#Bitcoin is hope

Why bitcoin price diverts from global M2? While the chart suggests Bitcoin should be higher, there are specific reasons for this temporary decoupling: •Lag Effect: The chart uses a "3-month lead" for liquidity. This suggests that the money printed/injected 3 months ago takes time to flow into risk assets like Bitcoin. The chart implies the market hasn't yet "priced in" the recent liquidity surge. •Counter-Forces (The BoJ Connection): Even though Global M2 is up, specific events like the Bank of Japan rate hike (which we discussed previously) create short-term panic. This panic causes investors to sell risky assets (Bitcoin) for cash despite there being more cash in the system. ◦Think of it this way: The "tide" (Global M2) is rising, which should lift all boats. But a specific "storm" (BoJ Hike/Regulatory fear) is temporarily pushing the Bitcoin boat underwater. Verdict The chart is a macro-bullish signal. •If the correlation holds: Bitcoin acts like a beach ball held underwater. The pressure of rising global liquidity (the water) will eventually force the price (the ball) to shoot up to match the surface level. •The risk: The only way this "undervalued" signal fails is if the correlation permanently breaks—meaning Bitcoin stops caring about global liquidity. However, historically, this gap has always closed with Bitcoin catching up violently to the upside.

Analysis: Bitcoin Cycles vs Global Liquidity Based on comprehensive research: All Past Bitcoin Cycles Matched Global Liquidity The correlation is 0.94 (extremely strong) between Bitcoin and global liquidity from 2013-2024. Here's the evidence: Every Major Cycle Matched Liquidity Phases: 2011-2013 Bull (+4,900%): Global liquidity expanding via QE2 and QE3 2014-2015 Bear (-85%): Liquidity contracting as Fed ended QE 2016-2017 Bull (+2,900%): ECB and Bank of Japan massive QE programs 2018-2019 Bear (-84%): Fed rate hikes and quantitative tightening 2020-2021 Bull (+1,300%): Unprecedented COVID stimulus ($5 trillion+) 2022 Bear (-65%): Aggressive Fed tightening and QT 2023-2025 Bull (+150%+): Gradual liquidity re-expansion The 4-Year Cycle Was NEVER About Halvings Critical Discovery: The 4-year pattern was correlation, not causation: Halvings coincidentally aligned with the 65-month global liquidity cycle Only 41% of Bitcoin's movement is explained by global liquidity, but this is far more than supply halvings alone The actual driver: 65-month global liquidity mega-cycle + 200-day sub-cycles The 4-Year Cycle is already broken: Current liquidity cycle peaks mid-2026 - NOT aligned with traditional 4-year halving expectations Institutional adoption (2024 ETFs) fundamentally changed market dynamics Bitcoin is now more sensitive to macro liquidity than supply events The 2024-2025 cycle is behaving differently - price action follows liquidity momentum, not halving dates What Really Drives Bitcoin: Federal Reserve policy (interest rates, QE/QT) Global M2 money supply growth rate (with 2-3 month lag) ECB, PBoC, Bank of Japan monetary policies Stablecoin liquidity flows NOT primarily halving events

JACK MALLERS: "#Bitcoin is a technology that's way bigger than just me or just this company, it's gonna last way longer than any of our lives." "I'm looking to rebuild society and recapitalize society on sound money that nobody can control and manipulate."

JACK MALLERS: "#Bitcoin is a technology that's way bigger than just me or just this company, it's gonna last way longer than any of our lives." "I'm looking to rebuild society and recapitalize society on sound money that nobody can control and manipulate."

