//The Wire//2300Z July 20, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: CENTCOM CONFIRMS FOUR AMERICAN CASUALTIES FOLLOWING IRANIAN STRIKES IN MIDDLE EAST. ARSON ATTACK REPORTED AT FEDERAL BUILDING IN NYC.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Jordan: Over the weekend CENTCOM confirmed the deaths of three US service members, who were killed as a result of the strikes on a barracks building at Muwaffaq al Salti Airbase. Two of the casualties have been identified as 1LT Tyler James Feehan, and Private Isabella Gonzales. The third casualty officially remains classified as Missing in Action as the remains will require DNA analysis to confirm identity, and has not yet been officially identified. A fourth casualty was also reported somewhere in Iraq, which was the result of an Iranian drone strike. Middle East: Following Iranian targeting of the al-Subiya Power Station, Kuwait has begun to rely on portable substations and generators to provide electricity while repairs are made. The scale of the power outages is not known, but Iranian forces have struck several logistical hubs and electrical power plants over the past few days. In Bahrain, Iranian targeting has remained heavy over the weekend, with several ballistic missile strikes reported at American installations around the country. Strait of Hormuz: Several more merchant vessels were struck over the past few days, most of which were tankers attempting to use the southern Omani route instead of the Iranian route. At least one of these vessels resulted in the crew abandoning ship before being rescued. Iran: After these collective strikes over the weekend, American targeting efforts intensified with the latest bombing campaign focusing on the targeting of bridges and civilian roadway tunnels around Bandar Abbas. Many of the roads that lead to the port city are now cut off, with only a few major roadways allowing access to the city. Several bridges have also already been repaired, and the status of others remains unclear until better satellite imagery is available. -HomeFront- New York: This morning an arson attack was reported at the Federal building in downtown Manhattan. One assailant approached the building with a bucket of gasoline, dumping the bucket at the northeast side of the structure. The suspect immediately ignited the pool of gas, which also contained a mix of commercial grade fireworks. The suspect was immediately detained by the plethora of police already on scene, as the accelerant burned on the sidewalk. Analyst Comment: No motive has yet been conveyed regarding this attack, however some of the paraphernalia scattered throughout the scene of the attack appears to be political in nature, opposing ICE. Washington D.C. - This morning, the latest numbers for Strategic Petroleum Reserve levels were released indicating that over the past week, the US has drained the SPR by an additional 5.1 million barrels, to it's lowest level since the Tanker War in 1983. Analyst Comment: Many might have assumed that the US might have re-stocked the SPR during the two-week ceasefire in the Middle East, however very little oil actually made it out of the region during that time, which amounted to only a tiny fraction of US daily usage. Since the war began five months ago, only a very small percentage of oil has exited the region, and the US has been draining the SPR at breakneck pace in order to keep the country going. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Concerning the American casualties sustained over the weekend, it is extremely important to note that the deaths of 1LT Feehan and PVT Gonzales are officially classified under Operation INHERENT RESOLVE (OIR)...not under Operation EPIC FURY (OEFU). Inherent Resolve is the long-standing mission to combat ISIS in Syria, and not in any way linked to the current war in Iran. As a result, the true number of casualties sustained warrants further investigation. This classification could have been an administrative error, but this would also be a way of camouflaging casualty figures. The Defense Casualty Analysis System (DCAS) is the main database for logging all American casualties, which are defined by military operation. In this case, these deaths are not cataloged under either operation yet, adding to the more broad (but also growing) concerns that the database has been concealing the true number of casualties, specifically the numbers of personnel wounded. In fact, while admonishing these concerns as "baseless and malicious accusations" Assistant Secretary of War Sean Parnell directly contradicted the numbers his own department was producing. He stated in an interview with CBS News that roughly 100 personnel had been wounded throughout the war over the past month....while his own database states that a grand total of zero personnel had been wounded for the month of July, and three in June. If this testimony is accurate, this confirms beyond all doubt that the Pentagon is lying about the number of troops wounded during this campaign. Considering that the Pentagon has disclosed a total of 413x soldiers wounded during this entire campaign, ~100x WIA being reported within a month (which also included a two-week ceasefire) is alarming to say the least. The cause of the fatalities reported over the weekend is also important to note as these deaths were very likely preventable. In the days leading up to the ballistic missile striking the housing at this base, the Iranians successfully struck the Patriot battery in Erbil, Iraq. This missile defense site would have been one of the sites providing protection for missiles launched into Jordan. With this battery offline or at least degraded in some way, it is possible that a clear air corridor existed that allowed Iranian ballistic missiles to fly unchallenged through a gap in air defense coverage. If the Erbil strike also damaged the radar array, it is also very possible that the warning time for an incoming ballistic missile would have been reduced, so any defenses at the target base would have been less effective. Obviously, the true scale of the damage to this air defense site would be classified, so in the public eye we have to guess as to how bad it was based on blurry satellite imagery. However the military commanders who knew the systems and did NOT have to guess, were also the same commanders who had the authority to either issue warnings or orders to disperse from the unprotected Containerized Housing Units (CHUs) that were struck by Iran. The failure of command to disperse their soldiers is what led to these fatalities. The very minute that the Patriot battery was struck in Erbil was a major clue that the Iranians were conducting shaping fires of their own...they were striking the air defense sites so as to open up a gap in air defense coverage, and reach out to American positions with their larger ballistic missiles. Though it is usually in poor taste to reflect on failures in the immediate aftermath of the death of troops, in the interest of expediency sometimes uncomfortable conversations must be had in order to prevent further loss of life. If a gap in air defense coverage is what allowed this strike to happen, it is almost certain that this gap still exists and that the danger to American service members is still not mitigated. For ALL American troops in the Middle East, this observation must be noted: If the Iranians are striking air defense sites, the next assumption must be that the Iranians are planning to strike something that would have been protected by that site. In retrospect this is common sense, but even at this very moment, the continued strikes on American positions (and the nearly total lack of fortification efforts at these bases, even to this day) continues to indicate that the Iranian targeting efforts are not being taken seriously by senior American decision makers. Five months into this war, CENTCOM leadership has still not figured out that the Iranians can strike their bases at will, and as demonstrated by the strikes in Kuwait and Jordan, the US is still not digging in, and also not dispersing enough to avoid troops getting killed. No underground fortification efforts have been undertaken at any base in the Middle East, and satellite imagery indicates that no substantial fortifications have been undertaken either. Granting as much leeway to the Pentagon's decision making process as possible, it is possible that no hardening of defenses would have mattered considering the missiles Iran is launching. Drone defense is one thing, but it would take years to build a bunker that would withstand the impact of an Iranian Fattah or Ghadr missile. Nevertheless, when it comes to defending American positions, doing something is better than doing nothing, and concrete does not take half a year to dry. Even if large-scale construction projects are off the menu, ALL military publications, textbooks, and training scenarios dictate and demand what has been obvious since World War One...Dispersion is the name of the game. This is what kept casualties to a minimum in Bahrain, but different theater commanders have different personal initiatives. Some are more proactive with their defense, and others have done nothing at all, besides making sure that all of the vehicles in the motorpool are lined up neatly. Where this goes from here is anyone's guess, but unless radical and immediate changes are made, the United States will continue to suffer casualties. And as long as the bombing continues which is motivating Iran to target our bases, this indirectly highlights the deficiencies with American air defense technologies, not just for this war, but for the wars to come. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z July 17, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: GULF WAR ESCALATES AS INFRASTRUCTURE TARGETING BEGINS. SIGNIFICANT IRANIAN RETALIATION REPORTED ON AMERICAN INSTALLATIONS. IRANIAN TARGETING OF MERCHANT SHIPPING REMAINS CONSTANT.