Maybe you should zoom out.

Pt 6 》So, all in all I’d say no need for panic stations here. Rather, best to hold the course and have some confidence [while remaining hedged] that the process of capitalization aka the LGC curve will continue to perfrom going forward.《 FIN《 {Note: good technical analysis does Not mean rational political analysis. We're all human and have different perspectives. I'd be more comfortable recommending this author if he stuck to the charts.} * source:

BTC: Back to the 70s

What Would a Year-Long Technical Correction look Like?

Pt.5 》 Also interesting to note is the way in which the LGC channel itself shows how modest, how technical, how non-parabolic the recent few years have been… and accordingly how modest the correction in turn is likely to be. What I think we’re seeing here is a process of price discovery, of capitalization, along the lines of the LGC curve itself. The previous upper range of the channel looks to have belonged to the ‘immaturity’ of parabolic markets - it looks to have become redundant in a market that is becoming less volatile and more stable. For the true Bitcoiner this has to be something of a positive to counter-balance the disappointment of not seeing higher prices here and now.

Pt.4 》 Here we have the model of the LGC [Logarithmic Growth Curve] overlaid onto the technicals. Interesting to note that the LGC ‘buyzone’ [that has served investors in the past very well] lines up with the technical bottoming range as discribed above. If price were to go deep into the buyzone, that would be the 55K level; if price were to be supported by the ‘buyzone’ [bottom band of the LGC], that would be the 70K odd level.

Pt.3 》But, the reader asks, wouldn’t that mean prices back into the 40K range? Though an improvement on the 20K range, I still think that looks too low a prediction, and for technical reasons. What’s interesting about the chart, after a prolonged period of a more technical non-parabolic maturing market, is the extended line of resistance come [possible] support as it appears on the chart at the 70K level. I would mark this as the optimistic bottom of the present correction. Also common in market corrections of large moves that remain in an ongoing bull market is the 2nd fib level of a 38% correction [of the real/ log values]. This would have the correction bottoming out at around a more pessimistic 55K range. With the technicals in mind, with the bottom somewhere between the 70 and 55k range, what can the LGC model say about these levels? Can the modular outlook corroborate the technical one, or is there zero synergy between them?,

Pt.2 》At first sight, one might be alarmed with a straight comparison of 77% correction [into the 20K range]. This is something I think highly unlikely along both techncial and modular [LGC] lines. For example if we compare the moves up alongside the moves down, and in real terms, then the picture starts to look quite different. In the previous market cycle, we saw a massive 21x. Even though this still fell short of general expectations, the move was parabolic. This cycle, on the other hand shows a 7x rise off the bottom, and in a manner that is much more technical as opposed to parabolic [an explanation of this is a maturing market]. Given the rise was much less, it is reasonable to think that the decline also will be much less [and once again explicble in terms of reducing macro volatility].

DaveWave article, regurgitating parts for mental health of some Bitcoiners. Pt.1 》The question facing us now is how low will it go. In this article I’ll look at the chart from both the technical and modular perspectives, and sketch the levels price could go to without invalidating the thesis of an ongoing secular bull market. I’m looking at a year-long correction here [from the peak] as that is what we’ve seen previously. IN order to focus on the technicals, we first need to zoom out a little, and on the logarithmic scale [looking at returns and real values], in order not to be disorientated by the large nominal move of the numbers/ price. If we look simply at the above chart, where price moved from 97K to 75K over the past fortnight, the Bitcoiner might be a little alarmed. But the motto of the technician is ‘no alarms and no surprises’, which comes with zooming out a little and looking at proportionate moves.

Embrace the pain 📉 🦡 @Furious Honey Badger ⚡️

I think about 58K is the low #58kGang And here & below is a gift 🎁 Catching knives is hard enough, Fourth turnings are expert mode 🔮

Finally joined Club Orange - almost. Cool sign up by my Nostr Npub seemed promising (Confirmation code in message spam but easily located). No preview / straight-up payment demand to continue? Nah, bro. I gotta know more first.

Club Orange

⚡️ Stack Friends Who Stack Sats ⚡️

(formerly Orange Pill App)