoin looks to have arrived at the plateau of productivity. Though I’d have that line start from a slightly lower base and with a steeper upwards slope. The early years of excitement and crashes are over. Shitcoins came and went. Now we’re entering an altogether less exciting but more meaningful and fruitful phase for Bitcoin.

I know I come across as a bit of an X normie in a way. That’s deliberate. All the normies must move to Nostr, I am trailblazing for the normies

On the dollar, the main model I work with has the slope of the very front end of the US yield curve (<2y) as a strongly positive driver, slope of the belly (2-10y) as a negative driver, and US treasury market illiquidity as a strong positive driver. I’ll fully work it out on here one day, but this model has nailed all the recent tops and bottoms (recently January 2025 and June-ish). Very strong signal for risk assets etc. Currently implying a fair value 96-101, if it goes above or below that it’s usually an extremely strong signal.

Never cared much about gold besides owning some. But the way gold people have been dunking on BTC in 2025 makes it absolutely MANDATORY we go on a rampage repaying them in kind in the next bitcoin bull market

The X algorithm runs on addiction and agitation, pitting people against each other. On top of that, it is ground zero for astroturfing as well as an infinite variety of ops by intelligence services and governments. More and more I think the poisonous impact of this thing on the world’s psyche is not well understood at all. The globohomo elite probably gets it to an extent, but more in the sense of how it’s a threat to them that the propaganda war is now waged on a public battlefield where they don’t have an advantage, or worse, may have a disadvantage. That enrages them. But the right wingers, conservative types, libertarians etc who are often cheering it on, are also useful idiots to an extent. Tools for the propaganda czars trying to have their impact on the battlefield. Why any normal person would spend even a minute of their time there, is truly beyond me. Literal mind poison. Decentralised algorithm free social media FTW.

When it comes to Bitcoin FUD, I’m a bit of a connoisseur. Seeing the China ban FUD for the twentieth time screams laziness and annoys me. BUT seeing a careful build-up of quantum FUD over months, a believable concern and extremely well timed for the so-called 4 year cycle top, I just sit back and appreciate the show from afar with an approving nod. Every shitcoin influencer cockroach growing increasingly frantic and panicked as the headlines randomly seem to come from all directions. Just makes me sit back and go, “true craftsmanship, good game, well played, we stack some cheap sats”.

It’s quite interesting that Bitcoin haters never learn their lesson. Could be wrong about it for 2 years saying it’s going to dump, all the way up from 16k to 125k. Then the moment it’s down to 90k they start the same nonsense all over again. Until they get humbled again. Can they not see the longer term trend?

In today’s episode of clown world, I am particularly enjoying the storyline where the globohomo elites fan club is upset to hear us say we won’t fight Russia for them.

If you’re still active on X, you’re voluntarily spending your free time on ground zero for psyops and propaganda warfare of all the big intelligence agencies. You are quite literally the product, a little fish swimming amongst the sharks by choice