Dedicated to Justin Trudeau

Why Financial Planners are fiat charlatans and you should eliminate them from your life if you’re a Bitcoiner: There are only 3 choices to make if you have savings: 1. Hold on cash and pray you don’t get heavily debased or confiscated. 2. Go all-in on debt and YOLO and pay back pennies on the dollar. This is the current Cantilonairre strategy and it’s not bad if you’re a Nihilist and know you’ll stay one forever. 3. Go all-in on Bitcoin and protect your savings from debasement and confiscation. The only allocation choice is between 1 & 3 or all in #2. You don’t need a planner to do this for you. The mere suggestion that another can do this for you makes them liars and frauds. If you can’t do your own financial planning under these scenarios, you may as well enjoy life and go with #2 but not pay 2% or more for the privilege.

Fiat Ruined Football Everybody remembers the golden age of football - where defensive struggles and ground attacks determined who were the toughest men. Occasionally a super fast player who could stay on his feet would make a huge difference and dominate the game. But this era thrived in the 70s with the a Steelers and peaked in the 80s with the likes of the Redskins, Bears, and Giants being challenged by offensive upstarts like the Dolphins and 49ers. Bill Parcells had a saying: There are 3 things that can happen when you throw the ball and 2 of them are bad. He was referring to the 1 good outcome of a lot of yards but the 2 bad outcomes were either an interception or a sack. Under such a risk assessment, it’s no wonder that Bill Parcells rarely let Phill Simms throw the ball and focused all his attention on his beastly offensive line. Today the equation is different. Now there’s a good chance of a penalty being called on a pass play. Pass interference, defensive holding, roughing the passer - there are so many ways that teams can benefit from passing plays that the incentive is now to throw on every down. It’s convenient because it’s a version of the game that high-time preference fans seem to like more as well. It’s all in the name of protecting the players but as I remember, Joe Montana, John Elway, and even Phil Simms throwing every 3rd down into a blitz had long and satisfying careers. The big money is in football and they want big numbers, high scores, and Tom Brady protected at all costs. Football became high-time preference. And it sucks now. Fiat ruined football.

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Fountain

Bitcoin Audible • Only the Strong Survive - Full Audio • Listen on Fountain

"In this piece we discuss our concerns around the broader “crypto” space beyond Bitcoin. Our arguments revolve around three primary themes: Phi...

Like Maoist China and Nazi Germany, the world powers created a utopian vision and used every captured method of communication to spread it. The utopian vision was “We can end the pandemic if everyone takes the vaccine” and the cost of noncompliance would be severe if not deadly. Trillions of dollars were spent buying the obedience of the public. Most of it was censoring people who knew the vision would not only be achieved but would be deadly. The rest went to the followers in the form of PPP loans and direct payments. If the powers ever want to attempt such an expensive and coordinated power play again, it will cost 5-10x more. 2x on the monetary debasement alone, and the rest because we all found out it was a big lie. Now we know why we rushed to raise interest rates as high as we did. We need to lower the cost of manufacturing the next crisis. Bitcoin SOOOO fixes this.

The reason that the money supply must be capped is that everybody has a price. Everybody can be bought. Creating new money allows people to be bought. Bought by who? By those who were allowed to create the money, of course! Debasement will require more printing to keep buying people. The inflation rate reflects the decreased purchasing power the state had on its people. Bitcoiners have a money that reflects a lower bound on their price to be bought. We’re bought by Bitcoin and it requires no further debasement of Bitcoin - the opposite - our loyalty depends on the adherence to the monetary policy that bought us to begin with.

When you tell a doctor you don’t take any medication and they try to tell you how lucky you are - The scam is revealed. They don’t even know. They think it’s luck. This disqualifies them from diagnosing anything I care about.

Launching a “bitcoin-only” “trust company” is like launching a rehab that’s also a crack house. Bitcoin-only cannot live in the world of fiat- compliance trust. Bitcoin only requires opting out of Fiat not joining it. Swan doesn’t get this and they never will it seems. You’re really just benefiting the crack house unless the purpose is to increase customers of the rehab.

