Mstr premium to nav is essentially zero right now so I think it's time to buy some maybe
curt finch
npub1twan...xjqh
on alby
The USA government's fiscal situation is not a wildly different than it was 3 years ago
This surprised me
Listening to bitcoin people like Lyn and others tends to make me think things are moving faster than they actually are in a negative way
Here’s the quick comparison:
Next 12 Months (Nov 2025 – Oct 2026, forecast)
GDP ≈ $31.85 T
Metric $ Trillions % of GDP
Tax receipts 5.45 17.1 %
Federal expenditure 7.25 22.8 %
Tariff/customs revenue 0.225 0.7 %
Deficit (implied) 1.80 5.7 %
---
Three Years Ago (2022 fiscal year)
GDP ≈ $25.7 T (nominal FY 2022 average)
Metric $ Trillions % of GDP
Tax receipts 4.90 19.1 %
Federal expenditure 6.27 24.4 %
Tariff/customs revenue 0.094 0.37 %
Deficit (implied) 1.37 5.3 %
---
Interpretation:
Revenues have slipped a couple points relative to GDP since 2022 despite nominal growth.
Spending has eased slightly as pandemic outlays rolled off, but remains historically high.
Tariff revenue doubled as rates rose in 2024-25, now contributing about 0.7 % of GDP.
Deficit ratio roughly flat near 5½ – 6 % of GDP.
Feels like it wants to move finally
The repo market attempts to be trustless; kind of like Bitcoin
I'm a bank that is not meeting my reserves at the end of the day so I need to borrow cash from another bank and they don't have to trust me if I give them t-bills as collateral
That agreement to Lend based on t-bills is called a repurchase agreement, a 'repo'.
It's called a repurchase agreement because I'm intending to buy those t-bills back the next day at a slightly higher price.
The only thing you have to trust is the t-bills
But you don't really have to trust the other bank
So with the assumption that t-bills are infinitely trustworthy, then you can do a trustless transaction to borrow or lend money
There's trillions of dollars in repo every single day traded back and forth between Banks
It is the biggest most liquid market for anything in the world ever in history
It is this big precisely because it is trustless
And they're basing it on top of t-bills which are assumed to be 100% trustworthy
As bitcoiners we all know that that's not quite true
Someday instead of t-bills this multi trillion dollar market will be somehow based on something that is a derivative of Bitcoin or maybe just Bitcoin itself
Someday
Maybe three or four decades away
We are still early
Kapow
Check is my favorite anything ever...
Based on recent posts and analyses from CheckOnChain (led by analyst James Check, aka @_Checkmatey_
), here's a breakdown of his views on recent Bitcoin market dynamics.Who Is Buying and Selling BTC LatelyCheckOnChain's analysis indicates that sellers have been dominated by existing Bitcoin holders, who continue to provide heavy sell-side pressure and act as the primary source of market resistance. This includes:Long-term holders (HODLers) who acquired BTC below $10k, accounting for about 10% of the supply change since November 2024.
Buyers from the previous cycle (below $55k), making up 38%.
2024 "chop traders" (acquired between $55k and $73k), representing 62%—these are seen as a mix of traders and TradFi inflows.
Overall, HODLers contribute about one-third of the selling, while traders and TradFi money account for two-thirds.
@_Checkmatey_
Retail investors have been net sellers since 2023.
@_Checkmatey_
Short-term holders (STHs) have recently flipped between profit-taking and loss-taking modes, often selling near their buy-in prices during dips, which signals weaker hands exiting.
Existing holders in general (including older cohorts from 3+ years ago) are consistently selling for profit, with daily volumes that dwarf individual large buys (e.g., one entity sold 80k BTC in a single event).
On the buying side, specifics are less detailed, but CheckOnChain emphasizes that demand has been absorbing enormous sell-side volumes without collapsing the price, which he views as a bullish signal.
TradFi vehicles like ETFs (e.g., BlackRock's IBIT) and treasury-holding companies (e.g., MicroStrategy) are described as "tiny" compared to overall sell-side flows, representing only a small fraction of the market's absorption capacity.
