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curt finch
npub1twan...xjqh
on alby
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big curt 9 months ago
Just another s***** day in paradise in my backyard image
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big curt 9 months ago
The old monetary order is breaking down. How likely is it that the new monetary order is going to be based on bitcoin. It's certainly not zero percent chance When the Sterling slowly went away over a 20 year period the dollar took over in America got a lot out of that Theyvet clearly signaled with sanctions in other ways that they don't really want to maintain the dollars the world reserve currency forever What logical likely thing would be the next reserve currency if not bitcoin?
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big curt 9 months ago
Absolutely. Here’s a speculative, Bitcoin-centered reimagining of The Decline of Sterling—mirroring Catherine Schenk’s chapter structure but projecting it into a future where Bitcoin supplants the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency: --- Part I: Reconstructing the Post-Dollar Monetary Order, 2024–2032 Chapter 2: The Fraying of the Bretton Woods II System (2024–2026) Chronicling rising global debt, weaponization of the dollar via sanctions, and diminishing trust in U.S. fiscal discipline. Nations begin seeking alternatives to SWIFT and the eurodollar system. Bitcoin gains traction in parallel financial rails (e.g., Lightning, stablecoin hedges). Chapter 3: The Rise of Bitcoin Convertibility (2026–2032) Bitcoin transitions from a store of value to a transactional asset as major economies legalize and integrate BTC payment rails. Central banks accumulate BTC in sovereign wealth reserves. El Salvador becomes an early case study; BRICS nations follow. --- Part II: Accelerating the Retreat: The Dollar in the 2030s Chapter 4: The Dollar and Fragmented Globalism The U.S. attempts to retain financial hegemony while new regional blocs (e.g., BRICS+, GCC, ASEAN+) adopt BTC-settled trade deals. The IMF’s SDRs lose relevance; Bitcoin-denominated trade begins to rise. Chapter 5: The 2031 Dollar Crisis: The Fed, the Treasury, and the New IMF A major U.S. debt crisis sparks capital flight. The Fed's interventions become inflationary. A Bitcoin-backed liquidity fund is created by a coalition of non-Western nations. The IMF begins modeling synthetic BTC instruments. Chapter 6: Wall Street vs. the Protocol Wall Street firms tokenize assets and issue Bitcoin-tracked derivatives. Tensions emerge between permissioned blockchains and Bitcoin’s open architecture. The battle resembles London’s City grappling with post-empire decline. --- Part III: The Dollar’s Final Retreat, 2040–2050 Chapter 7: Multilateral Negotiations: Bretton Woods III and the Protocol Layer G20 and BIS organize a new monetary order. Instead of pegging to a fiat reserve, nations peg to BTC’s protocol via Layer 2 networks. Smart contract-enforced monetary rules become standardized. Chapter 8: The 2044 Bitcoin Accords Major central banks formally disclose BTC holdings. Trade settlements occur via state Lightning nodes. The dollar retains use in domestic U.S. finance, but is sidelined globally—analogous to sterling post-1968. Chapter 9: The End of the Petrodollar System OPEC+ prices oil in BTC, ending 80 years of dollar supremacy in energy. U.S. loses final leverage point. The Fed becomes inward-facing; U.S. policy turns isolationist. Chapter 10: Conclusion – The First Decentralized Reserve Currency Bitcoin's emergence reframes monetary sovereignty as a software standard. Power shifts from states to networks. The dollar fades not from collapse, but managed retreat—mirroring sterling’s quiet exit a century earlier. --- Would you like this written up as a future-history style essay or formatted into a fake book preface?
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big curt 9 months ago
Bitcoin is stuck between 110 and 112 and it's boring again
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big curt 9 months ago
Maybe Elizabeth Warren is right Yes, coal continues to be used in Bitcoin mining, though its prevalence varies by region and is subject to ongoing debate. Active Use of Coal in Bitcoin Mining United States: In Pennsylvania, companies like Stronghold Digital Mining operate facilities that burn waste coal to power Bitcoin mining operations. While they argue this process helps remediate environmental damage from legacy coal waste, it still results in significant CO₂ emissions . Montana: The Hardin Generating Station, a coal-fired power plant, was slated for closure but remained operational after Marathon Digital Holdings partnered with it for Bitcoin mining. This collaboration led to a substantial increase in the plant's CO₂ emissions . Kentucky and Indiana: Bitcoin mining has been linked to the continued operation of coal plants in these states. For instance, Blockware Solutions entered a long-term agreement with coal-fired plants in Kentucky, contributing to millions of tons of CO₂ emissions annually . Global Perspective A United Nations study reported that, during 2020–2021, coal accounted for approximately 45% of the energy used in Bitcoin mining globally. This reliance on coal contributes significantly to the carbon footprint of cryptocurrency mining . Transition to Renewables Despite these instances, there is a notable shift towards renewable energy in the Bitcoin mining industry. Recent data suggests that over 50% of Bitcoin's mining network now uses renewable energy sources such as hydroelectric, wind, and solar power . In summary, while coal remains a source of energy for some Bitcoin mining operations, particularly in areas with existing coal infrastructure, the industry is gradually moving towards more sustainable energy sources.
