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Leon
@leonwankum@BitcoinNostr.com
npub1v5k4...8rd9
Bitcoin. Real Estate. Philosophy & Ethics. Proof-of-Work. Newsletter: leonwankum.substack.com
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leonwankum 2 years ago
Some of my thoughts on what interest rates would look like under a Bitcoin standard? 👇 In a free market under hard money, the actual or market interest rate depends on various factors, in particular the supply and demand for capital. When the supply of capital exceeds demand, the market interest rate falls, while it rises when demand exceeds supply. The market interest rate is therefore the price at which capital is exchanged on the market. A net interest rate would likely emerge naturally. We can assume that the interest rate would reflect the general time preference of people in the economy. Under a Bitcoin standard, interest rates would likely be higher, as the risk of capital loss is higher with a finite money such as bitcoin than with a fiat currency. This will likely result in higher interest rates being demanded to compensate for the higher risk. Under a fiat standard, the "risk-free" interest rate is tied to inflation. A US Treasury bond with a yield of 5-6% would be considered risk-free, among other things, because the yield theoretically compensates for the loss of purchasing power that fiat money experiences. More importantly, the "risk-free" interest rate component of fiat money refers to a country's risk of default, which is generally considered very unlikely since states are able to produce money “endlessly”. The term "risk-free" is misleading. It does not exist per se. Opportunity costs exist always and everywhere and the market interest rate depends on various factors, including the risk of capital loss. There is also a historical certainty that any fiat currency will eventually go to zero, which is often not reflected in the fiat market's "risk-free" interest rate. Under a Bitcoin standard, the lowest risk component relates to the risk of loss of bitcoin held in self-custody. When stored in cold storage, those bitcoin are the holder’s alone and not in danger of confiscation or inflation by third parties. The lowest risk return for #bitcoin is directly related to productivity. Since bitcoin is finite, the value of individual units increases with human productivity. There is a risk of not participating in the increase in the value of bitcoin (deflation) in the event of a loss. The interest rate on a loan under a Bitcoin standard would likely be the deflation rate plus a risk premium to compensate for the potential loss of bitcoin. Full article:
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leonwankum 2 years ago
Have you ever wondered what the cost of rent would be under a Bitcoin standard? 👇 #BitcoinUrbanism #Housing An important factor in determining the average cost of rent in a given geographic area would be the average disposable income of a household in that area. Over time, rental prices would emerge naturally from the market. This is a very complex subject. According to the Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises, rent is not the specific revenue from land, it is a market phenomenon, where entrepreneurs are willing to take risk by investing funds in the production of a house to earn a return (rent). Mises called this “originary interest,” which refers to the markup between factor prices and the expected revenues from the sale of the finished product. The implied rate of return on a production project. When renting, the surplus money from not purchasing a house can be used for something else that is considered more important. For example, to finance a business or to save (for comparison: Under fiat, excess cash can be used to buy bitcoin). We can expect the #rent to be close to the risk-free interest rate under sound money, plus an adjustment for risk, because after all, the rental is not risk-free. The property could be damaged and rent not paid. Yes, insurance could be purchased, but it would be costly and time-consuming. The market interest rate would reflect the overall time preference of people in the economy. A risk-free interest rate would naturally emerge from the market, as will for example the average rents. Full article:
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leonwankum 2 years ago
Have you ever wondered what the price #housing under a Bitcoin standard would be ? 🏛️ #RealEstate prices will ultimately depend on supply and demand. If people are willing to pay a premium for location, etc., they will. Deviation from the average will be the natural result of market forces. Overall, price movements of housing will become more closely tracked to population changes and scarcity of land. Right now land scarcity is artificial due to government regulations (zoning laws). It is likely that regulations will continue to exist as municipalities and similar entities are interested in creating a particular building appearance, but they are unlikely to be as restrictive as they are today. In general, housing would be cheaper because the level of financialisation would be much lower, as people can save in bitcoin (by default) and not have to invest to compensate for inflation. Plus, deflation would make it cheaper over time. 💫 Demand for real estate investment loans would also decrease as people can save in bitcoin. By functioning as an actual store of value, bitcoin will most likely absorb the monetary premium that real estate has accumulated over decades of monetary inflation and housing will collapse to its utility value. This would change the home buying experience. 🏠 Much of the current financial infrastructure surrounding real estate, including brokers, will become less important and partially disappear. When buying a house, rent should be considered as an opportunity cost, because the opportunity cost of owning a house to live in is that it can’t be rented out to generate additional income. 🧡⚡ image
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leonwankum 2 years ago
By functioning as an actual store of value, bitcoin will most likely absorb the monetary premium that real estate has accumulated over decades of monetary inflation and housing will collapse to its utility value. View quoted note →
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leonwankum 2 years ago
#Bitcoin radically changes the housing market for the better.
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leonwankum 2 years ago
We often don't realize we are in the moment until it is a memory. 💫
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leonwankum 2 years ago
Nothing like doing Breathwork in the morning. 💫 Connecting with the inner source. ✨
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leonwankum 2 years ago
The nature of Bitcoin as a digital asset makes it impossible to fit 1:1 into the framework of property as we know it. One can possess bitcoin, but never truly own it in the conventional sense. In my new article for @Bitcoin Magazine I explain the difference between possession and property as well as why Bitcoin continues to create the basis for peaceful coexistence and efficient resource allocation between market participants.
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leonwankum 2 years ago
#Bitcoin emerges as the ultimate store of value, a prime treasury asset that safeguards productivity from the clutches of monetary inflation.
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leonwankum 2 years ago
I had the honour of being guest on the 100th episode of @Niko Jilch's German Bitcoin podcast "Was Bitcoin bringt.". He is a tremendous asset to this space. We talked about how Bitcoin will replace the broken monetary system - and with it, #realestate investments as we know them today. The first part of our conversation is online. 💫
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leonwankum 2 years ago
Buy bitcoin. Defund the state. 💫 🕊️ image
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leonwankum 2 years ago
In times of doubt, retreat and refocus. 💫
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leonwankum 2 years ago
I started this morning, like most, with a meditation and breathing exercise session. I try to remind myself every morning why I am here and connect to the cosmos by connecting to my inner voice. Today it is humility that I needed to be reminded of... Thank you souls for inspiring us on Nostr by sharing your thoughts and journeys. image
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leonwankum 2 years ago
As an actual store of value, Bitcoin will absorb the monetary premium that #realestate has accumulated under decades of an inflationary monetary regime and deflation will cause prices to drop over time. Under a Bitcoin standard, #housing will become affordable, as it should be. View quoted note →
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leonwankum 2 years ago
Germany has put a cap on rents, which have risen enormously due to inflation. This is a mistake. A price ceiling creates a shortage of the good in question, because it’s production becomes unprofitable. Since the reason for the rent control is to make it easier to find housing, the removal of apartments from the market is not a sensible nor effective policy. #Bitcoin fixes this.
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leonwankum 2 years ago
Bitcoin radically changes the housing market for the better.
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leonwankum 2 years ago
As accessible collateral, bitcoin will create a financial system where owning collateral and using it for credit will be far more accessible than it is today. This enables greater productivity and efficiency in the global economy. The improved lending systems in the West over the past centuries enabled economic actors to discover and realise the potential of their economic activity and generate additional productivity. Fiat money has distorted this system. Bitcoin will restore it and expand it around the world.