When Saylor says “All your models will be destroyed,” he might just mean “the end game is the same but the route will not be the extrapolation of the trend.” Bitcoin could “go parabolic,” in colloquial speak (or more precisely either switch to a higher power law exponent or to a very high rate for exponential growth) for a time and all models fail in the near/mid term but with many models ending up with same final answer.

Call me too Gen X, but I believe PTSD is a real condition and you don’t have it. Soldiers. Life threatening crime survivors. Major accident/natural disaster survivors. Real threat to life or limb. These are the folks eligible for ptsd. But your mom not cutting off the crusts if your sandwich in elementary school? IDGAF about that. Stop being a whiny baby.

People asked me: why are you breaking their necks instead of using your gun? I said “to conserve ammo.” But then they said, dude, this is laser tag. 🤣

Someday people will stop quickly misunderstanding bitcoin. That reflexive rejection of Bitcoin that all people have initially — it has a half life. There will come a day when we don’t have any more Keens and Jiangs saying stupid shit publicly about Bitcoin. It’s precisely because we still see these “smart” people being so stupid that we know with certainty that we are still early. The real peak of Bitcoin will happen when there are no more naysaying experts.

Looking forward to @BTC Prague again! Don’t get me wrong, it ain’t no @bitcoinbushbash, but it’s still a stellar conference. Just harder to get to know people.

An under appreciated side effect of holding bitcoin is you make it harder for a shithole nationstate to get a foothold on the network.

I think this is the “correct” Bitcoin model. Hybrid log and linear periodic power law model:

Quantoshi

I think I’ve found a good bitcoin price model. The trick is to detrend by extracting a power law floor first, then fit a hybrid damped log periodic and an undamped linear periodic function to the residuals.

Quantoshi

Using a conservative bitcoin price model projected out further than is prudent, a return of 22% per year, every year (or average thereof) for _20 years_ is not unreasonable. This is a >50x return.

Quantoshi

Bitcoin is for the living…or at the very least it doesn’t fund its own destruction…it should be noted that making quantum vulnerable coins valid for CRQC harvesting is the equivalent funding self destruction. I predict people will reject a dead bitcoin in favor of a living bitcoin and thus we will sunset public key exposed outputs within the next 20 years.