Good summary of impact of inflation on stocks. Current situation parallels the 1970s.

USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) is spotted in the Gulf of Oman about 125 miles from the Iranian coast.

Taiwan is next. -Taiwan has just realised that there is zero need for an invasion, an oil blockade would bring them to their knees. -China has just realised that the US is unable to protect GCC allies with 100+ bases in the region. Are they going to protect Taiwan from Japan? -NATO is more divided than ever. If they won't fight over Iran, there's no way that they would over Taiwan. -US assets are now concentrated in the Persian Gulf and will be offline for operations in East Asia for at least 6 months. -China has provided Iran with ISR, satellite data for missile targeting. (As we suspected - confirmed today by FT). -Cheng Li-wun meets Xi Jinping. -Pedro Sánchez, Spain's PM, is reported to have pledged support for Taiwan reunification to Xi in recent visit. ==> China has a very rare window to get this done peacefully within 1 year. No invasion needed.

Interesting Scott Ritter theory in this video: https://www.youtube.com/live/Zi5nNHNiYuU The deal is already done. Trump is just maneouvering to take credit. I'd love to believe it's true. It would finally stop this war. I can imagine so many worse ways that this could end. #Iran

Iran negotiators should have offered to end their nuclear programme... in exchange for Israel ending theirs. With the same international inspection regime for both.

Ah, the double blockade. A classic from Caesar's siege of Alesia and a thousand other historical scenarios. The problem is that it tends to be good for starving out an opponent... not for a quick resolution. Oil consumers should be trembling right now.

On Iran Bitcoin mining, tolls and other...

Understanding Iran’s complicated relationship with bitcoin

They are using F-16 to shoot down drones? It makes for a very good videogame or top gun movie... But it sends a very worrying signal about the supply of interceptors. I'm not sure that it makes financial sense to lose an F-16 to take down two shaheds...

In their effort to deny the Hormuz Bitcoin toll news, they have confirmed a bunch of things about Iran, Russia, Venezuela and China that were only rumours until now. Chainanalysis, TRM and the usual suspects (Udi, you spook!) have all jumped to deny. But the fact that Bitcoin is being used for billions in energy deals is out. It's only a matter of time now. The incentives are clear. Let the game theory play out.

Is Iran Collecting Hormuz Tolls in Bitcoin? This Crypto Intelligence Firm Is Skeptical

Very interesting article on the yuan #cbdc The e-CNY continues to fail to attract users. https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/great-retreat-beijings-digital-currency-ambitions-are-faltering

Scott Bessent: Digital Asset Rules Need Clarity https://www.wsj.com/opinion/digital-assets-rules-need-clarity-6dfcab70

Quick update from @River

Iran officially confirmed to accept Bitcoin for Hormuz toll. I did not expect this to happen so fast! https://www.ft.com/content/02aefac4-ea62-48db-9326-c0da373b11b8