This week's intel update is out! This week we take a look at how the multiple wars are going on overseas; from Scandinavia to Indochina, things are heating up as the Ukraine and Persian Gulf wars complicate life for most of us here at home. Link:

//The Wire//2300Z March 27, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: GULF WAR CONTINUES AS SHIPPING COMPANIES MAKE DEALS WITH IRAN. WAR IN LEBANON REMAINS INTENSE AS IDF NEARS LITANI ON THE EASTERN FRONT. AIRSTRIKES REPORTED AT TWO IRANIAN URANIUM PRODUCTION FACILITIES.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: Offensive actions and targeting efforts by all sides were temporarily degraded last night as a major storm system descended on the region. A supercell storm system similar to a cyclone descended on the UAE last night, with severe flooding and high winds being reported throughout Dubai. After the weather cleared, major Iranian targeting efforts were reported throughout the region. Port facilitates were struck in Kuwait, and a large fire was observed at the parking apron used by American aircraft at Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia, with the smoke plume being visible on Sentinel satellite imagery from this morning. Iran: This morning American/Israeli forces struck multiple nuclear production facilities. The Arak Heavy Water Facility (which was struck years ago) was struck again this morning, and the Yellowcake Refinery in Ardakan was also struck. Analyst Comment: The risk of radiological release at either facility is low, as Arak was not functional and Ardakan was not host to enriched Uranium itself. However, monitoring will continue as radioactive dust is likely to contaminate the local area to some degree, and time will tell how these threats develop as the strikes continue. Lebanon: Israeli forces continue their advance north toward the Litani River, as FPV drone attacks by Hezbollah become more significant. Two drone attacks on Israeli armored columns were reported last night, along the eastern axis of advance. Israeli forces along the eastern front have made the most progress toward the river, with IDF units being observed in the town of Taybeh this morning. Analyst Comment: Hezbollah's media group claims that a total of 21 Merkava tanks have been destroyed so far this campaign, however as always these numbers are usually overinflated. Concerning tank casualties, it's incredibly difficult to tell from a video clip if a vehicle was actually penetrated or not, and most of the clips provided by Hezbollah conveniently cut away before the tank's Trophy countermeasure system is activated. This means that counting destroyed/disabled tanks is mostly a wash. However, from the clips and reports on the ground, this is not an easy fight for the Israelis either. Anti-Tank Guided Missile attacks are a mainstay of Hezbollah, and these attacks have been effective in making the Israeli advance more costly than expected. -HomeFront- Iowa: Last night a major egg farm burned down in Corwith. The Hawkeye Pride egg production facility caught fire shortly after 6:00pm yesterday evening, which resulted in significant damage to the egg farm. Hawkeye Pride is one of the largest cage-free egg producers in the United States, and the extent of the damage to the henhouses has not yet been determined. California: Yesterday evening a blackout was reported in Orange County, mostly affecting the areas of Carlsbad and Encinitas, as well as areas south of Escondido. The cause of the electrical outage has not yet been reported, but services were mostly restored for many customers by sunrise. Florida: Following up on the recent IED threat to MacDill Air Force Base, two individuals have been identified as the culprits of the attack. Ann Mary Zheng and her brother Alen Zheng (both Chinese nationals) have been indicted on charges of emplacing the IED at the visitor's center on March 10th before it was discovered by authorities on March 16th. Mary Zheng was arrested on Wednesday after returning to the United States, while her brother remains in China. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Many nationstates have made their deals with the Iranians to allow their shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, however due to the complex nature of a war being undertaken throughout the region, it's still a tenuous journey for commercial companies. Cargo is beginning to flow to China, Japan, and India but the volume of shipping through the Strait remains severely below normal levels. Iranian targeting efforts have proven to be effective, and vessels are not transiting the Strait at all, without prior coordination with Iranian officials, which schedule vessels to transit to Larak Island for inspection, before continuing through the Strait. At the current rate, the handful of ships that make it through each day are not nearly enough to stop very serious things from happening. Complex systems are beginning to be impacted quite significantly now that the war in the Middle East (and the subsequent halt to maritime traffic throughout the region) has been going on for one month. Diesel rationing is well underway in some parts of Australia, and limited unrest has been reported throughout Southeast Asia as gasoline shortages spread throughout the region. Just as with the start of the war in Ukraine, it will probably take several more months for international markets and supply chains to settle in to some sort of reliability. However since this conflict involves a major maritime choke point, it's very likely that even though many nations are attempting to re-route supply chains as best they can, disruptions are likely to continue for a while. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//1800Z March 26, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UKRAINE TARGETS RUSSIAN OIL INFRASTRUCTURE NEAR ST. PETERSBURG. QATAR SEEKS DEAL WITH IRAN TO CEASE IRANIAN ATTACKS ON QATARI OIL REFINERIES.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: The conflict continues for the main belligerents, while several GCC states seek a more neutral approach. The nation of Qatar has reportedly struck a deal with the Iranians to settle the dispute between their nations, and as a result Iranian strikes within Qatar have shifted to solely targeting American equipment and installations instead of Qatari oil infrastructure. In Kuwait, operations at the airport remain degraded as the fuel tanks that were struck yesterday continued burning overnight. Iranian strikes on Israeli infrastructure have continued, with multiple strikes being reported in Tel Aviv yesterday evening. Lebanon: Israeli forces continued their northern push along an axis of advance from the south, and from the east. Over the past three days, Israeli targeting efforts have concentrated fire on various targets south of the Litani, in preparation for the subsequent ground movements. On Tuesday, the Israeli Defense Minister openly stated the goal of invading Lebanon is to seize all of the terrain south of the Litani River. This plan has been supported by the destruction of bridges across the Litani River, which has been intensifying over the past few days. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: As the war rages in the Middle East, the conflict in Europe has seen a resurgence of offensive actions over the past few days. Last night, the M/T *ALTURA* was struck by a drone (likely Ukrainian) in the Black Sea shortly after departing Russia with a cargo of oil. This is the second such strike in recent weeks, which also follows multiple substantial strikes on Russian oil infrastructure over the past few days, which have substantially degraded Russia's oil export capability in the north. The oil export terminal in Ust-Luga was struck two days ago, resulting in substantial damage to Russia's main oil terminal on the Baltic Sea. Similarly, the oil terminal in Primorsk was also hit by Ukrainian drones, with both facilities remaining on fire as of this morning. Both of these attacks are significant as they are likely a strategic attempt to reduce the capabilities for Russia to capitalize on the growing energy crisis in the Middle East, linking the two conflicts at the strategic level to some degree. Growing reports are also emerging that suggest Russia may be supplying the Iranians with drones, or the components to make them. At the moment, this is just rumor that's impossible to confirm with any reliability, but it would make a lot of sense for Russia to want to turn the screws to the United States after it's become clear that it's just as hard for us to extricate ourselves from our own "special military operation" as it has been for Russia. Focusing on the more tangible aspects of the war, the targeting efforts in the Baltic are also a demonstration of why it is a very wise move to remained generally informed on wars that are being fought on the other side of the world...in the age of the drone a war being fought in Persia can threaten Scandinavia due to the nature of combatants everywhere seeking to capitalize on a conflict in a faraway land. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//1900Z March 24, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST DESPITE ALLEGED CEASEFIRE. EXPLOSION REPORTED AT TEXAS REFINERY.