Gold is clearly a massive beneficiary of central bank buying. It’s the right asset for the current time: history of monetary use, embedded in the existing system, large market cap, easily and demonstrably controlled in the past. Bitcoin may never receive the same benefit. But it’s clearly a huge upgrade for the sovereign individual: easily transferred, divisible and verified, not easily seized or controlled. For these reasons, central banks may never buy and accordingly we may continue to trail gold in market cap for a long time. But who cares?! We have a near-perfect currency for humanity that will protect us from government debasement and theft. That’s more than good enough for me.

I am not an ultra-high-net-worth individual, but I spend a lot of time with this community given my profession. I have about a dozen instances in the past month of such folks finally getting off zero, or substantially increasing existing bitcoin positions. Mostly ETFs, but about 1/3 self custody. A key theme has been unsustainable govt debt and increased distrust from the recent shutdown. But I think there’s also a feeling that Bitcoin is about to get started on a run. Interesting times.

@jack mallers Jack, on the last Mailbag Monday you mentioned not understanding why someone using Strike would want BTC interest vs being all in BTC. Here’s a quick example: - work in finance. Industry standard is low salary and like 75% of total comp comes in a bonus once a year - big family, big fixed costs and combined with low salary, the result is a monthly “burn rate” - so I need to hold 8-12 months of budgeted expenses in something relatively stable to cover known expenses in the year. - could do this in bitcoin, but everything outside of those 8-12 months of expenses is already in Bitcoin or otherwise invested. So this is on the margins. Maybe you’d say put every dollar in Bitcoin, but with the big family it’s certainly peace of mind having that amount to cover < 12 mo. expenses in cash without the downside potential. Would be even better to earn some Bitcoin interest on that.

When do we actually think Uptober or just NGU happens at this point? If Trump wins? He seems more interested in his own coin. When the Fed starts printing? They seem more likely to keep rates at a “neutral” 3-3.5%. And if they do print, it’s going to be liquidity for banks this time, not financing USG stimmy checks in the mail. When the world decides government spending is out of control and bonds are a fool’s investment? The past 6 months would indicate the world wants gold. I’m a huge perma-Bull. But I have this growing feeling that this cycle might look more like a choppy crab walk up the price ladder until there’s some other external event that clearly points to bitcoin. There are a lot of people accumulating and not selling; we need a real demand-side spark.

Guess we’re all voting for RFK!

Took the leap! #NostrOnly Thanks for the persistence on RHR, @ODELL