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The war escalated again overnight, with the United States beginning the series of strikes on bridges and infrastructure targets intended to soften up areas near the coast of Iran. Several bridges were struck in the vicinity of Bandar Abbas, along with the usual nightly strikes on more military targets. On the Iranian side, the targeting of American installations has been substantial over the past few days. In Iraq, Iranian forces successfully struck the Patriot battery in Erbil, with satellite imagery indicating burn scars in the vicinity of where one launcher was previously located. In the UAE, a series of warehouses and probable weapons storage facilities were destroyed at the Zayed Military City. In Kuwait, one of the HIMARS launcher sites on the Iraqi border was targeted, in addition to a desalination plant providing the fresh water supply for Kuwait City. Persian Gulf: The war on the seas continued with many different strikes and incidents being reported around the region. At the northern end of the Gulf, the UKMTO reported an unidentified incident involving a merchant vessel, which was carried out by unknown parties and in the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Sea, several targeting efforts of merchant vessels was reported throughout the day. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Last night's targeting in Iran possibly offers up a clue as to what the military objective of this specific operation might be. The bridges that were struck by the United States are not specifically military targets, however they did offer high-speed avenues of approach to the coastline. If the IRGC ground force needed to reinforce specifically the area of the coastline to the west of Bandar Abbas, north of Qeshm Island, these would be the bridges they would need to use. The bridges that were taken out also would be a way of isolating Bandar Abbas in terms of trade. In addition to the naval base being a military target, this is also a major civilian port city that handles the import of a lot of cargo for the nation (some reports claim up to 80% of Iran's imports arrive at this port). Under normal circumstances, taking out bridges is a tricky subject in the world of military targeting; if the bridge is predominantly used for military purposes, it's usually a valid target, but if it's predominantly a civilian bridge it's not normally legal to target. This categorization gets really blurry really quickly, but what is very clear is that targeting infrastructure like this isolates the military objective into only a few possibilities. Either the United States is attempting to go scorched-earth on civilian infrastructure so as to make life as miserable as possible and thus attempt to turn the populace against the government...or this is pre-shaping fires for other operations that might take place in the vicinity of the coastline. Neither option makes a whole lot of tactical sense, but making sense has not been a prerequisite for any military objective sought so far during this conflict, so the continued targeting over the next few days will probably shed some light on what the objective is with this latest campaign. As of this afternoon, dozens of refueling tankers are once again making their way into the Middle East from Europe and beyond, so the war is likely to continue escalating for foreseeable future. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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Hey everyone, kind of an odd one today. I had a spur of the moment thought this morning and decided that what I was going to say in tomorrow's Intel Update, would be best served as a dedicated podcast/video. I did not want to bog down the more informational content with a full-blown rant segment, so I recorded this separately. Link below!

//The Wire//1800Z July 16, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UKRAINIAN ATTACKS CONTINUE ON RUSSIAN SHIPPING IN BLACK SEA, RUSSIA RETALIATES BY STRIKING UKRAINIAN SHIPPING. WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO SPREAD IN CANADA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: The war in Ukraine has continued to expand, with attacks on Russian merchant vessels remaining constant in the Black Sea. Russia has likewise retaliated by striking Ukrainian vessels also located within the Black Sea, as well as several port cities in southwestern Ukraine. Middle East: The war continues as before, with regular strikes taking place in the coastal regions which have been host to targeting for several days. Last night the US struck the port of Bandar Abbas again, and the Iranians have responded with attacks on Kuwait, which continued sporadically overnight. Analyst Comment: One aspect of the war that has not escalated for now, has been the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. After the initial mutual strikes two days ago, the Saudi's have chosen to back off of this line of effort, probably because they realized how bad of an idea it is to start a fight with the Houthis right now. That Saudi East-West Pipeline is the main asset that is keeping Saudi Arabia in the global oil market right now, and the Houthis can very easily threaten their main revenue source. Canada: Over the past few days, wildfires have continued to spread throughout the nation. As of this morning, at total of 859x wildfires are actively burning nationwide in Canada, most of which are clustered in Ontario, Qeubec, and the Northwest Territories. Of these active fires, 63x are out of control with zero percent containment. Evacuations of thousands of rural and tribal areas have been ordered over thousands of square miles, and air quality alerts have been issued for much of the American northeast and mid-Atlantic due to the smoke. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Though not exactly grabbing front page headlines, the war in Ukraine has continued to expand and become increasingly more serious during this year's summer offensive. Numbers are hard to independently verify, but the Ukrainians claim a total of 136x Russian vessels have been struck so far during this Black Sea targeting campaign since it began last week. This number seems a little high, but what is undeniable is that the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov have become a new front during this war...for both sides, as demonstrated by the Russians now targeting Ukrainian ships. Equally important is the impact this is having on the broader Russian oil market. Previous strikes on petroleum refineries resulted in fuel shortages throughout Russia, which have varied by severity and location. Striking tankers in the Black Sea really only impacts the petroleum export market, and the long-term impacts of this will be interesting to follow. Like it or not, the concept of globalization has functioned as designed, and most nations are linked to each other in ways that are not readily apparent at first. Russia mostly exports oil to India and China, and their exports have remained high during the Persian Gulf crisis. So Ukraine, in striking the oil intended for China, is directly playing a hand in the Gulf War...a conflict thousands of miles away. How this will manifest over the next few weeks will be important. Gas prices in the US have been MUCH cheaper than they should be, due to a long list of factors, one of which has been the Chinese dipping into their own reserves to sharply reduce their demand. Ukraine strikes ships intended for China, and China now has to either dip into their reserves more...or buy more oil from the Middle East, and demand goes up in an already restricted supply chain. The Gulf War is still hot to some degree, and the miniscule flow of oil that had begun to trickle out of the Gulf during the ceasefire has once again slowed to a drip...and now that Ukraine is striking Russian oil intended for China, an already tight oil market is probably going to be squeezed even harder. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//1900Z July 14, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WAR IN MIDDLE EAST REMAINS HOT WITH USA AND IRAN EXCHANGING HEAVY FIRE OVERNIGHT. NEW YORK TIMES JOURNALISTS ISSUED SUBPOENAS REGARDING THEIR REPORTING ON AIR FORCE ONE.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The war continued to escalate overnight, with the attack/counterattack cycle no longer being distinguishable, as all belligerents are now attacking constantly. At least two more ships have been struck in the Strait of Hormuz since last night, and the US has continued to fly continuous sorties to strike targets within Iran. Dozens of targets were struck overnight, with CENTCOM announcing that the sorties took 5 hours to complete throughout the region. As of this morning, nearly all of the targets that have been struck have been within a few hundred yards of the Gulf, with heavy concentrations of targets being located within Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, Chabahar, and Jask, all of which are major naval bases. Most of the Gulf islands have also been struck, with Qeshm and Kish Islands being targeted heavily this afternoon. Conversely, Iran has conducted their own strikes in Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait. In Kuwait, Iranian forces have conducted counter-battery fire on American HIMARS missile launcher sites, with multiple ballistic missile strikes taking place at most of the US bases and missile launch sites all day. Analyst Comment: Over the past 24 hours, the war in the Middle East has returned to the level of fighting first observed during the height of the war back in March. How long this is planned to continue is unknown, but this is not a slight increase in targeting; the war appears to be fully back on once again. United Kingdom: This morning Counterterrorism police released more details regarding a high-profile murder case that took place last week. On Thursday, Ann Widdecombe was found murdered in her home in the town of Haytor in Devon. After her murder was discovered, local authorities immediately referred the case to counterterrorism, and one suspect has already been arrested in conjunction with this case. This suspect has been charged for the murder, and as of this morning terrorism offenses have been added to the list of charges. Analyst Comment: This case is noteworthy as most of the information so far indicates this was a political assassination, and the speed at which authorities have immediately declared this to be a terrorism incident is very, very unusual. Widdecombe was a former Member of Parliament, and in her later years was a familiar conservative political commentator known to weigh in on political issues throughout the nation. More details may or may not come to light in due time regarding the identity of the suspect, but due to the high-profile nature of this murder, this case will be in the headlines for a while. