I made this spreadsheet in 2024…I’m not surprised by bitcoin price

Bitcoin needs a wider distribution. If it takes lower prices to get higher distribution, so be it! We want more people to participate in the upside anyhow.

I bought 0.859 bitcoin yesterday. Sold gold that had tripled in value to do so. My regret? Not buying the bitcoin back when I made the gold investment in 2018. But as bitcoin cycle theory seems perfectly in tact (albeit with substantially smaller blow off tops), my best guess is bitcoin will trade sideways to downwards until October-ish, 2027 (the rule of thumb has been to buy 6 months before a halving and sell 18 months after a halving…last sell time was 10/2025, next buy 10/27 given next halving est 4/10/2028), I will wait for more dips to dive in deeper. I want everyone who got out over their skis to claim what would have, in time, been my bitcoin to be forced to sell at low prices so I can buy the coins when there is blood in the streets. Unlike a lot of bitcoin OG’s, I didn’t quit my job, although I could. I didn’t sell out, although I could and have done well… I want to live in a world where bitcoin exists, is valuable, and changes the world massively in favor of the little guy and I will die working on this hill, stacking wisely when others’ discretionary to income fails.

I am not in the Epstein files. The currently released half of the Epstein files, at least. And I’m not redacted from them either :)

CSAM fear, uncertainty and doubt regarding bitcoin relay policy is an attack meant to limit future bitcoin flexibility. Maybe. 🤔 Seems plausible. But I don’t think bad people are generally that clever.

#Bitcoin is on sale! Why am I happy about this? It means I can keep growing my stack. It means my final wealth isn’t locked in yet. You see, today’s price is not unexpected. How does one expect this price? Extrapolation…it works well, at least for a while. How to extrapolate Bitcoin price? Get bitcoin price data, put it in a spreadsheet, fit curve to price…you’ll find power law models fit best. To refine this in to a “support” or price “floor” model, just eyeball delete bitcoin mania prices…you can delete data points along the width of points above ½ or ¾ max if you want to be rigorous… You’ll get an equation for bitcoin price as a function of date. If you use data from 2011-2016 and repeat this analysis and then repeat again for 2011-2017, 2011-2018, etc, all your equations will be remarkably similar in price prediction for today. Who would have thought that when bitcoin was $600 you could make an equation that was even close to predicting its price a decade later using prior price data alone? Anyhow, here are my back up the truck and load up on bitcoin prices each year in January for the next several years…this model will be less and less accurate, I suspect, as time goes on, but it can be refreshed with new data if necessary or one can just use the model less rigidly… I wish I could save an AI prompt to replicate this analysis and share it as a link…