Simple questions that I see the media ignoring on the #war How many troops does Iran have? How many troops does the US have? How many in the Gulf?

Simple questions that I see the media ignoring on the #war How many missiles does Iran have? How many interceptors does the US have?

Ron Paul was right.

"The first casualty of war is the truth" Aeschylus (525-456 BC)

"Seize territory around the waterway with ground troop" WSJ floating the idea of a "limited" ground invasion. 🤦

“Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America nor, for that matter, in Germany. That is understood. But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship. ... [V]oice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.” ― Hermann Göring

Almost even odds for boots on the ground in March! Another big jump in 24hrs, another Saturday escalation.

Polymarket

US forces enter Iran by..?

$116,211,380 has traded on "US forces enter Iran by..?" as of April 4, 2026. View real-time odds or trade on The World's Largest Prediction Market™

Hear me out... Polymarkets but with zaps ⚡ No account needed, no registration. All you need is an npub and LN address. To bet you just zap the YES or NO note.

I have not done TA in a while... but this chart looks awful. I would not long this with government money. #SPY

89% delete recommendation. Loving the prompt!

EU Regulation Review

A live AI review of the entire corpus of EU regulations from 1958-2025

As societies become more complex and sophisticated, rules and laws accumulate until they are too many, too complex, too restrictive. "Corruptissima re publica plurimae leges" in the words of Tacitus. Historically hyperregulation has 3 solutions: 1. Deregulation (Milei, Erhard) 2. Codification (Justinian, Napoleon) 3. Revolution #regulation

I'm updating scenario probabilites based on latest developments. The possibilities for quick negotiation have almost completely evaporated. The US will need boots on the ground, even if it's very limited and just at a few points near the coast. My most probable scenario at this moment is Iraq 1 (1990). There is still a reasonable probability that the US and Israel could pull back and limit themselves to a siege/embargo of sorts.

Big new push in the EU for censorship. Applauded by all the usual suspects. #Nostr is necessary.

The problem with AI is that the result always looks good, until you zoom in. Always some typos, always loses precision. Still... it is fast. #history #timeline

"Never let a crisis go to waste" Spain PM Pedro Sánchez call for accelerated digital euro launch. #cbdc #hispano

Libre Mercado

Sánchez pide adelantar la entrada del euro digital mientras Suecia defiende el dinero efectivo en plena incertidumbre

"Europa necesita una arquitectura de pagos soberana", señaló Pedro Sánchez, que quiere acelerar la creación del euro digital.

The amount of war propaganda flooding media is astounding. It's reached a point where you are closer to the truth ignoring it completely. Searching for accurate bits of info is hard work.

Acabo de grabar con @imjackyrivero @BTC Consulting 360 @Decentralized y @npub19dg0...6yd2 sobre Nostr. ¡Muchas gracias! #hispano #hola

This is just a rough approximation. But you can see the alignment between climate and artifact production. Mediterraneans definitely produced (and traded) more pottery when it was warmer. Of course the artifact count suffers heavily from selection and survivor bias... but the sample is still large enough that it is a good economic proxy.

Art and data align. The main branch curves with historical climate data, which in turn affects the East-West power balance. Mediterranean trading in bronze age vessels cares a lot about the weather. Just ask Odysseus! #history #timeline

The art and the data align reasonably well. #history #timeline