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Yesterday a total of five New York Times reporters have been subpoenaed to appear before a grand jury, to testify regarding their reporting on the alleged security breaches onboard the new Air Force One. Last week, President Trump flew to Turkey for the NATO summit on the new airframe, but during the trip, an undisclosed security issue prompted the Secret Service to switch back to the older platform. Analyst Comment: The details of exactly what the alleged crimes are, have not been disclosed. The New York Times has a history of publishing content which could lead to security issues, but in this case nothing they wrote in their original report appears to have been classified. However, they did explicitly state that they had a source who had classified knowledge of the defenses (or rather, the alleged lack of defenses) on the new Air Force One platform, which is probably why the harsh crackdown on the New York Times. They also made the claim that the new airframe has not had enough time to install the anti-missile countermeasures of the older platform, though no detail on this was provided. Regardless, talking to journalists in any capacity about any of the protection measures used by the White House is a huge no-no, and one of the most sensitive issues that always results in a very heavy-handed response. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As the war in the Persian Gulf rages on, concerns are growing regarding the apparent widening of the war to include the Red Sea region. The mutual targeting between the Saudis and the Houthis in Yemen has continued to some degree, though it's too soon to tell if either party is committed to turning this into a more protracted fight. If that is the chosen course of action, the situation is likely to get very serious. While the Strait of Hormuz remains a hot warzone that has restricted the flow of about 20 million barrels per day out of the region, the Saudi East-West Pipeline system has been working to reduce this deficit by pumping roughly 7 million barrels per day during most of this conflict. This has eased the burden of Hormuz being cut off, and has been one of the main factors keeping oil from reaching $200 per barrel. However, this pipeline runs from the Gulf, across the desert, before terminating in Yanbu at a major oil export terminal. This terminal....is within missile range of the Houthis. Somewhat interestingly, there are also very little air defenses in the southern regions of Saudi Arabia despite the Saudis fighting the Houthis for a couple of decades at this point; nearly all missile defenses are on the northern coastline or in the vicinity of American bases. So far during this conflict, the Iranians have successfully struck the Yanbu oil terminal using extremely long-range (and slow-flying) drones. The Houthis have a much higher chance of success in threatening Yanbu, and if they are able to strike this facility, the global oil crisis will go from worse to worst. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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This week's Intel Update is out! This week has seen a resurgence of many conflicts around the world, as the fate of both Ukraine and the Middle East hang in the balance and both wars heat up. Link below!

//The Wire//2300Z July 9, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS CEASEFIRE REMAINS DEFUNCT FOR NOW. MERCHANT TRAFFIC IN HORMUZ SLOWS TO A CRAWL DUE TO TARGETING.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The war continued to escalate overnight, with many targeting efforts being undertaken by the United States and Iran. Within Iran, the U.S. continued to strike coastal sites and fastboat ports, in addition to striking more substantial infrastructure targets deep within Iran. These strikes continued throughout the day, with explosions being reported around the country this afternoon. On the Iranian side, many strikes were carried out on the usual sites throughout the region. In Kuwait, Ali Al Salem Airbase and Camp Arifjan were targeted, with the Iranians claiming to hit a Patriot battery at one of these sites. In Qatar, a radar installation was targeted, and a fuel depot was targeted in Bahrain. In Jordan, Muwaffaq Salti Air Base was targeted again, with the American Embassy in Amman urging all Americans to shelter in place during the strikes. Drone/missile strikes were also reported targeting U.S. positions in Erbil, Iraq, the success of which is currently unknown. -HomeFront- New York: The Department of Buildings has reported that the former Pfizer building has largely been stabilized, after severe buckling and a partial collapse of the upper floors was observed a few days ago. Various reinforcement operations continue to be undertaken to further stabilize the structure, and a third-party construction firm has been brought in to conduct additional repairs. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Despite many airframes being transferred back to the United States from the Middle East, American targeting within Iran has continued throughout the day. The heavy reliance on Tomahawk munitions (as observed on the ground by Iranians) also adds weight to the theory of the US having to rely on standoff munitions due to the logistical movements resulting in fewer aircraft being available for bombing runs. Also, last night's strikes were also possibly more significant than meets the eye. Locals on the ground reported the Aq Taqeh Khan railway bridge being struck overnight, which was interesting due to it's location being in the far northeastern corner of Iran. This bridge is part of the newly unveiled China-Iran railway network, which is a series of rail lines linking Iran to western China. These lines also meander through the mountains to eventually connect to Russia via Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Taking out this bridge was not only interesting because it is one of the farthest-north targets struck during the entire war, but it's also a very public message to China, who has been long-suspected of shipping the Iranians materiel and supplies to carry on the fight. In the Strait of Hormuz, civilian merchant traffic continued to transit the waterway, but since last night the traffic has slowed to a halt again with very few crossings throughout the day. As a reminder, it takes up to two months for a tanker to make it's way to the US from the Middle East. Consequently, if the Iranians shut down the Strait again due to this targeting (or if companies simply decide that the risk isn't worth it), the world will only have the benefit of a handful of tankers which have been able to make the crossing over the past couple of weeks. This does not even remotely come close to alleviating the problems that prompted the MOU being signed...President Trump himself said that (at the time) the US only had about 4 weeks worth of Strategic Reserve left before shortages began. As the fighting has resumed to some degree, the status of the global energy crisis remains a very real concern, and the clock starts ticking down as the flow of petroleum slows down once again. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z July 8, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MIDDLE EAST CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES AS MAJOR STRIKES REPORTED OVERNIGHT BETWEEN USA AND IRAN. SOMALI CLAN CONFLICT BREWING IN MINNEAPOLIS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Following yesterday's targeting of merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States retaliated by striking many targets within Iran. Several dozen locations were reportedly struck, ranging from naval ports to more substantial bases in the coastal region. Qeshm Island and Kharg Island were struck, in addition to many smaller ports used by IRGCN fastboats. In retaliation, the Iranians conducted strikes on Isa Air Base in Bahrain. Possible strikes were also reported at the former 5th Fleet Headquarters in Manama. Kuwait also reported intercepting 2x ballistic missiles and 13x drones. At least one American MQ-9 drone was also shot down during the night, reportedly somewhere near Bushehr. All total, Iran claims to have conducted 85x strikes in retaliation. As last night's targeting was unfolding, President Trump was still located in Turkey for the NATO summit. During a press conference, he stated that he considered the ceasefire to be over and the Memorandum of Understanding to no longer be in effect. A few hours later, Iranian representatives also stated that the MOU has concluded. -HomeFront- Minnesota: Several small arms engagements have been reported throughout Minneapolis over the past few days. Over the July 4th holiday weekend, several instances of Somali clans targeting each other with fireworks deteriorated from a general nuisance into shootings. A total of four small arms engagements took place Saturday night, and several more shootings have been reported throughout the week, at least one of which took place at a confirmed Somali fraud site, which was being used to launder money until being raided by federal agents earlier this year. Analyst Comment: After the wave of shootings over the weekend, yesterday Ramsey County Sheriff Bob Fletcher issued a statement confirming that all of these shootings were linked to the growing conflict between Somali Clans in the city. These concerns have been growing for some time, and now that the summer fighting season is in full swing, these engagements are likely to continue until the colder seasons arrive. