“Flowers may bloom again, but a person never has a chance to be young again”
Bluey - Takeaway
Season 1, episode 14
Read the full report here:
https://chaincode.com/bitcoin-post-quantum.pdf
Thanks to Chaincode Labs for the support 🫶
Moving Forward ⏩
This report shows that the Bitcoin community has long been aware of the threat posed by CRQCs and has been debating and discussing Bitcoin’s response for some time. However, the window for careful, deliberate action exists today, and will narrow as quantum computing advances. This makes proactive preparation not merely prudent, but essential for Bitcoin's long-term survival.
Post Quantum Cryptography (PQC) Efforts in Bitcoin 🧑💻
Several leading cryptographers and Bitcoin developers have been joined by a number of new and enthusiastic contributors to design, develop and discuss approaches for Bitcoin’s quantum readiness. While there are a number of existing proposals, this is a rapidly evolving area of research, so it is expected that there will be many improvements in PQC and its application to Bitcoin in the near future.
Burn vs. Steal Dilemma 🤔
Preparing Bitcoin for CRQCs isn’t just a technical challenge, it’s a philosophical one. Should quantum-vulnerable coins be burned or allowed to be stolen by those with CRQCs? This question strikes at Bitcoin’s core principles of property rights, censorship resistance, and conservatism, and may be the most significant test of Bitcoin's decentralised governance model to date.
Bitcoin Mining Resilience 💪
The use and impact of quantum computers for Bitcoin mining, quantum mining, is a different story. Quantum miners would have to compete with highly specialized and optimised ASICs. Grover’s algorithm offers a limited advantage and can’t be parallelized like classical mining. Mining is expected to remain more quantum-resilient than transaction signatures.
Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) Weakness ❗
The ECC-based signatures used in Bitcoin are vulnerable to being broken by CRQCs, putting an estimated 4-10 million BTC ($400B-$1T) at risk - representing 20-50% of Bitcoin's ~19.9 million total supply. Funds most vulnerable to CRQCs are large institutional and exchange holdings, where public keys have been exposed due to "address reuse" practices, and Satoshi-era funds due to script type.
Timeline 🕰️
Experts project CRQCs may emerge by 2030–2035; the report proposes a dual-track strategy to ensure Bitcoin’s quantum readiness:
- A minimal contingency path (~2 years) for rapid response to unexpected breakthroughs.
- A comprehensive path (~7 years) to develop and refine optimal PQC solutions
Is Bitcoin ready for the quantum computing era?
Clara Shikhelman and I explore the threats posed by cryptographically relevant quantum computers (CRQCs) and outline a strategic path forward for Bitcoin to become quantum resistant.
Key takeaways 👇
Regret and “what ifs” are nice thought experiments.
But they’re not worth getting hung up about.
I sometimes think about starting working in the Bitcoin space earlier, and how far ahead I might from where I am now (starting a few month ago in terms is going deeper down the technical rabbit hole).
But if I hadn’t had all my preceding experience, I wouldn’t be the person I am, which may not necessarily be (wouldn’t have been) the best path towards that track anyway
Fate has not brought you here, but embrace, don’t hate the current you.
You’re not perfect, but you’ve got this, you are YOU
nullc 🤗
A lot of Bitcoiners say you should never sell (any of?) your Bitcoin, but that’s a pretty ridiculous concept.
I’m hoping many saying this would be happy to sell Bitcoin if it meant spending more time with their loved ones, it allowed to them to pursue their interests or it afforded them generally “more time” in the best years or their life, to live more freely.
I have done exactly this, do not regret it, and can’t imagine I will ever regret doing so!
Join us for Perth BitDevs/Bitcoin Meetup tomorrow evening at Phat Brew from 6pm.
A lot has happened in the past month, and especially the past week with some spicy controversies, so promises to be a good one!
Hope to see you there 😘
The only good use for election posters, art projects with the kids teaching civil disobedience
(doxxing my electorate)
I mean, I wouldn’t normally share a Disney movie but the soundtrack to this, like Tron Legacy, is going to be fucking sick 🤘
Just joined (sponsored) the
@Australian Bitcoin Industry Body.
Let’s get serious about changing the indifferent and sometimes hostile environment for Bitcoin in Australia 💪🏻
If you didn’t make it through the original report this is a nice and short summary 🤗