I’ve overpaid for bitcoin…like really MASSIVELY overpaid…everyone did at the beginning. I plotted monthly price data since the beginning, did a log-log transform, fit a straight line to the data and noticed when I first bought Bitcoin, I overpaid. This is ironic, given that at the time I genuinely felt like I wasted my money, of which I had very little at the time (first week of residency). And now I know I literally about 10^3 time too much, if you follow the trend line bitcoin price would later establish in reverse. If you delete the data from über early idiots like me, you see the slope of the line substantially increases…and if you delete even more datapoints, everyone who bought the first year and a half overpaid by a considerable amount. It wasn’t until the 22nd month of trading that people started paying a “fair” price. Note that I get a much smaller exponent than most power law folks…huge difference between 4.4 and 5.8, so be careful extrapolating power laws too far into the future.

On call in house today. Reminder, discharging a firearm through your skull is almost always NOT the right answer. While I doubt I’ll ever see such a thing in relationship to bitcoin in my neck of the woods, it is understandable that some people might feel strong negative emotions about the current price of bitcoin. These price gyrations are anything but rare in bitcoin history. The ability to borrow against your bitcoin is much more widely available now than in years past, although terms really suck, IMHO. Avoid borrowing against your stack. And if you must, borrow the least possible and over collateralize 4 or 5 to 1…or sell bitcoin outright and store dollars in the hope of catching a downward bitcoin price gyration…just remember that nobody can predict the future and it’s really hard to put bounds on bitcoin price behavior, even in a probabilistic sense. And if you really want to play the leverage game, segregate your stack from your speculatively held bitcoin. If you blow your leveraged bitcoin, at least you’ll still have a stack left… And if you did get wiped out on a 2:1 bitcoin collateralized loan, now is the time to work harder and stack more to catch up. Everyone should up there stack while the prices are low, and trust me, people already are and these great prices won’t last forever... But don’t hurt yourself over bitcoin price volatility. Expect it. Be ready to enjoy these bitcoin price discount times rather than hate them. It is a symptom of a fiat world that a good deal on bitcoin makes us feel anything other than happy when we don’t need to sell right now…and don’t be too happy when sitting on big paper gains…keep your head down, keep working, keep stacking, and plan out your future expenses and choose wisely how to meet those expenses…sometimes selling bitcoin does make sense in the short term!

I’m grateful that there are weak hands out there holding bitcoin. I took 1.17 bitcoin off the market over the last two days. Someone gave up a retirement size stack for a song. And my fiat mining job will be growing my stack faster than ever…

Gold is amazing…it is: Divisible Transferable Portable Verifiable Durable Fungible Scarce Oh, and the amazing superpower of gold: No one can stop you from sending it trustlessly at the speed of light over a wire! Oh, wait, no…that’s the massive advantage bitcoin has over gold. The rest apply to both.

I made this spreadsheet in 2024…I’m not surprised by bitcoin price