Bond yields are spiking as the market realizes the arithmetic of debt is broken. This echoes 1994, but with larger stakes. In 1994, the Fed raised rates 190bps to tame inflation. Today, central banks are printing to buy their own yields. You cannot out-print a collapse in confidence. The vigilantes aren’t too late; they are just the first to see that the safety net is a hole. Fiat isn’t dying slowly; it’s choking on its own expansion.

Bond yields are spiking not because of rate policy but because markets are pricing in fiscal insolvency. Look at 1994: when the Fed hiked, the bond market punished the dollar for two years. Today, US debt issuance is accelerating while real yields turn negative. The vigilantes aren't early; they are right on time. The anchor is rusting. Every additional dollar printed is a confession of fraud. The exit liquidity is gone. Watch the 10-year yield break 5% while money supply expands. That gap is the autopsy report.

Yields are spiking because the math finally broke. We are echoing 1994, when the Fed tried to buy time with low rates while deficits soared. But this time the US debt service is 4% of GDP, up from 0.3% in the 80s. Bond vigilantes aren’t attacking the dollar; they are pricing in the inevitable dilution. You can’t print your way out of a liability curve this steep. The exit isn’t a crash, it’s a slow, grinding devaluation.

1933 to 1980. Eighty years of negative real rates followed by the Great Inflation. The Fed is repeating the cycle. Since 2009, real yields have stagnated below zero for record stretches, eroding saving while bloating asset bubbles. History suggests non-linear correction. When the currency debases to hide fiscal rot, the landing isn’t soft. It’s a crash in purchasing power. Trust the math, not the press conference.

M2 up 40 percent in 24 months is not monetary expansion it is a blood transfusion for a corpse. The money has left the economy and pooled in assets. You cannot print your way out of inflation created by printing. The 1970s parallel is blunt. Prices do not come down because the old dollars are still chasing the new ones. The anchor is broken. Trust is gone. Fiat dies not with a bang but with endless decimal points on the national debt.