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: The alleged ceasefire was broken immediately after it was announced yesterday. Israeli PM Netanyahu directly and clearly stated that regardless of the American ceasefire, the Israelis will continue targeting efforts. Which they did yesterday evening as the strikes in Tehran continued. After these targeting efforts were undertaken, Iranian forces retaliated with drone/missile attacks on Israel, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The United States likewise has not been observed to reduce targeting efforts at all, with plane spotters in England continuing to witness American B-52's constantly departing RAF Fairford with bombs slung underwing, before returning many hours later empty. Analyst Comment: This adds more weight to the theory that the "ceasefire" was probably not very serious, and possibly intended to buy time for more troop movements and resupply operations. Again, time will tell how this develops, but right now, no cessation of bombings ever went into effect. Strait of Hormuz: Traffic through the Strait has begun to trickle through in an organized manner as Iranian officials have cut deals with various nations, to allow their ships to transit the waterway. Around a dozen ships have passed through the Strait by diverting into Iranian waters, for inspection by Iranian forces in the vicinity of Larak Island. Analyst Comment: The Larak-tollbooth arrangement started coming into effect last week, and as of this morning is beginning to see more regular use. More strategically, this procedure is vastly more important than it seems as this arrangement is both granting the Iranians more international prestige, but also reducing tensions with other nations (such as China, India, and Japan), who have also been impacted by the war. Selectively allowing ships to transit narrows the scope of Iranian targeting to more directly target the United States, instead of just halting traffic to the rest of the world. -HomeFront- Texas: Yesterday afternoon a major explosion and subsequent fire was reported at the Valero Refinery in Port Arthur. Local shelter-in-place orders were issued as authorities extinguished the fire over a period of several hours. The cause of the explosion/fire has not been disclosed. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: The timing of this incident is indeed quite suspicious, however at the moment there's really not enough data to make an informed call about this potentially being linked to malign action. At best, all we can do is observe that things start blowing up in the homeland when certain international tensions come to fruition. It is overwhelmingly likely that various "shadow warfare" tactics would be used by a variety of malign actors within the United States at this present time, but as with the Valero fire it will be hard to attribute these incidents to malign action beyond reasonable doubt. In any case, these incidents are a sharp reminder to stay vigilant even if we don't know exactly what happened. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z March 23, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: PRESIDENT TRUMP ISSUES 48 HOUR ULTIMATUM FOR IRAN TO OPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, BEFORE CHANGING STANCE AND IMPLEMENTING 5 DAY CEASEFIRE. MAJOR AVIATION INCIDENT REPORTED AT LAGUARDIA. MULTIPLE IEDS DISCOVERED IN MARYLAND PARK.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: Over the weekend the situation deteriorated significantly, with the war heating up on many fronts. President Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran for them to open the Strait of Hormuz, or else the United States will destroy their civilian power plants. This morning, President Trump stated that "productive conversations" had been conducted with Iranian officials, and that the US has emplaced a 5-day halt on the bombing campaign throughout Iran. Indian Ocean: Statements made by NATO officials have refuted the claims made by US officials regarding the alleged Iranian missile attack on Diego Garcia. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that they "cannot confirm" various details of the strike, or that the missiles were fired by Iran. This statement came two days after the Iranians denied responsibility for the attack, stating that they did not launch any missiles at Diego Garcia. Analyst Comment: Whatever the truth is, it can't be independently confirmed due to the nature of the targeting effort occurring in space, outside with realm of eyewitnesses. Either way, it must be noted for posterity that NATO has expressed uncertainty regarding what missile it might have been, and the Iranians are denying that it was them. Israel: As the war continues, Iranian forces conducted two major retaliatory strikes over the weekend. The first ballistic missile attack occurred a few miles from the Israeli Dimona nuclear facility, with the warhead landing in a heavily urbanized area near where Israeli scientists are known to live. Separately, another Iranian missile targeted the city of Arad, which resulted in a mass casualty event. Analyst Comment: The Dimona strike was significant as the munition itself appeared to have demonstrated some means of maneuverability in the terminal stages of it's flight, which allowed the warhead to evade missile defenses. If this was intentional, this is more evidence that the Iranians are shifting to their better missiles, which have more capability. Additionally, the response to these strikes signals a shift in Israeli perspective on the war. Previously, Israel has cracked down hard on all media regarding successful Iranian strikes, with footage and geolocation of any successful impacts being extremely hard to come by. With these strikes however, the media lockdown has been lifted, with PM Netanyahu himself visited both sites and conducting media briefings at the impact craters. The reasons for this change of policy are anyone's guess, but it is significant enough to be aware of. United Kingdom: Over the weekend an arson attack was reported at a Synagogue in Golder's Green, which involved unknown assailants setting multiple private ambulances on fire in the parking area adjacent to the facility. Analyst Comment: These ambulances were being parked at the Synagogue, but they actually belong to Hatzola Northwest, a private ambulance service for the local area. In any case, video surveillance of Heighfield Road is substantial and there are no less than eight high-resolution security cameras which would have caught the attackers setting these ambulances on fire, so they'll probably be caught very soon. -HomeFront- Maryland: Sunday afternoon, local authorities responded to reports of multiple suspicious packages within Fort Washington Park. U.S. Park Police responded to the reports, which resulted in the discovery of 5x Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) of pipe-bomb-type construction. The park was closed as the Prince George County Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) team rendered the devices safe. No word yet on who placed the devices or if they were viable explosives. New York: Last night a major incident was reported at LaGuardia Airport after Air Canada 8646 collided with a firetruck that was crossing the runway as the plane was landing. Both the pilot and copilot were killed during the impact, and several others were severely injured. The crew of the firetruck that was hit survived the impact with broken bones. LaGuardia remains closed while the debris is investigated and recovered. Analyst Comment: The investigation will take some time to confirm, but as with all aviation mishaps this disaster appears to be a result of multiple factors. The fire truck (Truck 1) was responding to reports of a strange odor onboard another aircraft (United 2384), so the night was already incredibly busy. In the fray of the active emergency declaration underway, ATC gave permission for the firetruck to across an active runway, seeming to forget about the Air Canada flight that had just touched down, which resulted in the aircraft colliding with the firetruck on the runway. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Messaging regarding the war in Iran has become so variable, it's challenging to determine what is actually happening. Simply put, Trump's post on social media sounds a lot like searching for an offramp in the manner of conceding to a ceasefire, without saying the word "ceasefire". Right now, it's certainly possible that the US has quietly agreed to an informal ceasefire, based on the terms of Iran allowing vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for a 5-day cessation of American bombing. On the other side, Iranian state media claims that Trump's statement is false, and that they withdrew from talks entirely after he threatened to bomb their civilian power plants. Specifically, Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that not only are talks not being conducted, but they aren't even speaking to the US indirectly through intermediaries. Otherwise, actions speak louder than words. And on that front strategic movement involving military cargo flights has increased over the past few days, with the United States stepping up logistical efforts to move cargo into the Middle East. The US is moving stuff into the region at breakneck pace, and right now this looks like a deliberate staging of resources for a major offensive. While purely speculative, it is possible that what is being touted as a gracious halt to bombing is actually the result of a shortage of munitions, which need to be topped up before another major offensive action, so at the moment the most likely theory regarding this "quasi-ceasefire" is that this is an attempt to pump the brakes on the rapidly spiraling economic situation, while at the same time rearming and refitting. For context, this 5-day halt to bombing expires on Friday...just after markets close for the weekend. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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This week's intel update is out!