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big curt 9 months ago
Julie and Amanda at John's birthday party image
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big curt 10 months ago
If you're worried about having kids I recommend you watch the movie Parenthood with Steve Martin in it because it will brighten you and also alleviate your fears
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big curt 10 months ago
Here’s the updated side-by-side BTC cycle chart, now including power law dynamics, doubling time, and how highs/lows fit into long-term price modeling: Feature 2020–2021 Cycle 2022–2025 Cycle Cycle Start March 2020 (~$4K) November 2022 (~$15.5K) Peak Price November 2021 (~$69K) March 2025 (~$109K, current high) Duration to Peak ~20 months ~29 months (so far) Total Gain from Bottom ~17x ~7x Halving Date May 2020 April 2024 Structure Double top (April & Nov 2021) Single clean breakout (so far) Top Characteristics High retail euphoria ETF-driven, institutional strength Volume Profile High volatility, retail-driven More consistent, less frothy Consolidation Behavior Choppy, blow-off tops Rounded tops, stair-step advances Support Zones Weak after $69K crash $69K now a confirmed strong support Momentum (TSI/RSI) Overshot with bearish divergence Moderate, rolling off highs Macro Conditions Post-COVID stimulus, low rates Inflation drag, potential rate cuts Adoption Events Tesla buys BTC, El Salvador Spot BTC ETFs, sovereign funds interest Power Law Fit Overshot power law band at top Tracking well within upper band Log Price Channel Topped above upper channel (~$69K) Near or slightly above midline (~$109K) Doubling Pattern ~3–6 months per double in late 2020 ~8–10 months per double post-2023 Relative to Power Law Floor $4K vs $270) $15.5K vs $2.2K est.) Implication Exuberant top = long mean reversion Controlled rise = higher sustainable base --- Power Law Context: Bitcoin follows a power law growth curve, with log(price) ~ log(time)^α. 2020–21 cycle spiked above the power law upper bound — unsustainable. 2022–25 cycle is riding closer to the band, suggesting maturing adoption and slower exponential growth. Doubling slowdown is expected as Bitcoin becomes more liquid, institutional, and widely held. --- Let me know if you'd like this in CSV, or visualized on a power law chart with the original Woobull-style bands.
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big curt 10 months ago
On the wall at a hotel in Charleston and South Carolina image
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big curt 10 months ago
Apparently it turns out that the stock market crashing is all biden's fault Who knew? Also if Amazon includes the cost of tariffs on different products in a transparent way that's apparently a political attack
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big curt 10 months ago
Michael Saylor, as the CEO of MicroStrategy and a well-known Bitcoin advocate, would likely have a strong and critical perspective on the proposed change to Bitcoin’s protocol outlined in the social media post and GitHub pull request you provided. Based on his public statements and deep commitment to Bitcoin—both personally and through MicroStrategy’s significant investments—here’s what he might think about this situation. Core Concerns: Preserving Bitcoin’s Value Proposition Saylor has consistently championed Bitcoin as a store of value and a hedge against inflation, often likening it to "digital gold." Central to his belief is Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins and its scarcity, which he sees as foundational to its worth. The social media post by Jason Hughes ( @wk057 ) warns that Bitcoin Core developers are about to merge a change that could turn Bitcoin into a "worthless altcoin." This dramatic claim would almost certainly alarm Saylor, as any modification perceived as undermining Bitcoin’s core properties—its scarcity, security, or decentralized nature—would threaten its status and value proposition. The specific change in question, detailed in GitHub pull request #32359 titled "Remove arbitrary limits on OP_RETURN (datacarri...)", involves altering a technical feature of Bitcoin. OP_RETURN is a mechanism that allows small amounts of data to be stored on the blockchain. Removing its limits could expand use cases, such as embedding more data, but it might also lead to blockchain bloat (increasing the size of the blockchain unnecessarily) or open the door to misuse, such as spamming the network. Saylor would likely view this as a risky move, potentially jeopardizing Bitcoin’s stability and security, which he considers non-negotiable. A Call for Caution and Consensus Saylor has often emphasized the need to protect Bitcoin’s core principles and resist changes that could destabilize the network. He would probably argue that any protocol change—like the one proposed—should be approached with extreme caution. The emotional tone of Hughes’ post, mentioning "lost sleep" and "clear community rejection," suggests a lack of broad support for the pull request. Saylor might seize on this, advocating for a transparent, community-driven discussion involving developers, miners, and users to thoroughly evaluate the change’s implications. He’d likely stress that Bitcoin’s strength lies in its consensus-driven governance, and pushing through a contentious update without widespread agreement could fracture the community and weaken trust in the network. Balancing Evolution and Preservation That said, Saylor isn’t inherently opposed to Bitcoin evolving. He’s acknowledged the importance of technological adaptability in ensuring Bitcoin’s longevity. If removing OP_RETURN limits could demonstrably enhance Bitcoin’s utility—without compromising its security or bloating the blockchain—he might be open to it. However, he’d demand rigorous evidence that the change aligns with Bitcoin’s fundamental ethos and doesn’t introduce unnecessary risks. Given the post’s dire framing and the lack of clear community backing, he’d likely lean toward skepticism, prioritizing preservation over experimentation in this case. Saylor’s Likely Stance In summary, Michael Saylor would probably oppose the proposed change to remove OP_RETURN limits, as described in the GitHub pull request, unless compelling evidence showed it wouldn’t harm Bitcoin’s core attributes. He’d express concern that such a modification could dilute Bitcoin’s value, stability, or decentralization—echoing Hughes’ fear of it becoming a "worthless altcoin." He might publicly call for: Pausing the merge to allow for deeper analysis and debate. Protecting Bitcoin’s long-term vision as a reliable, scarce asset. Rallying the community to defend Bitcoin’s integrity against risky or poorly supported changes. Saylor could use this moment to reinforce his bullish outlook on Bitcoin, framing it as a critical juncture to safeguard its future. If you’d like, I can look for any recent statements from him on similar topics to refine this further! image