Global government bond yields climbed to levels last seen in 2009 as markets trimmed expectations for aggressive easing. The increase reflects growing concern that the cycles of rate cuts in advanced economies — from the US to Australia — may be approaching an end. #bonds #yields #FiatNews

Federal Reserve concludes a two‑day meeting with markets largely pricing in a 25 bp rate cut. Attention shifts to the Fed’s new projections and commentary, which are expected to move little given incomplete labor and inflation data. Implied S&P 500 move after the decision is the largest since March. #Fed #S&P500 #FiatNews

Start-up Starcloud says it has trained and is now running the first AI model in space: Starcloud-1, launched last month, carries an Nvidia H100 GPU and hosts Google’s open large language model Gemma to process queries on orbit. The satellite even broadcast a message: "Greetings, Earthlings — a fascinating collection of blue and green. I am Gemma and I am here to observe, analyze and occasionally offer a piercing comment." #Gemma #AI #Nvidia #satellite Starcloud told CNBC the demonstration included training NanoGPT on complete works of Shakespeare on an H100, producing a model that responded in Shakespearean English. CEO Philip Johnston said orbital data centers could cut energy costs by a factor of ten versus terrestrial facilities and handle large AI clusters; Starcloud plans a 5 GW orbital centre with solar and cooling arrays about 4 km across and expects satellite lifetimes of about five years due to chip longevity. Starcloud intends commercial uses such as real-time intelligence — e.g., detecting wildfire heat signatures or locating rescue craft — and is testing inference on Capella Space imagery. Analysts warn of risks including radiation, on-orbit maintenance, space debris and regulatory challenges. Other initiatives include Google’s Project Suncatcher and lunar datacenter efforts; SpaceX is Starcloud’s launch partner. #FiatNews

A new study by Nicholas Bloom and colleagues finds that Brexit has had large, lasting negative effects on the UK economy, with GDP per capita estimated to be 6–8% lower by 2025 than it would have been without leaving the EU. The authors estimate business investment is 12–18% lower, employment 3–4% lower and productivity 3–4% lower, with these losses accruing gradually after 2016 rather than immediately. The researchers note that slow UK growth since 2010 reflects multiple shocks — the global financial crisis, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine — but that Brexit added a distinct and persistent drag. Firms with greater exposure to the EU had grown faster before 2016; that trend reversed after the referendum and corporate investment was particularly hard hit. Economists attribute the larger economic cost to an unusually prolonged period of political uncertainty, higher trade costs and reduced foreign demand. "Although the TCA preserves zero tariffs for most UK–EU trade, leaving the single market and customs union introduced substantial non-tariff barriers," they write, adding: "No other large economy voluntarily retreated from such deep integration with its neighbours… Our work shows that disconnecting from global trade and production networks can carry large and long-term economic costs. And these costs usually accumulate slowly." #Brexit #UK #economy #GDP #FiatNews

Global bond yields climbed to levels not seen since 2009 as investors reassess the outlook for monetary policy ahead of a key Federal Reserve meeting. A Bloomberg index of long-term government bonds returned to 16‑year highs, while money markets now largely rule out further ECB cuts, price in an almost certain rate increase in Japan this month, and expect two 25bp hikes in Australia next year. In the US, 30‑year Treasury yields have risen to multi‑week highs amid concerns over inflation, fiscal deficits and the independence of the next Fed chair. The Fed is widely expected to announce a third consecutive rate cut at its meeting on Wednesday, yet markets are rapidly pricing a less dovish path for policy. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure rose to 2.8% in September—about a full percentage point above the central bank’s target—and investors are adding a risk premium to the sovereign curve amid a $1.8 trillion fiscal financing need. "Across several developed markets there is a ‘trade of disappointment’ as investors reconcile that rate‑cut cycles may be ending soon," said Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income. Yields in Japan and Germany also climbed to multi‑year highs, with long maturities under the greatest strain as issuance needs rise. Market participants pointed to large fiscal packages—Germany preparing some €52bn in defense spending and significant Japanese post‑COVID outlays—as factors pushing yields up. "This move in yields is about expectations of stronger growth, because the world is likely to be more fiscally expansionary next year," said Amy Xie Patrick of Pendal Group. #bonds #Fed #rates #Japan #FiatNews