//The Wire//2300Z March 17, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: ATTACKS CONTINUE IN BAGHDAD AS FPV DRONES BEGIN MORE FREQUENT USE IN IRAQ. IED DISCOVERED AT MACDILL AIR FORCE BASE IN FLORIDA. COUNTERTERRORISM CENTER DIRECTOR RESIGNS IN PROTEST OF WAR.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Persian Gulf: Over the past few days, conflict within Baghdad has become more significant, as Iranian-backed militia groups concentrate attacks on the Green Zone. Last night the Al-Rashid Hotel was hit by an Iranian drone, and another FPV drone incident was reported as the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) continue conducting reconnaissance of the American Embassy compound, which usually results in drone attacks later on that night. These attacks have continued to be a daily occurrence, with sensitive sites at the Embassy compound being struck over the past few days. -HomeFront- Florida: Yesterday one of the Entry Control Points (ECPs) at MacDill Air Force Base was shut down due to a suspicious package being discovered at the Visitor's Center. After some time, EOD personnel cleared the device, and operations returned to normal. Analyst Comment: Officially, no comment has been made on this incident beyond the brief lockdown. As suspicious package incidents are extremely common nowadays, usually nothing comes of it. However in this case, a photo of the suspicious package circulated on social media, which indicates that this was a legitimate IED and not just a lost bag. Whether or not it was actually a viable device is anyone's guess, but the photo of the alleged device indicates that the fuze was lit, only sputtering out on it's own. So clearly somebody tried to blow something up, regardless of the failure to detonate. As a result, this is another important reminder of the threats that remain constant throughout American society, as the war in the Middle East inflames tensions at home. Washington D.C. - This morning the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, resigned from his position in protest of the continuing war in Iran, stating that he "cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby." -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: While all resignations in protest will sharply divide sentiment for and against, many arguments are being undertaken as people speak without thinking first. The fiery resignation letter is now functionally a Rorschach Test...people who make policy decisions will see what they want to see in it, and divide themselves accordingly. Disparaging comments attacking one's character that come out only after a public opinion is expressed are not the best indicator for what is really going on behind the scenes, but nevertheless that's exactly what ends up happening among those who are making decisions regarding the war. What is undeniable is that such a high-profile resignation right now is extremely important, and might be an indicator of future events. Regardless of the politics in play, (and taking personal feelings out of the situation entirely), when one of the main players in the US Intelligence Community resigns right now, at this present time, this is probably an indicator of far more serious developments coming down the pipeline. Senior resignations of this nature in any nation are quite rare, and hard-hitting resignation letters are rarer still. Nobody resigns because they think the war will be over anytime soon, and Kent (being the second-highest-ranking individual in the Intelligence Community) would have had the access to know information pertaining to future events that have not been made public. Due to this context, this could be an early indicator of what decisions have quietly been made behind closed doors, which have not yet come to fruition. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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This week's intel update is out 👍 Today we dive into the threats at home and overseas, and examine how the war is continuing to expand. International power structures are changing, the drones keep flying, and the American people are not exactly being told the truth about this war. All of which indicates a spicy springtime is on the horizon.

//The Wire//2300Z March 13, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TERROR ATTACKS CONTINUE IN THE AMERICAN HOMELAND. WAR CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. AMERICAN AIRCRAFT CRASHES IN IRAQ, NO SURVIVORS REPORTED.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Persian Gulf: Last night CENTCOM reported the loss of one KC-135 Stratotanker, which crashed in western Iraq. Rescue operations were conducted immediately, however all six crew members have been confirmed deceased. The incident occurred as a result of a mid-air collision, which involved another KC-135 aircraft that was also damaged. Strait of Hormuz: This morning another commercial vessel was struck while attempting to transit the Strait, which resulted in catastrophic damage to the vessel. The crew abandoned ship, and several crew members remain missing. Turkey: Another ballistic missile was intercepted overnight, as Iranian forces continue to target Incirlik Airbase. This is the third such interception since the war began. UAE: Overnight drone attacks continued to strike Dubai, with the International Financial Center being struck by a Shahed drone yesterday evening. Analyst Comment: Today was also the third day in a row that the UAE has changed their reporting criteria. Social media reports no longer list the total number of drones that impact within their country, with the daily rollup reports instead stating the number of drones and missiles that were "dealt with". Due to the video confirmation of drones impacting within Dubai overnight, these reports are now openly misleading, as the number of successful Iranian strikes remains unreported. -HomeFront- Michigan: Yesterday afternoon a vehicle ramming and small arms attack was reported at Temple Israel, one of the largest synagogues in Michigan. The attack began as a vehicle ramming attack targeting the main entrance to the facility. After the suspect breached the entrance, he exited the vehicle and was engaged by security personnel on site, who neutralized the attacker. Initial reports claim that the suspect also had explosives inside his vehicle, however authorities have not confirmed this yet as the vehicle caught fire during the incident and burned down a substantial portion of the structure, including the suspect. No one but the attacker was killed during the attack. Analyst Comment: The suspect in this case has been identified as Ayman Mohamad Ghazali, a naturalized US Citizen originally from Lebanon. Some sources claim that he conducted the attack due to to his family being killed in an Israeli airstrike on a refugee camp in Beirut yesterday, however these claims cannot be independently verified at this time. Either way, the suspect attacked the 12,000-member synagogue on a Thursday afternoon when almost no one was at the facility, which is an indicator that the terrorist did not have much time to plan the attack. More information is expected later on, as forensic analysis of the remains and vehicle debris is conducted. Virginia: Yesterday a mass shooting was reported at Old Dominion University after a terrorist entered a classroom and began targeting students. Local authorities state that a lone gunman entered an ROTC classroom at ODU shortly before 11:00am yesterday morning, first shooting the instructor, who has been identified as LTC Brandon Shah. Immediately after the first shots were fired, the cadets in the classroom mounted a counterattack, using violence of action to subdue the attacker. At some point during the attack one cadet produced a pocket knife which was subsequently utilized in stabbing the attacker to death. The assailant was found dead by police at the scene after being stabbed 22x times. Analyst Comment: The suspect in this case has been identified as Mohamad Bailor Jalloh, a naturalized US citizen from Sierra Leone and former National Guard soldier who had previously been convicted of attempting to carry out a terrorist attack. In 2016, Jalloh was arrested after attempting to procure firearms with the intent to carry out a Fort Hood-style mass shooting, which resulted in him being imprisoned in 2017 before he was released in 2024. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, local pro-Iranian militia groups such as the infamous Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) have claimed credit for downing the KC-135 over western Iraq last night. However, it's extremely unlikely that the aircraft was shot down based on the damage that was sustained by the other KC-135 involved in the incident. The damaged tail section of the surviving aircraft contained no fragmentation or blast damage indicative of a missile strike, which would be expected in the event of combat damage. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2300Z March 11, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MULTIPLE SHIPS TARGETED BY IRANIANS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. IRANIAN DRONE STRIKES REPORTED IN OMAN. POSSIBLE TERROR ATTACK OCCURS IN SWITZERLAND.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: Drone attacks throughout the Persian Gulf continue as before, with significant strikes being reported at the port city of Salalah in Oman this morning. Several drones targeted the oil storage tanks near the port, which have been burning throughout the day. Strait of Hormuz: This morning three merchant vessels were struck by Iranian munitions in the vicinity of the waterway. Two vessels were struck off the coast of Dubai and Ras al Khaymah, one of which was a containership that sustained unspecified damage. To the northeast, another vessel (the M/V MAYUREE NAREE) was struck while attempting to transit the Strait, which caused a fire that has since been extinguished. The crew of this vessel has reportedly abandoned ship in the hours after the strike, and three crew members remain missing. Analyst Comment: In addition to the threats posed by drones and missiles, concerns are growing regarding the possibility that the Strait may have been mined. President Trump indicated that the Iranians may have attempted to target vessels with naval mines over the past few days, however statements by American officials so far have have been inconclusive as to whether or not any mines have actually been laid. Due to this uncertainty, it would be wise for shipping companies to assume that at least some asymmetric naval capability exists within the Iranian Navy. Switzerland: Yesterday evening an attack was reported onboard a city bus in the town of Kerzers. One assailant set himself on fire while sitting on the bus, killing 6x people during the attack and wounding 5x others. Analyst Comment: So far, very little information has been released regarding this attack. The assailant has not been identified, and it may take some time for any potential motive to emerge. Due to the mass casualties that were caused by this incident, this incident should be considered a terror attack until more information comes to light. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - This morning a vehicle ramming incident was reported at the White House, which involved an SUV attempting to ram through the barricades at the corner of Connecticut and H Street. No injuries were reported and the driver was arrested at the scene. No word yet on what caused the incident, or if this was a deliberate attack. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Indications and warnings are mounting that missile defenses throughout the Middle East may be dwindling. Over the past few days, civilian aircraft have been repositioned from airports around the region, and several airlines have canceled flights throughout the region, such as KLM which has halted flights to Dubai until March 28th. As airspace opens up between waves of drone attacks, many commercial and private aircraft owners are taking the opportunity to get their airframes out of harms way. As a result of these developments, many locals believe this an indicator of interceptor missiles running dry, and thus what seemed like a fairly tepid war (by comparison) might suddenly get more active if the interceptions of drones become less common. This is obviously pure speculation based on an unknown factor; the true number of air defenses any nation has is a closely guarded secret. The same theory applies around the region, from Israel to Kuwait, with nearly all nations involved heavily suppressing any social media posts referencing successful Iranian targeting efforts. Nevertheless, the truth eventually gets out and what can be observed is that the drones still fly and interceptions are not always successful. And that success rate may be decreasing, if the data provided is accurate. Using the UAE as an example, it is true that drone attacks targeting the nation have decreased over the past two days. From the start of the war, Dubai has fended off about a hundred drones and roughly a dozen ballistic missiles each day. Over the past couple of days, the total number of reported drone attacks have dwindled to about one-third of what has been normal since the start of the war. However, the number of successful interceptions have dwindled too: Of the 35x drones detected yesterday, only 26x were intercepted...with 9x drones impacting within the country. Whether or not they hit their intended targets is unknown, however this many drones making it through defenses on D+11 is substantially important. This also confirms that Iranian forces maintain enough operational effectiveness to conduct Over-the-Horizon targeting, causing just enough trouble to make the fight costly in the long run. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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This week's intel update is out 👍

//The Wire//2300Z March 4, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: GULF WAR CONTINUES AS ALLIED RADAR INSTALLATIONS TARGETED BY IRANIAN FORCES. US NAVY SINKS IRANIAN FRIGATE OFF COAST OF SRI LANKA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: The large-scale bombing of targets within Iran continues, with hundreds of bombs being dropped day and night. Around the region, overnight satellite imagery confirmed that Iranian forces have successfully struck multiple American Air Defense installations. Concerning American battle damage, the following radar arrays have been damaged or destroyed since the conflict began. Qatar: A/N FPS-132 Block 5 array - Hit, unknown damage. Kuwait: 3x unknown radomes destroyed. Bahrain: 2x AN/GSC-52B radomes destroyed. UAE: THAAD battery at Al-Ruwais confirmed struck, damage unknown. Saudi Arabia: A/N TPY-2 radar site (used with the THAAD system) struck at Prince Sultan Airbase. Jordan: THAAD battery at Muwaffaq Salti Airbase possibly struck, unknown damage. Analyst Comment: These radar arrays are not tiny fire-control systems mounted on a HMMWV, these are major strategic assets for air defense throughout the hemisphere, not just the Middle East. The FPS-132 alone costs over a billion dollars and there are only six of these sites in the entire world. Similarly, there are only nine THAAD batteries in existence globally, and the Iranians just hit one (possibly two) of them with a munition that cost about $30k each. Strait of Hormuz: The war on the high seas continues as multiple commercial vessels have been struck by drones overnight. The UK Maritime Trade Operations center has reported a total of four commercial vessels being hit with unknown munitions over the past 24 hours, sustaining unknown damage. Two container ships, a BCC, and a tanker vessel were all hit or targeted by unknown munitions. Analyst Comment: Merchant traffic within the Strait is mostly at a standstill, as nobody wants to run the the gauntlet and risk hundreds of millions of dollars if something goes wrong. At this present time, drone and missile attacks are effective enough to prevent any large merchant vessel from transiting the waterway. Turkey: This morning the Turkish Defense Ministry stated that an Iranian ballistic missile was shot down in their nation. The missile was shot down by a US Navy vessel in the Eastern med, and the debris landed near the town of Dörtyol in the southeastern region of the country. Lebanon: The Israeli ground invasion continues, with the IDF ordering the evacuation of Lebanese citizens to north of the Litani River. Roughly 15% of the land mass of Lebanon has been ordered to evacuate by Israel, as the IDF continues pushing north. Indian Ocean: This morning the US Navy torpedoed an Iranian frigate off the coast of Sri Lanka. The IRIS *DENA* was sunk by an American submarine with the crew abandoning ship overnight. The Sri Lankan Navy has conducted rescue operations of about 30 survivors, with about half of the crew remaining missing. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Regarding the evacuations of Americans from the Middle East, so far the situation is complicated. The US State Department has provided emergency phone numbers for Americans stranded overseas to call, but reports are mixed regarding Americans actually being evacuated. Commercial flights remain sporadic, and most Americans stranded in the region are being told to sit tight until flights are available. Airspace closures remain throughout the entire region, and most airlines are attempting to fly out whenever they can. Dubai is the world's busiest airport, and so far it's been averaging a few dozen flights in and out each day, when previously the average was over a thousand flights per day. The smaller airport in Muscat, Oman is the next-closest hub from which evacuations are occurring, however it's nearly all private aircraft at this point since all commercial options have been booked. Considering the damage that has likely been done to American radar sites around the region, if it is true that Early Warning capabilities have been degraded as a result of Iranian strikes, more serious targeting efforts could continue over the next few days. Although, the systems that have been hit are mostly for high-altitude ballistic missile threats, and not the smaller drones that are threatening the Gulf States most effectively at the moment. This is the fundamental nature of this war: Every missile interception has to succeed every single time, but the Iranians only have to be successful once to cause enough uncertainty both with maritime shipping and civil aviation, to cause problems. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2000Z March 3, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERSIAN GULF. SAUDI FORCES DEPLOY TO QUELL RIOTS IN BAHRAIN. MAJOR OIL FACILITIES SHUT DOWN THROUGHOUT MIDDLE EAST DUE TO STRIKES. ISRAEL LAUNCHES GROUND INVASION OF LEBANON.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: The Gulf War continues as Iranian forces begin shifting to strategic targets. Most of the drone/missile attacks overnight targeted oil production facilities, such as the Fujairah Industrial Zone in the UAE, which has been taken offline. Otherwise, the attacks on American installations continue, with the American Embassy in Riyadh being hit multiple times by drones overnight. Bahrain: Significant riots have broken out around the country, as the majority-Shia population begins expressing dissent with the Sunni government, and more specifically the American presence within the nation. Saudi Forces crossed the bridge this morning with anti-riot forces to help quell the more kinetic protests, which have become intense over the past 24 hours. Analyst Comment: Politics in Bahrain were complicated before the war, as the population is mostly Shia (and aligned with the Ayatollah), but the country is ruled by a Kingdom that is Sunni. Even before the shooting started the situation was tenuous at best, and the assassination of the Ayatollah might have been the spark needed to kick off a civil conflict within the island nation. This is a complicating factor for the United States, as Bahrain has long served as a major Center of Gravity for American combat power in the region. Now that some locals are getting rowdy (and are also aligned with Iran), this will make things more difficult. Lebanon: This morning Israeli forces launched a ground invasion in the south, opening up another front so as to seize terrain along the border. Lebanese Army forces have withdrawn from the border as Israeli units advance. Analyst Comment: It is not clear as to if this is a legitimate, full-scale ground invasion, or limited border incursions that Israel is known to do throughout southern Lebanon. So far, Israeli forces haven't crossed their limit of advance set during the height of the conflict two years ago. United Kingdom: A stabbing attack was reported in Edinburgh, which resulted in a standoff lasting several hours yesterday afternoon. One unidentified assailant began stabbing people an apartment building, which resulted in two people being wounded. After the attack, the suspect fled into the apartment building, which resulted in a standoff situation that lasted seven hours. Eventually, police were able to breach the building and detain the suspect. Separately, in Birmingham a different stabbing attack was captured on film this morning, which involved an assailant stabbing a man on the street outside a Catholic school in Alum Rock. This attacker was arrested at the scene, and very few details remain public regarding his identity. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Yesterday afternoon the US State Department published the list of nations that Americans should evacuate from, which includes the entire Middle East. The "depart now" order has been issued for the nations of: Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, West Bank, Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, the UAE, and Yemen. However, the US State Department has stated that Americans are on their own regarding evacuations. Even though the start of this combat operation was easily predicted down to the exact day (and nearly the exact hour) that it began, the United States somehow believes that they needed to maintain the element of surprise. The State Department believed that if they made attempts to evacuate the Middle East before the attack, the world would know that the war was imminent. This is also why many American bases appear to not be fortified as much as they could have been. In many cases, the Pentagon appears to not understand that their operation was very observable to the public, and their attempts to maintain the secrecy that they thought they had, resulted in little preparation in some areas. False sense of operational security aside, what this means at the moment is logistical challenges because everyone is having to sit tight for the moment until the war calms down enough to make evacuation flights reliable. A handful of flights have been able to make it in and out of Dubai, despite heavy GPS jamming efforts in the region. The governments of Britain and Poland are tentatively looking to start militarily-organized evacuation flights throughout the region over the next few days, however details are not yet solidified regarding these efforts. Italy has already conducted the military evacuation of some of their citizens from the region, who arrived back in Italy this morning. So far, the official policy of the US State Department is that US Citizens are on their own, and not a single evacuation flight of Americans has yet taken place to evacuate American citizens from the region. Right now, it might not seem like much, but time is in fact running out. Every single western-aligned Arab nation in the region is running out of interceptor missiles, with some nations reporting that they have burned through many years worth of their supply in just the past two days. Just this morning alone, the UAE blew through 172 interceptor missiles to take out 172 Iranian munitions that would have otherwise impacted targets inside their country. While it is unconfirmed hearsay at the moment, the rumor throughout the region is that the US has declined to restock these supplies, as most stockpiles of interceptor missiles have been allocated for Israel. As a result, this war is now a marathon to see who has more missiles, the Iranians or the other Persian Gulf states. At the moment, hundreds of drones and missiles are being intercepted out over the Gulf every day...the viral videos of drones slamming into targets on land are merely the munitions that have made it through missile defenses, which is a drop in the bucket compared to the true number of drones and missiles that are being launched. This has lead many to the false assumption that this war will fade away within a few days, because they can't visually see the interceptions that are taking place out over the water. However, it's now Day Four of this conflict, and the drone attacks have remained constant. When/if missile interceptors dwindle, these munitions will have nothing stopping them from reaching their targets. Last night, President Trump stated that American stockpiles of munitions are at adequate levels, and that "Wars can be fought 'forever'" at current stockpile levels of medium-grade munitions. Despite the rather unfortunate choice of vocabulary in this post, the cold hard truth is that the US has not been supplying the Arab nations that are now getting hit, with the munitions necessary for their defense, or more importantly, the defense of American assets (and citizens) in the region. This will complicate the self-evacuation of Americans over the next few weeks, in addition to sharply increasing the potential for more widespread drone strikes over the next few days. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//1800Z March 2, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: TERROR ATTACK STRIKES TEXAS. GULF WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS IRANIAN FORCES STRIKE AMERICAN BASES AND OIL FIELDS. MULTIPLE AMERICAN AIRCRAFT SHOT DOWN IN FRIENDLY FIRE INCIDENTS. QATAR SHOOTS DOWN TWO IRANIAN FIGHTERS OVER PERSIAN GULF.