Alexander Kraft

Understanding Bitcoin amplification over long periods of time is how you weather the storm of volatility. Not enough people have actually modeled out how powerful perpetual preferred equity will be over long-term time horizons. Consider the following: Bitcoin amplification turns equity into a Bitcoin rocket. Metaplanet issues MERCURY perpetual preferreds at 4.9%, funnels 25% of NAV into fresh BTC every year, and never touches the common share count. Coupon trickle stays flat, BTC stack compounds at 30% CAGR, sats per share explode from 2,146 to 234,515. Hold one share and your BTC claim multiplies while common stock dilution stays zero. Fair-value price targets at a steady 1 x mNAV: Year 5 = $17 Year 10 $192 Year 15 $2,175 Year 20 = $24,649 One simple engine...preferred equity funding BTC... outruns fiat, debt, and time. This is what a self-reinforcing Bitcoin flywheel looks like. The numbers start to get straight up stupid looking, but this is what the math tells you. $192 stock price by year 10 assuming ZERO mNAV expansion and zero more accretive issuances of common stock. The people who understand this opportunity will inherit the future, and the whiner idiot bears who can't do math will stay poor after capitulating to short sellers. Long BTC / short fiat. With leverage. That's the game

Picture a world where everyone swears they understand what is happening, yet no one actually sees the monster chewing through the floorboards. This is where Strategy stands, holding more of the one asset that cannot be bribed, diluted, or bailed out. The most pristine collateral on Earth. And the joke is that almost no one has processed the obvious. The moment a new credit system forms around an asset, the biggest holder of that asset becomes the gravitational center. By mass. By weight. By the sheer inevitability of markets swarming toward the strongest balance sheet in the room. Strategy does not need a marble building or a bird logo or economists lecturing about "soft landings." It becomes a central bank the way a black hole becomes a black hole. Enough density and everything else just orbits. Think about the original Federal Reserve. It won the throne because it sat on the biggest pile of gold. Convertibility meant something. Then convertibility died, yet the Fed kept the throne through legal monopoly and political muscle. These things always look permanent until they are not. Strategy's claim does not rely on any of that. Its claim grows out of math. Out of scarcity that cannot be rewritten. The entity with the deepest Bitcoin treasury becomes the counterparty everyone would rather face, because markets trust collateral more than speeches. Markets trust scarcity more than regulation Markets trust verifiable supply more than political promises written at two in the morning. Once institutions start stacking Bitcoin-backed credit, they weave themselves into a web they do not fully understand. Every thread leads back to the biggest collateral holder. Strategy becomes the node everyone circles. The issuer everyone wants to hold. The buyer everyone wants approval from. The lender whose terms stop resembling suggestions and start resembling physical laws. This is monopoly by preference. The kind that lasts because people choose it again and again for reasons no law can overrule. Competitors can imitate the structure, but they imitate it with smaller balance sheets. Worse collateral. Higher risk. A permanent lag, locked in by a fixed supply that refuses to give anyone a do-over Follow this to the end. Central banks keep printing money. They keep holding their meetings. They keep pretending that demand for their credit products still exists. And the people migrate to collateral that cannot be altered. Savings migrate. Liquidity migrates. Trust migrates. Fiat keeps circulating, but circulation is not power. Power comes from being the place where credit begins. And the collateral that matters most is no longer theirs. Strategy simply stands still while the world defects toward harder collateral. The fall is a preference. A quiet admission from every institution that Bitcoin protects them better than anything created by decree. Math makes the migration inevitable. Strategy just arrived first.

FUNDS AND TREASURY COMPANIES ARE PUMPING BILLIONS INTO BITCOIN RIGHT NOW. STRATEGY BOUGHT 3,978 BTC BINANCE BOUGHT 5,096 BTC COINBASE BOUGHT 8,579 BTC ARK INVEST BOUGHT 3,058 BTC WINTERMUTE BOUGHT 3,058 BTC INSIDER ACCUMULATION BEFORE A NEW BULL RUN??

Bitcoin is down but Bitcoin ETFs aren't really selling > Most weekdays still see more buying than selling > FBTC and ARKB keep getting steady buys > Daily trading volume is still around $4-5B Total ETF assets are still above $126B Even though the price keeps going up and down, ETFs are not selling much. I'm really hoping we see some green and more buying next week.

