Anyone going to noderunners in Arnhem, Netherlands this weekend?

Noderunners

Noderunners Conference 2026

Bitcoin maximalists unite in the historic Koepelgevangenis Arnhem. Join the orange-pilled Noderunners community on September 19th 2026 for a Bitcoi...

Bitcoin price drops on failure of clarity act. You heard it here first. If it was going to pass, the price pump would have been higher by now.

Bitcoin price isn’t something you can predict. Even looking at past patterns hints that the future won’t be the same. But what does seem to be durable is the 4 year cycle. But,if you look carefully, quantiles cross…which is another way of saying lower highs and higher lows. You can do fancy math t reorder the quantiles (image 2), but the fact remains: the future is full of uncertainties, especially price…but timing the cycle broadly is an easier target to hit.

Measurably better 4 year cycle fit if we censor some time around the debut of Plan B stock to flow model…

I suspect this is going to matter a lot. May all good hearts do with this information what they may…It is my firm belief that Bitcoin will change the world…someday.

This is a pessimistic take on Bitcoin future price. This is the fitting of bitcoin price path through power law quantile regression percentiles over time. Warning: the 10-year extrapolation is extrapolating both power law and phase of the so-called “4-year” Bitcoin price cycle. Might be wise to get some just in case it catches on…

If you don’t own any Bitcoin, this might be the most important post you’ll read this year. Some people feel Bitcoin price modeling is a bit like astrology, but I disagree. Some people are devoted to a particular price model while others hate a particular price model…both are stupid things to do. The reality is this: all models have a measurable degree of utility and no model will be perfectly useful. Anyhow, I had the idea to model the phase of the price along the repeating “4-year” price cycle rather than just the magnitude of the price. If you do a quantile regression on the power law model and plot the percentile over time, the result is reasonably well modeled by a sinusoid with 3.571 year period. The whole log-periodic part visually doesn’t seem to add much. Mathematically it adds about half as much info as the calendar year sinusoid term. Anyhow, here are the calendar, log-time, and combined fits to all percentile data and a 10 year extrapolation. Note that instant with a t=1 time of July 2009 rather than January, but that’s long story.

And this brings me to the fundamental challenge facing America not just today but in every recent generation, regardless of political administration: how are we going to bomb more colored people? Our economy has depended upon bombing brown and yellow people since the 50’s (we ran out of bombable white ones in the 40’s).

I don’t think you can call yourself a white hat hacker for spinning up an AI, stealing a shit ton of money, giving some of it back, and demanding a service fee that is still way way way beyond what those services would have bought on the free market. It is criminal. It’s not maximally criminal, but clearly a crime. But not my monkey, not my circus.

Not gonna lie: #Omarchy is really nice… But realistically any Linux distro would be much nicer with Omarchy’s auto AI diagnosis of a crash and key binding to ask AI to configure something or write a script or whatever.

Joe Carlasare’s book Unconfiscatable is really good, at least to chapter 10. https://www.audible.com/pd/Unconfiscatable-Audiobook/B0H6CZWKMF

I arrived late to Bitcoin in July 2010. Everyone arrives late to Bitcoin. If you allow the feeling that you are late to Bitcoin cloud or paralyze your judgement, you’ll never be accused of being early to Bitcoin.

Did you think overturning the financial was going to be easy? That sovereignty could be bought for a song? That accumulating multigenerational wealth would happen without effort? Bitcoin is hard. When Bitcoin is easy, it has either failed or succeeded, but either way, by that time the opportunity is largely over.