GN Nostr

A more thorough analysis of bitcoin options expiry: The massive options expiry on December 26, 2025, is heavily anticipated by analysts because it creates a specific set of market mechanics that function like a "compressed spring" being released. While option expiries often cause short-term volatility, this specific event is unique due to the sheer size of the Open Interest (contracts outstanding) and the specific strike prices involved. Here is an explanation of why this expiry could unlock significant upside for Bitcoin, broken down by the market mechanics at play. 1. The "Pinning" Effect (Why Price is Stuck Now) Currently, Bitcoin is trading in a tight range (roughly $85k–$90k). This is not accidental; it is partially artificial, caused by Dealer Gamma Hedging. •The Box: There is a massive concentration of Put options at $85,000 and Call options at $100,000. •The Mechanic: Market makers (dealers) who sold these options need to hedge their risk. When the price drops toward $85k, they are forced to buy to hedge. When price rises toward $100k, they are forced to sell to hedge. •The Result: This activity acts like a dampener, suppressing volatility and "pinning" the price in the middle. The market is currently in a "gamma trap" where price struggles to break out. 2. The "Max Pain" Magnet ($100,000) The Max Pain price is the specific price point at which the greatest number of options (both puts and calls) expire worthless. This is the "sweet spot" for option sellers (market makers). •Current Max Pain: For the December 26 annual expiry, the Max Pain level is widely reported to be around $100,000. •The Upside Pull: With Bitcoin currently trading below this level ( ~$89k–$90k), the "Max Pain Theory" suggests there is a natural gravitational pull upward toward $100k as the expiry approaches. If the price moves to $100k, the vast majority of Put holders (betting on lower prices) and Call holders (betting on higher prices like $110k+) both lose, maximizing dealer profits. 3. The "Uncoiling" (Post-Expiry Release) This is the primary argument for a massive upside move immediately after December 26th. •Lifting the Lid: Once these contracts expire at 8:00 AM UTC on Dec 26, the dealers no longer need to hedge these specific positions. The "sell walls" that were artificially capping the price at $95k–$100k vanish instantly. •Volatility Return: The suppression described in point #1 ("Pinning") disappears. If there is underlying bullish demand (spot buying) that was previously absorbed by dealers selling to hedge, that demand will suddenly face no resistance. •The Samson Mow Thesis: Prominent analysts (like Samson Mow) have argued this specific date is when "gravity disappears," potentially allowing Bitcoin to snap rapidly toward $110,000 - $112,000 as the artificial suppression is removed. 4. Positioning for 2026 (The Rollover) The December expiry also marks the end of the trading year for institutions. •Bullish Rollover: Data shows that while December contracts are being suppressed, the 2026 contracts (calls for March and June 2026) are priced with a heavy bullish skew. •New Allocations: As the old "hedged" positions expire, traders often roll their capital into new, further-out bets. If these new bets are aggressive Calls (betting on a price rise), dealers will have to start buying Spot Bitcoin to hedge the new positions, creating a fresh tailwind for price. Summary The upside thesis rests on the idea that Bitcoin is currently being artificially suppressed by hedging flows related to the $100k strike price. •Before Dec 26: Price may grind slowly upward toward $100k (Max Pain). •After Dec 26: The "suppression" lifts, potentially triggering a rapid breakout as the market reprices for 2026 without the burden of the massive 2025 sell-walls.

Hal Finney’s email after Satoshi created #Bitcoin, he predicted someday bitcoin will reach $10 millions a coin. What a visionary!

Good morning Nostr, Let's break down why the massive **Bitcoin options expiry** on December 26, 2025—one of the largest ever, with around **$23.8 billion** in notional value across platforms like Deribit—could set the stage for **significant upside** in BTC's price action. ### Key Dynamics at Play 1. **Pre-Expiry Pinning and Hedging Pressure** Right now, heavy open interest clusters around $85K puts (downside protection) and $100K+ calls (bullish bets). Institutions have sold calls to cap upside while buying puts as hedges. This creates "structural resistance" above ~$100K and damping on big moves—keeping BTC range-bound in the mid-$90Ks lately. Dealers hedge delta by selling spot when price rises (capping gains) and buying when it dips (buffering drops). 2. **Post-Expiry Removal of Overhang** Once these contracts expire and vanish, that artificial cap lifts. No more massive call walls forcing dealers to sell into rallies. If BTC holds above key levels (like max pain around $90K-$100K), many out-of-the-money puts expire worthless, and bullish positioning unwinds without dragging price down. 3. **Bullish Skew in Positioning** While there's downside hedging, the bulk of high-strike calls (e.g., $100K-$118K had huge OI earlier) reflect institutional optimism for year-end/2026 upside. Post-expiry, surviving longs can reallocate freely, and any short squeeze from expired puts could fuel momentum. Historical patterns show volatility often spikes *after* big expiries, especially when hedging flows clear out—potentially directional to the upside in a bull market. 4. **Year-End Repricing and Flows** This expiry includes quarterly + annual contracts, forcing a "concentrated clearing" of positions. With thin holiday liquidity, a breakout becomes amplified. Analysts note risk repricing could favor bulls if BTC avoids a deep dip pre-expiry. Not financial advice—markets are volatile—but this expiry clearing could remove a major ceiling and unlock fresh upside fuel for Bitcoin into 2026. 🚀 What do you think—ready for a post-Christmas rally? #Bitcoin #BTCOptionsExpiry

Good morning Nostr

The new world of #Bitcoin

Good morning #pardonsamourai #freesamourai

Time and health are your most valuable resources. By owning #bitcoin, you can delegate your 40-hour workweek to it, freeing up your time to prioritize your health and well-being, ultimately allowing you to live the life you desire.

GM Nostr

GM Nostr

Here’s a concise, Twitter-thread-ready version (under 280 chars each): Recent Bitcoin Wins – Last 4 Weeks 🔥 1/7 BTC now +1.2% YTD for the first time in 2025 2/7 Surged 5%+ to $94.6k on Fed rate-cut hopes (another cut expected Dec 18) 3/7 Bank of America tells clients: allocate 1-4% to crypto 4/7 Vanguard ($11.5T) opens BTC ETPs to 50M+ users 5/7 MicroStrategy adds cash buffer → no forced selling for 12+ months 6/7 Coinbase Premium & funding rates flip positive → US buyers back big 7/7 Fed ends QT, pumps $13.5B liquidity, M2 at ATH $22.3T Bonus: US banks now legally allowed to trade BTC for customers $100k loading… 🚀

Not QE QE, the money printer goes burr.

GM Nostr.