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: The Gulf War continues to expand, with nearly every nation throughout the region being involved as airstrikes and drone/missile attacks remain regular around the clock. Kuwait: This morning, three separate American F-15E's were shot down due to alleged friendly fire incidents after allegedly being engaged by Kuwaiti air defense systems. All six pilots and weapons officers ejected and were rescued from the desert by Kuwaiti forces. Analyst Comment: This situation was rather dicey as local Kuwaitis on the ground initially thought that the Americans parachuting down were Iranians. This is possibly due to the American parachutes from the ACES II ejection seats being in the standard colors of Orange, White, and Green (which has been a standard for a long time). Unfortunately, this also looks very similar to the colors of the Iranian flag as it's descending on a residential neighborhood. As a result, several Kuwaitis responded to the crash site with weapons drawn, until it became clear that they were Americans. After the Americans were identified, they were protected and rendered aid until they were recovered safely back to American lines. Saudi Arabia: Most of the targeting efforts by the Iranians have focused on hitting oil infrastructure. This morning, the Ras Tanura refinery was been shut down completely following Iranian drone strikes, which halts roughly 16% of Saudi Arabia's total oil production capacity. Qatar: All Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) production has been halted due to Iranian strikes, and the airport in Doha remains closed at the moment. This morning Qatari forces downed two Iranian Su-24 fighters which were sortied to conduct targeting within their nation. Analyst Comment: If this report is accurate, this would be the first indication that the Iranians still maintain some limited air combat power, even though the runways at most of their airports have been cratered. UAE: In the Emirates, Iranian forces have been hitting Dubai and Abu Dhabi hard over the past two days. Power plants, oil terminals, and other energy infrastructure have been targeted, along with more military targets. The French Naval Base in Abu Dhabi was hit by Iranian munitions, and the fires have been burning overnight. Bahrain: The semi-former headquarters of the US Navy's 5th Fleet has been heavily damaged, with a significant portion of the base being completely destroyed. This morning, Iranian forces struck an American strategic oil tanker, the M/T *STENA IMPERATIVE*, as she was sitting in port. Cyprus: The British Airbase at Akrotiri Airport has been targeted by Iranian missiles/drones several times over the past two days, with heavy smoke being reported at the installation sporadically yesterday afternoon. Israel: Substantial targeting efforts continue by the Iranians, with many ballistic missile strikes being carried out overnight. Rocket attacks by Hezbollah cells in Lebanon continue, with the IDF conducting several airstrikes in downtown Beirut in response yesterday evening. Regarding civilian infrastructure in the Middle East, most major airports throughout the entire region are closed for flights, most notably Kuwait International, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Bahrain. Right now, the main logistical hub for citizens fleeing the region is Riyadh, however the Saudis stated overnight that King Khalid International Airport was targeted by Iran. The ballistic missiles were successfully intercepted, but the window for evacuations throughout much of the region is probably closed for a while. Some airlines in Dubai are attempting to re-commence evacuation flights this evening, pending any attacks on the airport. Concerning American casualties so far, four American service members have been killed as a result of Iranian strikes throughout the region. Pakistan: Attacks at the US Consulate in Karachi have escalated as rioters have began engaging the Marines inside the compound with small arms. Pakistanis have taken pot-shots from pistols at the Consulate throughout the day, and the Marine Security Detachment has been able to hold the compound so far. -HomeFront- Texas: Saturday night, a terror attack was reported at a bar in Austin, which resulted in a mass casualty event. One gunman entered Buford's Bar on 6th street, and began shooting the patrons inside, before being killed during the attack. The suspect has been identified as Ndiaga Diagne, a naturalized US citizen originally from Senegal. Concerning casualties, two fatalities have been reported, along with 14x wounded as a result of the attack. Analyst Comment: Right now most assumptions regarding this attack jump to the conclusion that this individual was one of the infamous Iranian "sleeper cell" agents that has been "activated" in response to events in the Middle East. At this moment, the evidence points to this being a lone-wolf attack as the suspect was wearing a pro-Islam sweatshirt during the attack, and underneath he was also wearing a shirt portraying the flag of Iran. Beyond these basic details, it will be crucial for the investigation to determine whether this guy was a random lone-wolf, or if there was some prior communication/coordination regarding this attack. In short, we don't know if he was communicating with Iranians or not, but he very likely conducted the attack due to events in the Middle East. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Right now, there is a lot of confusion pertaining to the messaging by American officials regarding this war. On the one hand, the United States has stated frequently that most Iranian military infrastructure has been decimated, but on the other hand everyone can see the drones hitting targets rather effectively, so what gives? Per long-standing doctrine, Iranian military leadership has substantially expanded on the idea of delegating authority to lower and lower levels of command, so as to ensure effective combat operations in the event that decapitation strikes took out most of their senior leadership. The Iranian's have been planning for this eventuality for some time, and thus their military infrastructure can be described in a single word: Redundancy. It is this theory that is being proven somewhat correct right now, as Iranian forces have been able to not just continue strikes, but launch increasingly more significant missile barrages throughout the Middle East...after most of their military leadership has been killed. As a result, even the effective decapitation strikes during the initial phases of the war, while a great success, were still not enough to stop the effectiveness of the command and control efforts at lower levels. Even going back to the 1980's Iran has been the textbook example of how cutting off the head of the snake, won't result in the body giving up the fight as quickly as the United States would hope. How long the Iranians can keep this up, is the 64-million-dollar question, but for now, killing the entire upper echelon of Iranian military leadership won't do much to reduce combat effectiveness in the short term. The missiles and drones that continue to fly by the minute are evidence of this doctrine, which continue to seriously threaten both civilian and military infrastructure throughout the region. All of this is supported by recent comments made by President Trump, confirming that this operation could take up to a month. Over 900x sorties have been conducted by US forces so far, and the level-bombers which have been forward deployed probably haven't even begun the large-scale bombings yet. As with all military operations, time will tell how it goes, and in this case the enduring question is how much damage Iran can do, as their scorched-earth campaign continues throughout the region. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//1500Z March 1, 2026// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST. US CONSULATE UNDER ATTACK IN KARACHI, 9X RIOTERS KILLED AS US MARINES DEFEND THE COMPOUND. AYATOLLAH CONFIRMED DEAD FOLLOWING AIRSTRIKE. MISSILE AND DRONE STRIKES CONTINUE AROUND THE REGION.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: Yesterday afternoon, President Trump confirmed the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, who was killed in an airstrike in Tehran. Most of his senior advisors were also killed in the same engagement. On the maritime front, this morning one commercial tanker vessel was struck by an Iranian drone, with the crew of the M/T *SKYLIGHT* abandoning ship after their vessel was hit in the Strait of Hormuz. A few hours ago a second tanker was reportedly struck in the Strait, with the M/T *MKD VYOM* being struck also attempting to transit the waterway this morning. Analyst Comment: Of note, the *SKYLIGHT* does not appear to have been attempting to transit the Strait and has likely been anchored in the same place for a few years. This vessel was actually serving the Iranian oil industry, and was on the US sanctions list, so the Iranians appear to have targeted one of their own ships, possibly so that the Americans couldn't make use of it. Significant strikes have been reported at the Jebel Ali petroleum terminals in Dubai, and satellite imagery of Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait has confirmed that the base fuel point was hit, with the fuel bladders/blivets at this location burning overnight. All total, drone and missile attacks have remained constant throughout the day and night, with the various Interior and Defense Ministries of the following nations providing data on how many interceptions have been conducted overnight: Qatar: 65 ballistic missiles and 12 drones intercepted. Bahrain: 45 missiles and 9 drones intercepted. Jordan: 49 missiles and drones (combined figure), 13 of which were intercepted. Israel: Over 200 missiles and drones intercepted U.A.E. - 137 missiles and 209 drones detected, 195 of which were intercepted successfully. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia have acknowledged strikes targeting their countries, however neither have confirmed how many drones/missiles have been intercepted. Analyst Comment: Note that these figures only encapsulate the munitions that were successfully intercepted and shot down; most countries don't want to publish the data of how many drones actually made it through their defenses, so the figure for how many strikes have been conducted so far is hard to discern. This time around all belligerents are exercising good operational security, so details of strikes are often hard to find via social media. This is most sharply demonstrated in Israel, where hundreds of strikes are occurring, but difficult to pinpoint on a map due to the exact location of strikes rarely being reported. Pakistan: Overnight, riots broke out at the US Consulate General in Karachi, which rapidly transitioned into an attempt to breach the American compound. After some time, rioters breached the outer security cordon, and US Marines which had taken up defensive positions inside the facility opened fire on the intruders before they could breach the secondary line of security around the perimeter. Analyst Comment: Details are extremely hard to verify, however local sources claim that a total of 9x Pakistani rioters were killed during the engagements so far, and the Marines have successfully held the Key Terrain around the Consulate for the past few hours. However tensions are rising, and if the videos of the riots are any indication, Pakistan is not up to the task of defending the American compound, as rioters were allowed to breach, destroy, and set the outer cordon of the American diplomatic post on fire, with no Pakistani security anywhere to be seen. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Around the United States, various efforts are underway to enhance the security posture of various locations and entities. In Texas, Governor Greg Abbott has activated service members to take part in Operation FURY SHIELD, a defensive operation to strengthen security at critical infrastructure sites around the state, in the event that retaliatory efforts via lone-wolf actors attempt to conduct attacks within the homeland. Similarly, the NYPD in New York is increasing patrols throughout the city, and several military bases around the United States remain at an elevated security posture. Right now these efforts are probably being conducted out of an abundance of caution, however it does confirm that at least someone is thinking about the potential for events overseas, to impact the homeland in the form of terrorism. This has, of course, been a concern for decades, however based on the widening war in the Middle East, it would be wise to remain vigilant and situationally aware for the next few weeks, as the conflict continues to inflame tensions here at home. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//1300Z February 28, 2026// //PRIORITY// //BLUF: WAR BEGINS WITH IRAN.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: This morning the war began as American and Israeli forces conducted pre-emptive strikes throughout Iran. Major bombings have been reported throughout most major cities around the county, with the heaviest concentrations of bombings taking place in Tehran. In response, Iranian forces have conducted missile strikes targeting American bases in Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, the UAE, and several other locations. Missile impacts have been observed at Ali Al Salem Airbase in Kuwait, Al Udeid Airbase in Qatar, Al Dhafra Airbase in the UAE, Muwaffaq Airbase in Jordan, and at the headquarters of 5th Fleet in Manama, Bahrain. Missile impacts were also reported in Israel, mostly in the port city of Haifa at the moment. In Iraq, the Kataib Hezbollah al-Nujaba group announced that they will begin insurgent attacks on American forces throughout the region, to include the targeting of American civilians working at American-run oil facilities throughout Iraq. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: President Trump posted an 8-minute video to his Truth Social page, explaining the rationale for the war. In the video, President Trump ordered all Iranian forces to lay down their arms and surrender, while urging all Iranian civilians to stay in their homes while the bombings are conducted. President Trump then urged civilians to rise up and overthrown their government. Beyond these basic details, not much else is known regarding the overall end-goal of this war, however bombings have continued constantly throughout the past few hours. President Trump is expected to conduct another address to the nation later this morning. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//1500Z February 26, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: POSSIBLE CHEMICAL WEAPONS FACILITY DISCOVERED AT PRIVATE RESIDENCE IN CALIFORNIA. TALKS IN GENEVA CONTINUE AS WAR INCHES CLOSER IN MIDDLE EAST. INVESTIGATION CONTINUES INTO CUBAN BOAT INCIDENT.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: This morning the USS *FORD* CSG departed port Souda Bay, bound for operational patrols in the Eastern Med. The drawdown of forces at Al-Udeid continues as well, with only a handful of aircraft remaining at this installation. In Geneva, diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iranian representatives have continued, with reports not really confirming how the talks are going just yet. Analyst Comment: In addition to American aircraft leaving their transponders on for the majority of their flights, China has dutifully been using their own satellite imagery networks to show the world where American forces are being deployed to. This imagery indicates that forces continue staging at bases throughout the region, including F-16's being forward-deployed to Diego Garcia. -HomeFront- California: A possible chemical weapons production facility has been located at a private residence in Irvine. Police responded to a call from a concerned landlord, who had located suspicious items inside a residence just off Irvine Blvd. Local police responded to the residence, and after a few hours, the FBI was on scene investigating what appeared to be a nerve agent that was discovered at the site. Analyst Comment: This incident initially took place some time ago, however none of the inhabitants of this extremely high-income gated community reported the men-in-white-suits investigating a potential weapons lab in their neighborhood, until prompted by journalists who were first alerted to the scene by the Irvine Police Department's post on the matter last night. Since this neighborhood has controlled access, the local news crew had to fly a helicopter over the scene, which revealed the CBNRE teams that are still on the scene processing evidence. Geolocation of this static image (via the solar panels on the roof and the landscaping arrangement) confirms the address as being 77 Cartwheel Street. Orange County property records indicate that this residence is owned by Yu-Ting Huang and Allen Lee. A cursory search of business affiliations in California confirms that both individuals are the CFO and CEO (respectively) of Genetex Inc, a major biotechnology business which allegedly provides reagents for medical testing. Overall, details are very sketchy at the moment, however local media stations have interviewed some of the neighbors who have been willing to talk. According to these reports, various teams of federal agents have been observed on site, to include military service members wearing insignia of a Weapons of Mass Destruction Civil Support Team. Considering the link to Genetex, so far this incident is nearly identical to other Chinese-linked biolabs, such as the facilities in Reedley, California and in Las Vegas, Nevada. Both of these facilities involved super-sketchy businesses which were supposed to be making test kits or reagents for medical testing, however in reality this was merely a front to conceal the manufacture of biological weapons. Regarding the site in Irvine, there is no link readily identifiable to the other sites just yet, beyond the circumstances of the operations being nearly identical. Of note, Genetex has links to Taiwan, not China, however more information is needed to determine exactly what these links are and exactly which individuals were operating the site. More investigation will be needed to discern what was really taking place at this facility, but as of right now, it would be prudent to categorize this as a potential nerve agent production facility, just in case. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Regarding yesterday's Cuban escapade, the situation remains just as clear as before, which is to say not much. Cuban forces are attempting to frame the incident as a Bay of Pigs Part Two, and have stated that the 10x people onboard the vessel were attempting to invade their country. The nationalities of the people onboard the vessel are equally a mystery. Some reports state that they were Americans, while other reports state that they were Cubans who had originally fled the nation, only to return later on. Cuban authorities have identified most of the people they have detained, and all of the names are of Cuban origin, however discerning exact nationality is difficult. For context, Cubans who escape the nation have been known to steal boats in Miami, and pilot those boats back to Cuba either to help others escape, or to run drugs back and forth. Coyotes also prefer to extort Cubans who pay to smuggle themselves into the United States, in a similar manner as was common at the southern US border. On the other hand, Cuban border guards are also known to shoot Cubans who attempt to flee the island by boat without permission, so right now it's a wash as to what this was all about. The boat itself being registered in Florida is probably a clue, as it was reported stolen recently. The United States has not claimed the four KIA as being American yet, and very few statements have been made by American officials, as the investigation continues and all of the evidence is in Cuba. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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//The Wire//2200Z February 25, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MEXICAN TRUCKING UNION BEGINS LABOR STRIKE DUE TO CJNG AMBUSHING DRIVERS ON HIGHWAYS. AMERICAN FORCES CONTINUE SURGING INTO MIDDLE EAST AS NEGOTIATIONS LOOM. CUBAN FORCES KILL 4 AMERICANS IN SMALL BOAT DURING SKIRMISH IN CUBAN WATERS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Middle East: The surge of American forces into the region continues, with non-stop flights of C-17's and C-5 cargo aircraft transferring supplies into CENTCOM. Fighter aircraft movements continue as well, with another flight of F-22's departing the United States for Lakenheath overnight, to supplement the 12x F-22's which transitioned to the Middle East a few days ago. Analyst Comment: On the diplomatic front, negotiations between the United States and Iran are scheduled to take place tomorrow in Geneva. So far no real word how things might go, but if the prior negotiations are any indication, stalling for time will probably be a main goal of all parties involved. Caribbean: This afternoon the Cuban Embassy released a press statement confirming that 4x Americans were killed during an incident that took place in Cuban waters just north of Cayo Falcones. Cuban forces reportedly attempted to interdict an American speedboat, and when approached by Border Guard forces, the passengers onboard the vessel began shooting. The Cubans returned fire, killing 4x passengers and wounding 6x others. Analyst Comment: As this is a developing incident at the time of this report, nothing is known beyond the initial press release as posted by Cuba. No American agency or diplomatic post has commented on the situation yet, and the details of what happened are single-source reporting (from the Cuban government) at the moment. More information is expected throughout the evening as the situation develops. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In Mexico, the situation remains tenuous as clashes have continued between Cartel and Government forces over the past few days. Random roadblocks and skirmishes pop up sporadically around the country, which have made travel unpredictable for many throughout the region. Government forces have continued raids in the wake of the initial targeting of El Mencho. Yesterday, the Mexican government confirmed the death of El Tuli, El Mencho's Operations Chief, who was killed in a similar raid as his boss. Removing the OPs guy from the CJNG the day after El Mencho was killed probably stunted the response to the initial raid, however random ambushes continue on the highways, largely unabated. These ambushes usually seek to target large semi-trucks, which Cartel members use to block roadways via setting on fire. As a result, this morning, the Mexican Alliance of Transportation Organizations A.C. (AMOTAC, the largest trucking union in Mexico), declared a labor strike due to a total of six truck drivers being murdered in these ambushes throughout the country over the past two days. This strike has largely taken the form of truck drivers refusing to drive, with some even setting their own trucks on fire, before the cartel has the chance to do it. These types of labor strikes are common throughout Mexico, as highway robbery is a common threat throughout Latin America. Consequently, logistical problems are very likely nationwide throughout the next few days, as CJNG forces engage in the time-tested guerilla warfare tactics that made them famous. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

S2 Underground GhostNotes

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//The Wire//2000Z February 24, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UNITED STATES CAPTURES LAST TANKER VESSEL THAT ESCAPED VENEZUELA. IDAHO VEHICLE RAMMING SUSPECT ARRESTED. WEATHER CONDITIONS POOR IN TEHRAN.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE-----   -International Events- Indian Ocean: Overnight, the United States seized another tanker vessel, interdicting the last remaining vessel that had fled Venezuela in the wake of the Maduro regime's collapse. The M/T *BERTHA* was captured in the Indian Ocean this morning, after running the American blockade weeks ago. Mexico: Over the past 24 hours, most of the violence around the country has taken the form of arson attacks on convenience stores scattered around the nation, and subsequently looting has been reported at the burned-out stores and commercial venues which have been targeted by cartel militants. Sporadic cartel roadblocks continue to be emplaced on major roadways randomly, which mostly take the form of burning vehicles being used to block the roadway. Most of these roadblocks are resolved in a few hours, and are not usually manned by cartel members. Analyst Comment: Otherwise, Government forces have been able to secure the airports, and the US Embassy reported this afternoon that flights have resumed for anyone who so desires to depart. Most of the conflict throughout the past 24 hours has focused on CJNG forces conducting ambush-style attacks on federal forces, rather than overtly controlling terrain. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - This afternoon President Trump is scheduled to give the State of the Union Address before Congress. The speech is scheduled for 9:00pm Eastern time. Analyst Comment: For those speculating that the war with Iran will be announced during this address, it will be a little late in the day for that. By the time the speech is scheduled to start, the sun will be about to rise in the Middle East, so it will probably be too late timing-wise if the cover of darkness is necessary for whatever is planned. Idaho: The suspect in the St. Luke's vehicle ramming attack has been identified and was arrested last night. Sarah Elizabeth George, a resident of Boise, has been charged with stealing the ambulance, conducting the ramming attack into the Portico Building, and the subsequent attempted arson. Analyst Comment: As one might expect, the suspect's digital profile indicates that the attack was conducted for ideological reasons, which meets the definition of being classified as terrorism. It is unclear as to if terrorism charges will be filed, but the suspect's social media accounts contain the usual indicators of mental instability and open calls for violence. The suspect was identified after leaving the credit card receipt for the gas cans that were to be used in the attack, at the scene of the crime. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Weather in Tehran is not great, with cloud cover rolling in this afternoon. METeorological Aerodrome Reports (METARs) for points around Tehran indicate an overcast sky at 10,000ft remained in place for much of the day, with a scattered layer situated at 4,000ft. The Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for Imam Khomeini International Airport calls for suboptimal weather conditions (cloud cover and rain) until at least tomorrow night. Weather conditions are constantly changing, however very tentatively, cloud cover is forecasted to be murky at best over the next few days. Lunar illumination peaks this weekend, with the window of 80% illum taking place from roughly February 27th, to March 6th. Meanwhile, cargo flights continue unabated, as more resources constantly flow into the Middle East. Analyst: S2A1 Research:

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Hello everyone, welcome to GhostNotes, a project to convert a lot of the S2 Underground

Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//