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: If the ceasefire in the Middle East really is over, nobody seems to have told the Air Force, as there were a substantial number of refueling tankers on the ground at Al Udeid Airbase in Qater as of 4 days ago. Due to how vulnerable this base is to Iranian missiles, most major engagements have usually been preceded by this specific base evacuating ahead of a large bombing campaign. The major unanswered question is whether or not this was just a particularly heavy mutual targeting effort, or if this marks a true return to the more kinetic phases of the war. At the moment, it's too soon to tell, but there aren't really enough assets in region to conduct large scale bombing campaigns. Most of the B-52's that were stationed in England have already re-deployed back home to the USA, and over the past two weeks various assorted flights of fighter aircraft have also been making their way back home from the Middle East. It's possible that the MOU is being abandoned without the US returning to the full-blown bombing campaign, with the situation remaining in limbo and neither side really working toward a diplomatic solution. President Trump did threaten to invade Kharg Island again, in addition to re-imposing the US blockade in the Gulf of Oman. The blockade is doable with the US Navy vessels in the region, but Kharg Island is completely off the menu as this was not a viable military objective during the height of the "surge" leading to the war, and now that a significant drawdown has occurred it's even less feasible. Concerning merchant shipping, even though the MOU is now essentially defunct, merchant traffic has continued to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, mostly using the Iranian route. This afternoon, Iranian sources claimed that they will be closing the Strait in response to this latest wave of targeting, but as of this evening many vessels continue to transit using the Iranian route with no problems. This may change this evening as President Trump directly stated that more strikes will take place tonight. Pakistan is attempting to get Iran and the US to re-adopt the MOU and continue the framework of solutions that they had worked out. Once the smoke clears in a few days, the world may be able to determine how likely it is for the US to resume the terms of the MOU, but as the bombing has continued throughout the day, peace is not likely at the moment. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z July 7, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: EXPLOSIONS REPORTED NEAR HOTEL HOUSING FRENCH PRESIDENT DURING STATE VISIT TO DAMASCUS. MONACO BOMBER FOUND DEAD IN UKRAINE. IRAN RESUMES TARGETING OF UNAUTHORIZED TRANSITS OF HORMUZ STRAIT. CONCERNS GROWING REGARDING STATUS OF SENATOR MCCONNELL'S HEALTH, COMPLICATING UPCOMING ELECTION.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Syria: This morning several explosive devices were detonated in Damascus during French President Emmanuel Macron's state visit. The first device took the form of a Vehicle-Bourne IED (VBIED) which was detonated on the street adjacent to the Ministry of Tourism, wounding many people including the Assistant Deputy Minister of Tourism. A few minutes after this device detonated, another device detonated on the street immediately adjacent to the initial blast site. At the time of the blasts, President Macron was staying at the Four Seasons hotel directly across the street from the blast site. Macron was not wounded during the attack, and has not canceled his state visit to Syria. Analyst Comment: This complex attack was very likely targeting Macron himself, or at least trying to get as close as possible to cause diplomatic trouble. Throughout the region, it's extremely common for terror groups to conduct attacks while foreign dignitaries are visiting, so as to embarrass their political leadership. Ukraine: Yesterday one of the lead suspects in the Monaco bombing case was found dead. Anastasiia Berezovska was the individual suspected of dropping off the bomb at the residence of Vadym Yermolaiev a few weeks ago. Berezovska was found at an undisclosed location in Ukraine with multiple gunshots to the head. After her death was discovered, an actively-serving member of the Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian MoD confessed to her murder. Analyst Comment: Very clearly, someone is tying up the loose ends in this case, and doing so very publicly to send a message. Now that the lead suspect in the bombing case is dead, the entire affair is tidied up neatly, and no further investigation can be undertaken regarding who Berezovska was working for. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Concerns are growing regarding the status of Senator Mitch McConnell, who has been hospitalized for several weeks. On June 14th, McConnell was found unconscious on the floor of his home in Capitol Hill after suffering an apparent heart attack. CPR was performed at the scene, and he was transported to a hospital. Apart from those initial details, there is currently no indication of his status beyond unconfirmed rumor. Analyst Comment: McConnell's health has been extremely concerning over the past few years, with several viral media incidents indicating that he is not well. In this case, three days after his heart attack, his wife Elaine Chao traveled to China to meet with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng. As a result of the timing of this visit, and the extreme secrecy surrounding the health of a man who has been of ailing health for years, concerns are growing regarding McConnell's status. In Kentucky, election law regarding position appointments has recently changed. Instead of the Governor being able to make an appointment for the seat, if a Senator dies in office, a special election is now mandatory. As such if McConnell passes away before the election, a special election would have to be held to fill the vacancy of only a couple of months, before the general election in November. However, the timing matters. If a Kentucky Senator dies in office (and thus vacates the seat) less than 63 days before the election, a special election would probably not be required and the normal election goes on. In this case, McConnell is not running again this year but the law regarding his seat still applies, so he must remain alive until September 1st, in order to prevent a special election which would allow a third-party candidate to run for his seat. New York: This morning evacuations were conducted after a high-rise building experienced a partial collapse in midtown Manhattan. The former Pfizer building at 235 E. 42nd St was undergoing major renovations/construction this morning, when approximately 5 floors of the building experienced a partial collapse. A perimeter cordon is currently in place around the building, as pieces of the structure have been falling on the street and sidewalk throughout the morning. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In the Persian Gulf, the Ayatollah's funeral has served as a sort of ceasefire-within-a-"ceasefire", and the United States and Iran took the past week to actually stop shooting at each other. During that time, merchant vessels also took the opportunity to slip through the Strait of Hormuz via the southern Omani route...something that Iran has repeatedly warned against. During the funeral, Iranian forces let this take place, however as of last night patience ran out and the Iranians have returned to striking commercial vessels for taking this route. So far today, a total of 4x confirmed (and probably one more unconfirmed) merchant vessels have been engaged by Iran for trying to sneak through the Strait. This is the most ships that have been struck since the hot-phase of the war, and these targeting efforts were not the result of ship captains unilaterally changing the route. Yesterday, the UKMTO directly stated that merchant traffic may take the southern route without coordinating with the Iranians. This statement was issued knowing full well that the Iranians have been warning ships that they must take the Larak Island route. Exactly who made the decision to issue this statement is unclear, but in effect the UKMTO told ships to take a route that they knew would be unsafe, gambling on the Iranians not conducting strikes during the Ayatollah's funeral. Now, the burning hulls of five ships are evidence that this gamble was ill advised. In response to these attacks, the United States has re-imposed sanctions on Iranian oil exports after granting them permission to export their oil a few weeks ago. Other than the sanctions, the United States is likely to conduct the standard retaliation strikes at random targets near Bandar Abbas over the next few days. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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This week's intel update is out! This week we reflect on the events developing around the world, from wars to disasters, as well as remind ourselves about what this grand national experiment is all about. Happy Independence Day to all, and may we have a prosperous and free future ahead!

