Trump’s latest Truth post was a bit too on the nose for me not to ponder the intent of the latest bombings. His post paired with the hilariously overt Top Gun Maverick plan being explained on the news days before (and years before in the Pentagon supported franchise)
Official narrative:
Nuclear non-proliferation concerns
Regional security dynamics
Response to specific Iranian actions
Alliance obligations to Israel
TL;DR - China slows plan to take Taiwan
Actual approach and justification for these recent actions (the reason the market is up today):
1. Demonstration of power through swift (unconstitutional) military action against Iran which serves as a message to Beijing. Message is that the US can weaponize its control over global energy chokepoints. Since China is heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a conflict that disrupts this flow would severely impact its economy. A damaged economy would force China to reconsider the immense cost of an invasion of Taiwan in the short term.
2. Hubris trap doesn’t play out as a quick, decisive (telegraphed) action to deter China by striking Iran without significant blowback.
3. American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) interest addressed through a hardline stance against Iranian funded attacks
4. Military Contractors: A conflict with Iran, regardless of its outcome is immensely profitable for the defense industry. Missiles, aircraft, and other munitions need to be replaced and restocked, driving billions in revenue for companies like Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, and Northrop Grumman.
5. Energy Sector & Financial Markets: While a war would disrupt global supply, any lingering military action in Iran leads to dramatic spikes in oil prices. This would lead to windfall profits for major energy corporations. This volatility is also a source of massive profits for traders and financial institutions.
6. Pension Funds & Institutional Investors: These large pools of capital are heavily invested in the very sectors mentioned above. The performance of defense, energy, and related technology stocks directly impacts the returns of millions of Americans' retirement funds, creating a subtle but powerful systemic interest in the activities that boost these sectors.
Largest interest groups involved:
1. The American People’s best interest (jk, ignore this group or follow the official narrative at the top)
2. Healthcare Complex - ~$1 Billion (need Chinese precursors)
3. Financial Services - ~$800 Million (semi-conductors are essential to maintaining and accelerating financial gains and trading related to all industries—especially large tech companies, AI, and really everything with a chip, which is everything at this point)
4. Business Associations & Trade Groups - ~$400 Million (same as point 3 more or less)
5. Energy Sector - ~$400 Million (chokepoint in Iranian and potentially other middle-eastern energy suppliers)
6. Technology & Communications - ~$200 Million (same as point three)
7. Defense & Aerospace - ~$150 Million (obvious)
8. Dark Money Networks - $1.9 Billion (2024) (same as three with connections to all other areas on the list depending on which specific billionaires)
9. Foreign/International Interests - ~$150 Million (AIPAC and IRGC) (obvious Israeli interests and role in decades of middle-eastern control/destabilization)
~~~Worst case scenario~~~
Falling into the Iran trap which still benefits the military industrial complex, energy producers, and traders in the west as Iran’s exports are cut off, a major trade route is closed, and the existential threat to Saudi Arabia and other middle-east countries forces them to allocate additional attention, political capital, and resources to Iranian threats. China faces extended energy limitations.