@_Checkmatey_
Stablecoins are highlighted as a form of liquid "dry powder" for buying, with their growth enabling easier inflows into BTC.
newsletter.checkonchain.com
Options markets (e.g., on IBIT) are also enabling institutional hedging and capital allocation, indirectly supporting buying by providing risk management tools.
newsletter.checkonchain.com
How Much Dry Powder Is Left to Sell"Dry powder left to sell" in this context appears to refer to remaining sell pressure, such as unrealized profits, underwater supply, or dense cost-basis clusters that could trigger more selling. CheckOnChain notes that sell-side remains "heavy" overall, with no signs of it becoming irrelevant anytime soon.
@_Checkmatey_
Key metrics include:Bitcoin is currently trading in a dense value area where ~30% of the total supply (and 62% of the USD value invested) has a cost basis above $95k. This represents significant potential sell pressure if prices drop deeper into this zone, as it would increase unrealized losses and incentivize exits.
newsletter.checkonchain.com
Unrealized losses are currently minimal (e.g., only a small profile for coins acquired above $112k), but this could grow if momentum slows further.
@_Checkmatey_
Overall unrealized value in loss is low (historically around 2-3% in bull phases), compared to bear markets where it spikes to 20%+.
@_Checkmatey_
Exchanges perpetually hold ~2.3M BTC available for selling, a level that's remained consistent for years despite claims of depletion.
@_Checkmatey_
Daily sell-side from long-term holders alone is around 3k-10k BTC, plus equivalent from short-term traders, underscoring ongoing pressure.
@_Checkmatey_
No exact total figure is given for "dry powder left," but the emphasis is on this pressure being substantial and persistent, far outweighing isolated buys.His Understanding and Vision of the Bitcoin MarketCheckOnChain sees Bitcoin as a maturing asset class in a bull market, but one facing persistent headwinds from underestimated sell-side pressure rather than manipulation or "paper Bitcoin."
He views the market through an on-chain lens, focusing on supply distribution, cost bases, and investor behavior to navigate volatility. Key pillars include:Demand as the counterforce: Every sold BTC is bought, and the market's ability to absorb 100x more expensive coins this cycle (vs. 2015-17) is "wildly bullish" long-term, signaling strong underlying capital inflows despite resistance.
@_Checkmatey_
Maturation via derivatives: Options and other "paper" instruments are essential for institutional adoption, acting as an "insurance market" for hedging risks and enabling larger capital deployment.
newsletter.checkonchain.com
This is a natural evolution, with markets like IBIT options surpassing traditional crypto derivatives.
Current phase: Momentum has slowed, with BTC struggling at the STH cost basis (~$113.6k) amid heavy selling.
newsletter.checkonchain.com
He holds two competing views: (1) dips into dense cost-basis zones could trigger "buy-the-dip" from bulls if losses aren't extreme, or (2) deeper falls might confirm a cyclical top, growing panic and unrealized losses.
newsletter.checkonchain.com
Short, sharp loss-taking by STHs (followed by recovery) is a classic bull signal.
Overall vision: Bullish on Bitcoin's long-term trajectory as it approaches gold-like market cap (~$20T at $1M/BTC), but realistic about volatility—sellers (especially holders) will always dominate resistance, and markets like mining or treasury firms may face forced sales in downturns.
He advises mental preparation, pre-deciding actions for breakouts up or down, and views current pullbacks as "weak sauce" compared to historical bears.
Bitcoin has been boring this year
I DCA
When Bitcoin is flat or down, that's good for DCA-ers
But still I complain
When it's up, I'm winning
But DCA is less impactful, so still I Bitch
I think what we can conclude from this is that I am a little bitch.
Bitcoin is so incredibly boring
Russia is not taken seriously by the EU
They're seen basically as a joke
Ukraine is kicking them in the teeth all day every day
Russia will never win
We have a crazy president
And a shut down government
If you look out your window , or drive down the road, you can not tell
New high 125k!
Dallas is going to beat Green Bay
War is bad mkay
Russia is just plain evil