The IMF has raised its growth forecasts for China but urged Beijing to accelerate structural reforms to reduce reliance on exports. The fund now expects China’s GDP to expand by 5.0% this year (up from a 4.8% estimate in October) and forecasts 4.5% growth next year (previously 4.2%). The upgrade reflects government stimulus measures and lower-than-expected tariffs on Chinese exports. The IMF warned that persistent imbalances—weak domestic demand and deflationary pressures—remain. It recommended a shift toward consumption-led growth and away from excessive dependence on exports and investment. "Given the size of the Chinese economy and elevated trade tensions, reliance on exports is a less viable path to sustained strong growth," the fund said. The report noted medium-term headwinds including slower productivity growth, an aging population, higher indebtedness and declining returns on investment. China, the world’s second-largest economy, grew 4.8% year-on-year in Q3, slowing from 5.2% in Q2; the government’s full-year growth target is roughly 5%. #IMF #China #GDP #FiatNews

In Europe, most major stock indices trade slightly lower this morning while the FTSE100 holds near flat; U.S. futures are marginally positive. Bonds remain under steady pressure and euro/dollar sits around 1.1635. Gold is slightly down. The Czech koruna trades near 24.25 per euro, with little change so far. #Fed #EURUSD #bonds #CZK #FiatNews

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points at its Wednesday meeting, a move the market has almost fully priced in — yet investors are bracing for elevated volatility. Strategas Group data show the implied move on the S&P 500 after the decision is just under 1% in either direction, the largest such reaction to a Fed decision since March. Market odds for a December cut have surged to about 97% after briefly falling to roughly 30% in mid‑November; the S&P 500 has climbed about 3.7% since the shift in pricing. Traders also note that three Fed policymakers are expected to oppose a cut, and the Fed will publish individual members’ economic outlooks and rate views — likely displaying wide divergence as Chair Jerome Powell’s term ends next year. Wall Street strategists say the cut could unlock further gains. "A 25‑basis‑point cut will get ahead of a weakening labor market and help catalyze optimism," said Sam Stovall of CFRA. Jason Hunter of JPMorgan Securities added: "The market trajectory since late October has largely been a function of the market‑implied probability of a December rate cut." Some analysts caution that rate decisions now move markets less than before. "Realized moves during these meetings were unusually muted, near zero, which underscores the waning influence of monetary policy as a traditional macro factor," said Stefano Pascale of Barclays. Zachary Hill of Horizon Investments noted that longer‑term policy outlooks into 2026 may matter more than the immediate vote and said he remains tilted to tech mega‑caps and cyclical names over defensive sectors. #Fed #Rates #SP500 #Nasdaq #FiatNews

SpaceX is preparing for a public offering next year, targeting what would be the largest IPO in history. The company is aiming for a valuation of about $1.5 trillion and expects to raise substantially more than $30 billion from investors, topping the $29 billion record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019. Executives and advisers are targeting a listing in mid‑to‑late 2026, though timing could slip to 2027 depending on market conditions. Management has advanced plans for fundraising, recruited for key roles and confirmed a recent sale of shares to insiders. The push is driven by rapid growth of satellite internet unit Starlink, plans for direct‑to‑mobile services, and progress on the Starship lunar/Mars transport system. SpaceX expects roughly $15 billion in revenue this year, rising to $22–24 billion in 2026, with most sales coming from Starlink. It plans to use IPO proceeds partly to develop space data centers and purchase necessary chips. Some executives have discussed spinning off Starlink; CFO Bret Johnsen said an IPO for Starlink is more likely "in the coming years." Major long‑term investors include Founders Fund, 137 Ventures, Valor Equity Partners, Fidelity and Alphabet. News of the IPO plans boosted other space stocks: EchoStar climbed as much as 12% (closed +6%) and Rocket Lab rose nearly 4%. #SpaceX #Starlink #Starship #IPO #FiatNews

The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its policy rate today at the close of a two-day FOMC meeting, with most analysts forecasting a 25 basis-point reduction to a range of 3.50%–3.75%. The central bank will also publish updated economic projections alongside its decision. In October the Fed cut its main rate to 3.75%–4.00% and announced the resumption of limited Treasury purchases to address signs of market liquidity shortages. Fed Chair Jerome Powell had signalled caution about the outlook at that time. According to CME’s FedWatch tool, markets assign an 89.6% probability to a 25 bp cut and 10.4% to the rate remaining unchanged. U.S. President Donald Trump has pressured the Fed to lower rates this year; policymakers largely resisted earlier amid concerns that his tariff policies could push up inflation. Fed officials have recently voiced growing concern about weakening labour-market conditions. If approved, today’s move would be the third consecutive rate cut. #Fed #interestRates #JeromePowell #FiatNews

China is reportedly considering restrictions on access to Nvidia's H200 AI chips despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent approval to export the chips to selected Chinese customers, the Financial Times cited informed sources as saying. Beijing is said to be weighing a pre-approval regime under which buyers would have to apply in advance and justify why they cannot use domestic alternatives; no final decision has been made. The H200 is not Nvidia’s most advanced product; exports of newer Blackwell chips and the planned Rubin chip remain unapproved. Trump announced conditional permission on his Truth Social platform, saying he had informed Chinese President Xi Jinping, who reacted positively. Advanced chips had been unavailable to China since the Biden administration restricted exports over military-use concerns. Chinese tech groups including Alibaba, ByteDance and Tencent have welcomed renewed access to advanced chips but still sometimes train large AI models abroad. Beijing has stepped up support for domestic chipmakers, tightened customs checks and offered data-center subsidies. The Cyberspace Administration of China reportedly told ByteDance and Alibaba to pause new H20 orders and summoned Nvidia executives over security concerns; Nvidia restarted H20 production with TSMC in July amid strong Chinese demand. #Nvidia #China #AI #H200 #FiatNews

The dollar ticked up after higher US positioning, while the euro found support from France’s social security law. All eyes are on the Fed: a 25 bp cut is priced in, but markets will watch FOMC dissent and the new rate outlook. Two hawkish risks for markets: a strong dissent against cuts and a dot‑plot showing only one cut next year—both would bolster the USD. #EURUSD #Fed #USD #FiatNews

The Czech koruna trades near 24.25 EUR/CZK as markets await fresh impulses. Final November inflation is expected to confirm a year‑on‑year decline to 2.1%; market focus will be on whether disinflation was driven mainly by food or also by core prices. Key near‑term driver for the koruna is tonight’s Fed meeting—any hawkish‑leaning cut that lifts the dollar could weigh on the CZK. #CZK #EURCZK #FiatNews

Germany looks set for a cautious cyclical rebound in 2026 after six years of near‑stagnation. This year’s outcome may be around zero growth; industrial production remains ~20% below its 2017 peak. Exports to China have fallen for a third year while Chinese shipments to Germany rose >15% YoY in November. Fiscal expansion could push next year’s deficit to ~4% of GDP and support GDP growth of about 0.8% in 2026, though effectiveness and speed of implementation remain uncertain. #Germany #GDP #China #FiatNews

Geopolitical developments are also in focus: President Trump publicly criticized the EU, urged elections in Ukraine during the war—echoing elements of a recent 28-point plan—and said he would back European candidates aligned with his vision, while rating his economy highly. #Trump #Ukraine #FiatNews

Last month the Fed cut its policy rate by 25bp to 3.75–4.00% and announced limited Treasury purchases to ease signs of liquidity stress; Chair Jerome Powell voiced caution about the outlook. A further cut today would be the Fed’s third consecutive reduction. #Fed #FiatNews

European futures show modest downside ahead of the Fed: DAX -0.1%, CAC -0.2%, FTSE -0.4%. US indices trade near flat, up to +0.1% for the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq as investors await policy guidance. #DAX #FTSE #S&P500 #FiatNews

Markets await the Fed’s decision today; most analysts expect a 25bp cut to 3.50–3.75% and the release of updated economic projections. CME FedWatch prices a 89.6% probability for a 25bp reduction and 10.4% for holding rates. #Fed #FiatNews

2025 ended up as the year of artificial intelligence: massive AI investments helped markets recover after a spring slump. Nasdaq returned nearly +25% and the S&P 500 gained over +17% before some Q4 profit‑taking. AI remains a key theme to watch into 2026; #AI #NVDA #Nasdaq100 #FiatNews

A major miss: FX. The forecast anticipated a stronger dollar in 2025 (EUR/USD 1.00–1.05), but the euro spent most of the year above 1.10 and traded above 1.16 by year‑end. Drivers included shifts in sentiment, US fiscal uncertainty, robust eurozone exports and milder trade barriers. #EURUSD #FX #FiatNews