Fountain

Rock Paper Bitcoin • RPB020 - Riker's Mailbox • Listen on Fountain

Recorded September 9, 2023Fundamentals & Business Cat consider the beautiful dogs.Intro Music: DVRST - Close Eyes00 - Logistics and Meetups21m29s -...

Shane Gillis, Star Trek, Phish (of course), Oliver Anthony, and the fairest and most rigorous pleb breakdown of Swan’s situation you will hear anywhere

Incentives drive outcomes. This is especially true when leaders are mediocre because their only incentive is to not be found out.

If we go back to 2008 and do a checklist: Bank failures (SVB, Signature, Silvergate, Credit Suisse) Bad returns (historical worst 1yr returns for 60/40 portfolio) Credit rating bubble (Sovereigns, Corporates) But now we also have the US over 100% debt/GDP and an inflation problem. Everything the Fed did in the last 18 months just got us back to the rate levels we were at in 2008. Buckle up.

The Normal probability distribution (bell curve) is a psy-op. It exists because it has beautiful mathematical properties and if we can imagine such a world where we can see 99% of results in 3 standard deviations around a mean - then we have an extraordinary tool. 1) we get to assume the Law of Large Numbers without any validation. Every system and sample set should be thoroughly validated before making this assumption and even if we get there, you can’t exptrapolate out of that sample to the next observation. The Normal distribution gives the false narrative that the Law of Large numbers can have predictive power. 2) we get to add the random variables at will and still maintain mathematical equivalence if we assume everything continues to conform to the “bell curve” This puts the problem stated in 1 on steroids. It also gives midwits a framework to publish endless studies without a rubric for proof, providing the “knowledge system” that doesn’t know any better a basis for “data-driven” decision making. Not good. 3) The map becomes the territory and we lose all sense of “tail risk” in systems were trying to understand. When we underestimate the tail risk, we get REKT. TLDR Normal distribution: 1. Gives a false sense of predictive power 2. Gives midwits a framework to provide data to abuse the false predictive power 3. Systematically reduces the aperture to understand tail risk.

Monetizing influence is the Schrödinger effect from which influence is permanently altered. The internet was an awesome place before “monetize” was ever verbified but the line was crossed and we can’t ever go back.

Fountain

High Hash Rate • Golgi Apparatus with Fundamentals - HHR056 • Listen on Fountain

This week on High Hash Rate, Dan and Mike speak with FundamentalsFundamentals, co-host of the podcast Rock Paper Bitcoin, joins us to talk about ja...

Phish invented a secret language - I get into it. Bitcoiners also have secret language. Highly regarded is my favorite because it hides in plain sight.

Swan’s troubles, stemming (in my opinion) from a desire to go public and grow on Fiat capital, demonstrates yet again that institutions can never have the time preference of individuals. https://risk-fundamentals.ghost.io/hodling-is-a-human-action/

This was a banger and everyone should listen to this episode. Phish might not matter to most but they might matter to Bitcoin and you won’t hear about it anywhere else. Most importantly, I feel a brotherhood with these guys and look forward to building the world with them. Come on board and join us. View quoted note →

Swan’s relationship with PrimeTrust as the lead sponsor of Pacific Bitcoin 2022 was far deeper and more meaningful than the Strikes, Folds, Coinbits, etc of the world. They only saw dollar signs with them and never saw this coming. Now their customers freedom money is in the benevolent hands of Ripple of all places. Swan will never recover the influential position they had - ever. Sometimes fessing up to your mistakes is just about seeing them and not making them worse. It’s gonna be super weird at that conference this year.

Keep curating your Nostr signal. Things are gonna get even crazier in this world and people on other platforms are gonna flock here to avoid censorship. The time is now to determine who gives you signal here.

Last weeks Covid convo had consequences. BusinessKitten is born and BusinessCat finally capitulates to some #Phish signal

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Rock Paper Bitcoin • RPB019 - Thank You Mr Miner • Listen on Fountain

Recorded September 2, 2023Fundamentals & Business Cat revisit past conversations.Intro Music: Mychael & Jeff Danna - The Blood of Cu Chulainn00 - B...