Let me get this straight: BlackRock says Bitcoin ETFs are its top source of revenue. Larry Fink says sovereign nations are buying Bitcoin. JPMorgan is offering products tied to IBIT. Vanguard now allows clients to access Bitcoin ETFs. Bank of America suggests a 4% Bitcoin allocation. Charles Schwab plans to introduce a Bitcoin ETF in early 2026. Abu Dhabi announced it bought $520 million of BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF. Texas bought $10 million worth of Bitcoin The Fed ended quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1. There's a 95% the Fed cuts interest rates next week. And you're calling the Bitcoin top at $126,000?

A $120K investment in #Bitcoin, at a 29% CAGR, will grow to $25 Million in 21 years. HODL Bitcoin

NYC - Paris - Monaco - Provence in 1 week... Oh, and did I mention Palm Beach ? Even for me, 5 locations in 3 countries in 5 days isn't half bad... While I have been working hard on a ton of projects behind (and in front of) the scenes, herewith a few postcards from this crazy week...

Most people are concerned about job loss with Al. We need to talk more about anthropological collapse. The biggest moral bankruptcy I see with Al adoption is this: Progress comes from striving, not narcotic comfort. Every human ambition drives innovation. If we remove human ambition, civilization stagnates. We cannot eliminate striving or we eliminate progress. Endless abundance, total comfort, UBI, robots to do our bidding. Right now, we are striving to eliminate our striving. The metaphysical implications of this will be damaging to humans. "Then I saw that all toil and all skill in work come from a man's envy of his neighbor. This also is vanity and a striving after wind." - Ecclesiastes 4:4

It is beyond exhausting to continually see people try to over-explain normal, typical volatile Bitcoin price action. "WHY DID THE PRICE DROP $5,000?!?!?" Probably because people bought it and sold it for prices that are $5,000 less than the previous price. But no, the timeline needs a theory. It can't just be markets doing market things. It has to be something dramatic, like Jerome Powell personally sabotaging your Coinbase account or a cabal of hedge funds coordinating a secret synchronized bathroom break. People desperately want a conspiracy because the alternative explanation is too sad: the market does not care about their feelings, their entry point or their astrology sign Bitcoin went down five thousand dollars because buyers and sellers had a disagreement about what number should appear on your screen. That's it. No prophecy, no omen, no shadowy syndicate of Bulgarian whale-priests running ritual liquidation ceremonies. And every time Bitcoin moves, the same NPC chorus emerges, demanding to know "WHAT CAUSED THIS?" as if price candles must come with a director's commentary

Why are so many people's brains broken with MSTR vs. MSTY? You constantly see the two compared, yet a yield product's job is to pay you today, a growth stock's job is to snowball tomorrow. asset environment. I made the chart below just to visualize the difference. Fixed-income math wins only if you have a short horizon and crave cash today. Shocker, I know. It's almost like fixed-income investors want income. Growth math wins for anyone who can wait and reinvest and are looking for capital appreciation. The cool thing out there is that we have a suite of products out there for investors of all types, and they're all made possible by Bitcoin. Want max income but don't care about NAV decay? MSTY is an option. Want lesser income but more safety in NAV preservation? STRC + STRF are there. Want a mix of income and growth? Maybe STRK or a MSTR/STRD. Mixing the two without adjusting expectations guarantees confusion. The reality is also that payout ≠ performance. A ROC % is the ETF literally handing you your own money. For something that doesn't hold its NAV, that is a liquidation schedule, not wealth creation. But REMEMBER, people buying MSTY aren't looking for wealth creation. They are looking for INCOME. There is a risk trade-off that is also important to mention... not saying MSTY markets this specifically but there is a perception that covered call funds are "income with less risk", but they still keep 100% downside and donate upside - which makes them mathematically inferior in a rising

If Strategy buys half as much Bitcoin next year as they did in 2025, they'll end with ~800k BTC. If Bitcoin enters its true bull phase due to QE and increasing acceptance and it ends at $200k... The 1x mNAV price for MSTR will be in the ~$540 range. Hopefully with more prefs being issued we'll see more amplification on top of that, maybe enough to the point where the market rewards it with a multiple on top of that. Perma-bullish on Bitcoin and Strategy as you all know, but I really like the entry here

If Bitcoin gets cut in half we will still make it to 2065 with our dividend obligations." - Phong Le Strategy is UNASSAILABLE

The Great Harvest hardcover is BEAUTIFUL. In a world where Al dissolves your value, this book reveals the only lifeline that cannot be simulated. As the machines harvest your mind and hollow your worth, The Great Harvest shows the only truth that survives the coming erasure. Buy my book on Amazon now, available on all formats including Kindle and audiobook: amazon.com/dp/B0F5NPC1KC