//The Wire//1800Z July 3, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI'S FUNERAL BEGINS IN TEHRAN. IMMOLATION INCIDENT REPORTED IN NEW YORK. DHS REPORTS CYBERATTACK AFFECTING INFORMATION EXCHANGE NETWORK.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Iran: This week, the official state funeral for Ayatollah Khamenei began, which has drawn large crowds to Tehran. Khamenei's remains will lie in state in Tehran for three days, before a funeral procession is carried out through the streets of Tehran. On July 7, the body is scheduled to be transported to the city of Qom, before various ceremonies are carried out and he's finally buried in his hometown of Mashhad. Analyst Comment: As nearly all of the upper echelons of Iran's political leadership will be participating in some of these ceremonies, concerns are growing that the Israelis will attempt another series of decapitation strikes during the funeral. Striking the Ayatollah's coffin during the funeral procession just to send a message would also be right up the IDF's alley, but the question remains as to whether the IDF can even manage such an operation so far into Iran at this point. This possibility is pure speculation, however due to the potential for a very serious conflagration to occur once again, this would be worth keeping an eye on for the next few days. On a related note, a surge of several tankers was observed in the Strait of Hormuz, taking advantage of the southern Omani route while the Ayatollah's funeral is ongoing. These vessels were probably gambling on the Iranians not wanting to carry out strikes during a period of mourning, while a lot of the senior decision makers are occupied with traveling to Tehran for the funeral. This clever trick is probably a one-time thing, as the Iranians have demonstrated in the past that they will allow this for a couple of days, before they start striking vessels again. -HomeFront- New York: Yesterday evening an immolation incident was reported at the United Nations building, after a protester set himself on fire during a livestream at the main entrance on United Nations Plaza. The individual has been identified as Lobga Rangzen, an activist affiliated with the Tibetan independence movement. Rangzen was eventually extinguished by building security, but later died at an area hospital. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Yesterday, the Department of Homeland Security announced an investigation into an alleged breach and/or cyberattack on their Homeland Security Information Network, an information sharing network for coordinating between various federal agencies. The breach reportedly involved an older unclassified computer system, and was only discovered recently after occurring back in May. This is a developing story at the time of this report, and so far the main primary sources of this breach are two unidentified whistleblowers who leaked the story to the mainstream media. Following this leak, the DHS quietly confirmed that the breach did take place, but no further comment has been made regarding the national security implications of this incident, or who the culprit was. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z July 2, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING INCIDENT REPORTED IN THAILAND. POTENTIAL TERROR ATTACK THWARTED IN NORTH CAROLINA. GOVERNOR WALZ PARDONS LAOTIAN MIGRANT CONVICTED OF ABUSE, COMPLICATING DEPORTATION. US NAVY HELICOPTER CRASHES IN ARABIAN SEA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Thailand: This morning a vehicle ramming incident was reported in the remote province of Mukdahan, after one individual rammed a vehicle into a group of Buddhist monks who had just departed on a pilgrimage walk on a remote road. A total of 9x monks were killed during the incident, and an unknown number of others wounded. Analyst Comment: The suspect in this case has not been identified, but has been noted as being an 11-year-old child. As a result it's not clear as to if this is genuinely a deliberate action or not. Initially, eyewitness statements claimed it was a deliberate attack, but other eyewitnesses state that the boy was driving too fast and lost control of the vehicle. More generally, attacks on Buddhists on pilgrimage are comparatively rare, but there has been an ongoing conflict to the south of the incident site which has been referred to as the Malay-Muslim Insurgency, which has taken the form of guerilla warfare carried out between factions of Buddhists and Muslims. In Thailand, something as simple as an unrelated child's mistake (though horribly tragic) can always stir up tensions in an already tense region, so this might be something to be aware of for later on. Middle East: Yesterday afternoon the Pentagon announced an aviation incident which involved an MH-60 Sea Hawk helicopter from the USS *GEORGE H.W. BUSH* CSG making an emergency landing feet-wet in the Arabian Sea. Three of the four crew members of the aircraft were rescued immediately after the crash, however the fourth crewmember remains missing. Analyst Comment: CENTCOM has not confirmed the cause of the incident, however the crash is not believed to be the result of combat damage. The Iranians have not claimed to have targeted a helicopter, nor have there been any engagements over the past 24 hours in the region. -HomeFront- Minnesota: Gov. Tim Walz pardoned Tou Lue Vang, a Laotian man who had been convicted of crimes against children years ago. Vang had been engaging in the traditional Laotian practice of taking an unwilling child bride, and was subsequently arrested and given a deportation order back in 2006. He took a plea deal which allowed him avoid prison completely, and for twenty years has been fighting his deportation case. Yesterday, Gov. Walz approved his pardon request roughly a week before his schedule deportation. Analyst Comment: It is unclear as to why a state pardon would have any bearing whatsoever with federal immigration law, but the statements made by Acting DHS Assistant Secretary Lauren Bis suggest that the DHS is not keen to press the issue at the federal level. The DHS press release on this case expressed outrage, but no action to actually continue following through on the deportation. North Carolina: Following the release of court documents yesterday, details have come to light pertaining to a probable attempted terror attack that took place on Sunday in High Point. On Sunday, a member of the security team spotted a suspicious individual approaching Wesley Memorial Methodist Church during the morning services. One suspect arrived in the church parking lot wearing body armor and camouflaged clothing, prompting the attention of a member of the church security staff. Upon approaching the individual, the security guard questioned the suspect, who stated that he was a police officer. As the security team member was an off-duty police officer himself, he instantly knew that the man was lying, and immediately took the man into custody. After more authorities arrived on scene, a search of the suspect's vehicle revealed two flamethrowers, two crossbows, a few hundred rounds of ammunition (unknown type), as well as a small collection of narcotics. The suspect has been identified as William S. Milliken III, a native of Thomasville. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Regarding the potential church terrorism incident, no motive or explanation for the suspicious incident was noted, however incidents like this are extremely common in the world of counterterrorism. Individuals determined to carry out acts of terrorism are frequently known to conduct "dry runs" before the actual attack, so as to both work out the final logistics of their plan, but also to get up the gumption to follow through with the attack. It is not clear as to if this individual had any connection to the church, or had visited the church beforehand. However, arriving exactly during services on Sunday in a full tactical loadout, as primitive as it was, is not something that normally indicates a dry run. Though it is speculation, it's possible that the suspect did not know that the church had security on site, or that the one responder would have been as on-the-ball as he was. Concerning motive, nothing has been disclosed. A would-be assailant who shows up to a terrorist attack with 500x rounds of ammunition but no firearm is an interesting data point, and the choice of crossbows and flamethrowers as an attack vector indicates that a proper firearm probably could not be procured. More details may come to light as this case progresses, but even based on the initial details, this is another reminder for religious institutions to remain vigilant and report any suspicious observations to authorities. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z July 1, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WOMAN ARRESTED IN NEW YORK FOR PROVIDING MATERIEL AID TO TERRORIST GROUP. SUPREME COURT REJECTS BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP CHALLENGE. RECOVERY EFFORTS IN VENEZUELA SLOWLY CONTINUE AMID LOGISTICAL CHALLENGES.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Venezuela: Rescue and recovery efforts have been complicated by growing logistical problems. Before the earthquakes, fuel shortages were extremely common throughout the country, and now the already-strained logistical infrastructure has resulted in many fuel shortages around the country. This has expanded to the point that heavy machinery needed to extract victims is simply not available due to not having enough fuel. Heavy rains which have swept through the disaster zone over the past few days have also presented challenges, and the work in most of the hardest hit areas is slow going. As of this morning, the official death toll is confirmed at 1,943 fatalities, 10,500 injured, and roughly 43,000 persons still missing. Middle East: The situation remains fairly stagnant since the targeting flared up last weekend. Diplomatic talks in Doha have not really yielded any solid agreements yet, though negotiations are ongoing. Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains steady, albeit at lower levels than before the war. -HomeFront- Pennsylvania: Yesterday a major train derailment was reported in Bucks County, which resulted in 16x train cars jumping the tracks near the station in Bensalem. The incident initially resulted in an evacuation of the immediate area around the incident site, due to a few cars containing HAZMAT or potentially toxic substances. The evacuation order was rescinded once an inspection confirmed that none of the tanks had leaked. The investigation into the derailment is underway, and no indication of what caused the incident has been disclosed yet. Washington D.C. - Yesterday the US Supreme Court rejected President Trump's use of executive order to challenge birthright citizenship. The court affirmed that any child born on American soil will be granted citizenship, even if the parents are illegally in the US or are participating in the 'birth tourism' enterprises in the Mariana Islands and Hawaii. New York: The DoJ announced the indictment of a leader of a local Direct Action Movement for Palestinian Liberation (DAMPL) organization, an offshoot entity that was created to provide materiel aid to the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) group in Gaza. Catherine Beth Washburn was arrested after a months-long investigation into the communications between herself and a PIJ fighter in the Middle East. Washburn allegedly sent roughly $30k worth of cryptocurrency to this individual, for purposes of fundraising for future attacks. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Despite the media reporting, PIJ is not an offshoot of Hamas, they are completely different groups. PIJ is a comparatively little-known paramilitary organization in Gaza, which has not really been doing much since their leader was killed some time ago. One interesting detail of the case in New York is the photo of two hand grenades which was provided in the indictment. The devices do not conform to any known style of hand grenade, and appear to be locally-produced copies of American M61 grenades, which indicates this photo was probably taken either in Gaza or somewhere in the Middle East. The indictment made no mention of these grenades actually being in Washburn's possession, which helps clarify that this is not a photo of any evidence recovered in the United States. Washburn's affiliation with DAMPL is far more interesting as this organization has roughly 150-200 members and is mostly known for conducting activities similar to that of the more famous Palestine Action movement. Groups like this tend to branch off into endless splinter cells of splinter cells (usually due to infighting) and this has been the case for this group for some time. Washburn was allegedly a leader of one of the DAMPL cells operating in the Rochester area, which are mostly known for low-level vandalism incidents and more benign protest activity. Last year however, the Boston cell of this group began escalating their operations to include firebombings, with the most recent high-profile attack being a series of IED and incendiary attacks throughout Massachusetts last summer. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z June 29, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK REPORTED IN LONDON. USA AND IRAN AGREE TO RESTART CEASEFIRE AFTER WEEKEND TARGETING EFFORTS. LEBANON INVASION CONTINUES. MASS SHOOTING REPORTED IN GERMANY. DISASTER AID TO VENEZUELA RAMPS UP AMID LOCAL TENSIONS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Persian Gulf: Over the weekend, the war continued as both Iran and the United States conducted mutual targeting efforts after the stock market closed on Friday. Several strikes were reported within Iran, along with the Iranian targeting of another merchant vessel on Saturday. Sunday morning, Qatar stated that a small merchant vessel was struck by an Iranian munition somewhere off their coastline, which resulted in one fatality. After these tit-for-tat targeting efforts, the U.S. and Iran have allegedly agreed that the ceasefire is back on. Lebanon: Following the signing of the agreement between the U.S./Israel and the Lebanese government, the IDF's invasion has continued within southern Lebanon. Lebanese citizens have continued fleeing the city of Nabatiyeh, with airstrikes being reported all along the eastern front over the past few days. United Kingdom: On Saturday a vehicle ramming attack was reported in London after a Somalian man rammed his vehicle into a crowd of people outside a row of shops on The Broadway. A total of five people were wounded during the attack, and the suspect has been identified as Timir Ahmed Mohamed. He has been charged with multiple counts of attempted murder. Germany: This morning a mass shooting was reported in Stade, a small city in northern Germany west of Hamburg. At least one gunman conducted a small arms attack on Dankersstraße, in the residential sector of the town. A total of 5x people were killed during the attack, and the assailant was reportedly detained at the scene. In addition to the shooter, one other individual was also arrested at the scene. No further details have been provided, and the scene remains heavily locked down. Venezuela: Earthquake rescue and recovery efforts continue as the casualty count rises. Officially the death toll stands at over 1,719 confirmed fatalities, with tens of thousands of people either injured or displaced after their homes were destroyed. Several aftershocks with an estimated magnitude of M5.0 struck the disaster zone since the two main earthquakes devastated the region. This resulted in a few more building collapses, and has made rescue operations extremely dangerous for all involved. Analyst Comment: Concerning the American rescue efforts, U.S. Marines from Combat Logistics Battalion 8, Medium Tiltrotor Squadron (VMM) 365, and the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit were on the ground immediately after the earthquakes, delivering aid and logistics as part of the American aid effort. The priority at the moment is the repair of Simón Bolívar Airport in Catia La Mar and Francisco De Miranda Airport in Caracas, both of which suffered significant damage which will need to be repaired for more heavy machinery and disaster aid to be flown in. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In Venezuela, local corruption complaints have also begun to manifest, which has complicated rescue and recovery efforts. Uniformed Bolivarian soldiers have allegedly been observed looting from collapsed buildings, and many local politicians and military leaders have also been accused of hindering recovery efforts so as to extract bribes. Corruption throughout South America is extremely engrained throughout all levels of governance and society, and as a result even the most devastating disasters ever seen also attract those seeking to capitalize on the chaos. This hits especially hard due to the sheer scale of the disaster, which has left many communities to fend for themselves. Disasters almost always bring out the very best and the very worst of society, and Venezuela was already struggling beforehand. These hardships have in turn lead to the population turning their anger toward government almost immediately after the dust settled, and the US operation to capture Maduro earlier this year has complicated the situation significantly. For instance, one of the government figures who is involved in disaster aid is Minister of the Interior Diosdado Cabello (Rondón), who has been observed allegedly hindering disaster aid. For context, Cabello is currently wanted by the United States, and has a $25 million bounty on his head, which is still active. Yet, American rescue agencies on the ground are being given the runaround by him and his staff. Even the Venezuelan politicians hand-picked by the White House to lead in Maduro's absence are having trouble. Delcy Rodríguez, the individual who became President after the United States captured Maduro, was not very popular even before the earthquakes and was simply the only leader that seemed like a feasible puppet for the United States to control in the wake of the Venezuelan conflict. Managing the current disaster would be a challenge for anyone, but in this case Rodríguez is new on the job and the government was already barely functioning due to the political infighting that always occurs when a dictator is suddenly removed from the equation. Rodríguez also showing up to talk to impoverished disaster victims while wearing luxury clothing that costs more than the average yearly salary for most Venezuelans did not do her any favors either. In the western world, this would be considered a political gaffe, or something that is generally in poor taste considering that the victims have lost everything they have. But in South America, this is the kind of misstep that usually results in more discontent than one might think. As a result, the situation is tenuous all around; political infighting, corruption, and power-plays are all on the table while tens of thousands of victims attempt to dig through the rubble, and try to figure out what to do next. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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This week's intel update is out! From floods and earthquakes, to flesh-eating larvae and ballistic missiles, it's been a rather odd week of events around the world. The next week will be rather tenuous (as always) as the hot-ceasefire in the Middle East continues to result in mutual targeting efforts on all sides, even as peace negotiations continue. Check it out here:

This week's Intel Update is out! Right on the edge of peace in the Middle East, this week things appear to be on very rocky ground. The potential for derailing the peace talks is high, and many true colors are coming to light as the world awaits a settlement to a rather complicated war. Link below:

//The Wire//2300Z June 19, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WAR IN LEBANON INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT, IRANIAN DELEGATION DEPARTS SWITZERLAND AS STATUS OF PEACE TALKS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. UNIDENTIFIED MAN THROWS CHILD IN CROCODILE PIT IN CAMBRIDGESHIRE BEFORE BEING IMMEDIATELY RELEASED BY POLICE.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: After the ceasefire document was signed in Versailles yesterday, Israeli forces conducted large-scale bombing campaigns in Lebanon. Dozens of airstrikes were reported along the southern and eastern fronts as the cities of Maifadoun, Nabatieh, and Toul were heavily targeted this morning. The number of casualties remains unknown as most of the region surrounding this cluster of towns was destroyed by the bombing. At some point during the night, Hezbollah conducted an ATGM (Anti-Tank Guided Missile) attack on an IDF tank which killed four crewmembers. This prompted an even more substantial IDF response, which continued throughout the night. By morning, several reports of a ceasefire emerged between the IDF and Hezbollah, scheduled to take place at 4:00pm local time. However, as of this report several strikes have taken place after the ceasefire, and the status of the alleged halt to the fighting remains uncertain. Analyst Comment: As the bombing in Lebanon has continued throughout this morning, limited reporting out of Switzerland suggests that the Iranian delegation has departed ahead of schedule, and peace talks have been halted. Some initial reports also circulated stating that the Strait of Hormuz had been re-closed as well, however as of this report this might have been a knee-jerk reaction that has been mitigated and merchant traffic has continued to increase throughout the Persian Gulf this afternoon. United Kingdom: This morning an attack was reported at Johnsons of Old Hurst, a tourist farm/venue in Cambridgeshire. The incident involved a 30-year-old man (who was attended by two caregivers), snatching a 3-year-old child, and throwing him into the crocodile enclosure at the small zoo section of the farm. The zoo owner's wife jumped into the enclosure and rescued the boy, while visitors detained the man who conducted the attack. Analyst Comment: The assailant had no connection with the victim, and the attack appears to be random. This case has added to the already-high levels of outrage as the suspect's name and appearance is being withheld...but he's already been released from police custody, as the police deemed him too mentally ill to even be interviewed. Instead, he was released from custody altogether. The boy who was thrown into the enclosure was bitten by a crocodile, and remains hospitalized undergoing treatment. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: If the bombing in Lebanon carries on, the peace deal has little chance of lasting the weekend. In fact, it might already be too late if the Iranians decide that the United States is not capable of constraining the Israelis in Lebanon. The White House has attempted to tame the situation by reportedly assuring the Iranians that the targeting is over, however as this reporting hit social media, the Israeli's were still hitting Lebanon. Also, reports on the timing of last night's events vary somewhat. Some reports claim that the Israeli's were only responding to the targeting of the armored column, which prompted the bombing. However, the tank that was hit was advancing (not withdrawing) and at the time it was located about 6 miles into Lebanese territory on the northwest side of the Litani River. Also, some reports claim that the bombing campaign actually began before the tank was struck by Hezbollah, but these local reports are hard to verify. In the context of the peace agreement that has found itself on rocky ground, the targeting efforts overnight were not a small engagement...this was a substantial bombing campaign that is probably the IDF's biggest push so far in Lebanon. Many locations were completely leveled and it's quite clear that the Israelis gave some cities throughout southern Lebanon a miniature version of the Gaza treatment last night. It is quite possible that this is the standard final punch below the belt after the bell, and it would have been extremely naive for either the United States or Iran to not assume that this would happen immediately upon a ceasefire agreement being signed. As a result, it's not certain as to if this will outright derail the deal; this may have been an assumption that was already baked in to what the U.S. and Iran agreed to behind closed doors. Nevertheless the main issue for the world, the Strait of Hormuz, remains the main point of leverage. If the Iranians want to press the issue by closing the Strait again, that's up to them and so far it's hard to say how they might handle the issue. Both sides can see the elephant in the room, and both sides know the difficulty in addressing it. The next big friction point will be in determining what this stunt has cost the American diplomatic team in terms of negotiating terms and getting the Iranians back to the table. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z June 18, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MOU SIGNED BY IRAN AND THE UNITED STATES TO BEGIN THE PROCESS TO END THE WAR. UKRAINIAN DRONE ATTACK STRIKES PETROLEUM INFRASTRUCTURE IN MOSCOW.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Last night President Trump and President Pezeshkian signed the Memorandum of Understanding to start the process of ending the war. The agreement was signed early, while President Trump was participating in a state dinner with President Macron in Versailles. Two different physical copies of the document were signed, one in English and one in the Persian language of Farsi. Analyst Comment: President Pezeshkian also signed the document on camera in Tehran, and provided scans of the document he signed, and so far the terms themselves are identical to what was disclosed by CNN yesterday, or at least they appear to be. The American copy of the deal has not yet been published by the White House. Strait of Hormuz: This afternoon CENTCOM announced the lifting of the American blockade, and some merchant traffic is moving, with one French LNG tanker, and a few Saudi tankers exiting the Strait overnight. A few dozen other ships have continued to enter/exit the Persian Gulf over the past few days (mostly local or Iranian-aligned traffic), and all shipping has so far used the new Iranian route to the north of the traditional traffic separation scheme. Russia: Overnight, Ukraine conducted a large scale drone attack on Moscow, targeting petroleum infrastructure. Ukraine conducted the attack with hundreds of long-range drones, with most being intercepted before reaching their targets. However, several drones successfully evaded air defenses, striking the Kapotnya Refinery to the southeast of the city. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The strikes in Moscow are the latest escalation this fighting season, with both sides trading attacks on major cities over the past few months. Russia has been hitting Kiev with hundreds of drones each week, and Ukraine has likewise been targeting Russian oil infrastructure throughout the nation. This is no different than how the war has been fought so far, but at this late hour, the ferocity of the efforts on all sides has become intense. Both sides seek to make as much progress as possible before winter, with the Russians looking to continue their advances on the Eastern Front, while the Ukrainians want to strike deep into Russia to pressure the Russian population and economy. Time will tell how this develops over the next few weeks, but with alleged peace ideations being present on both sides of this conflict, both sides will continue tradition, and try to take ground before approaching the negotiating table once again. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z June 17, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UNITED STATES RELEASES TERMS OF MOU TO END THE GULF WAR. CONFUSION ABOUNDS REGARDING STATUS OF MERCHANT SHIPPING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. INTERSTATE SHOOTING SPREE CONDUCTED IN KANSAS CITY. RAPE GANG INQUIRY REPORT RELEASED IN UNITED KINGDOM.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: This morning, the United States published the text of the upcoming Memorandum of Understanding, which is to be signed on Friday. This disclosure was made by American officials to CNN and Bloomberg at the G7 summit, who verbally read the terms and provided the text to MSM outlets. Per this text, the general gist of the deal is very similar to what the Iranians claim, but with some minor differences. The most contentious item of the deal is right up front in Paragraph 1: the war in Lebanon is included as part of the deal. *All* sanctions on Iran will also be lifted, and a $300 billion reparations payment will be funded by the United States and other Arab nations for the reconstruction of Iran's infrastructure that was destroyed in the war. President Trump also verbally stated that Iran's missile program will remain, and is not part of the deal. Strait of Hormuz: The status of shipping remains uncertain as both sides continue to enforce the mutual blockades. Several Iranian ships have crossed the American blockade line, despite NAVCENT stating that the blockade is still in effect, but western-aligned ships have been hesitant to make the crossing due to the confusion. Analyst Comment: Right now a lot of commercial firms and insurance companies are trying to figure out what to do, and a surge of petroleum tankers is heading toward the Middle East right now, as the world awaits the resumption of normal shipping this weekend. The US and Iran have thirty days after Friday to allow shipping to resume, but 60 days after the agreement is signed, Iran will retain the right to charge tolls for access to the Persian Gulf, granting the Iranians de facto control of the waterway. As a result, the insurance status of commercial shipping remains unclear, though rates will very likely be permanently elevated, much like how many shipping companies never reverted back to the Red Sea route following the Houthi targeting two years ago. Many companies still take the longer route around Africa, so that situation has not yet returned to normal, and though alternative access routes for the Persian Gulf don't really exist, it will take many months for shipping to work out the details of how to proceed. -HomeFront- Missouri: Last night, a mass shooting spree was reported throughout Kansas City as one assailant conducted small arms attacks at five different sites throughout the city. Local authorities state that all of these shootings stem from the same incident, which appears to involve an individual in a vehicle, traveling eastbound on I-70 shooting at other vehicles also traveling the same direction. Later that night, a fifth shooting site was located after a man was found wounded in his vehicle at the intersection of Truman Road and Bennington Avenue. This man later died at a local hospital. All total, five different vehicles were targeted, and a total of four people were wounded, and one person killed, during the attacks throughout the day. By this morning, the link between all shootings was discovered, and the suspect was located at his residence in Independence, where a barricaded-shooter situation is currently underway. More details are expected as the situation develops. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In the United Kingdom, the Rape Gang Inquiry Report was released last night. This report was compiled by a Parliamentary effort led by MP Rupert Lowe, with the goal of investigating the official documents and criminal cases of mass the rape of British society by Pakistani men since the 1950's. Specifically, the investigation seeks to examine the industrialization of rape, organized into cells or Rape Gangs, which conducted assaults on a scale never before seen by the civilized world. This report revealed that an minimum of 250,000 British girls have been systemically raped, tortured, and victimized by these gangs, which included a large percentage of police officers, judges, and Members of Parliament. An entire ecosystem had been established for the police to arrest any victims of the gangs, with victims in most cases being raped hundreds of times by police officers while allegedly being in victim protection programs, even after the scandal became public years ago. Nearly 40% of the land mass of the nation was host to these gangs, which were not conducting isolated attacks, but industrial-scale crimes at a volume that is simply indescribable. The 200+ page report is not for the faint of heart as it describes in excruciating detail the evidence examined in this case, and nearly all of it is too horrific for mixed company. The closest approximation for a wider audience would be to imagine a network of *hundreds of thousands* of Jeffrey Epsteins, committing acts that were so horrific that Epstein's own network did not engage in this level of depravity. For most people, this document will be the absolute worst thing they will ever read in their entire life. Right now, the western world is at an impasse. The recent social tension in the U.K. due to the stabbing attacks has served as a primer for whatever comes next. Understanding the severity of this report, the National Crime Agency has snapped-to, and ordered the re-investigation of rape gang reports going back to 2010, in an attempt to get ahead of the tidal wave of righteous anger that has begun to rise throughout society. The entire Child Services ecosystem of the United Kingdom is currently serving as a clearing house to funnel a quarter of a million children to Muslim rape gangs. Kier Starmer himself was the director of Public Prosecutions during the height of this atrocity, and personally signed off on ~13,000 rape gang members being released with nothing more than a warning letter. If these people were sent a letter, that means they have names and addresses. It will be for the British people to decide how best to proceed, and it will take some time for organizational efforts to take hold, considering the sheer scale of this crisis. It will also be wise to consider that this problemset is not unique (nor contained) to the British Isles. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

GhostNotes - S2 Underground GhostNotes - Obsidian Publish

Hello everyone, welcome to GhostNotes, a project to convert a lot of the S2 Underground

Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

This week's intel update is out! Once more another week blazes by, and the conflagrations around the world continue to simmer. From the Fiery-But-Mostly-Irish protests in Northern Ireland, to a bit of mathematical impossibilities in the Middle East, the summertime keeps heating up all around. Link: