Important Similarities Between the Current #Bitcoin Cycle and the Previous Cycle
This chart shows several important Cost Basis patterns for #Bitcoin, that is, the average purchase price of different groups of investors on the network. The important point here is that the current #Bitcoin price is again in an area that has a significant similarity in terms of cycle structure to one of the critical points of the previous cycle.
In the previous cycle, after the main market ceiling and the start of a heavy correction, the price went below the moving averages and some price patterns for a while. Then a temporary rebound was formed; but this rebound stopped in a range where the price could not consolidate again above key levels such as the moving averages and Cost Basis patterns. This is the same area marked on the left side of the chart.
Now, a similar structure is seen in the current cycle. After the recent correction, the price has made a fairly significant recovery, but has again reached a range where it faces resistance from above from price patterns and important averages. Simply put, the market is not yet at a point where we can confidently say that the previous bullish structure has been fully restored.
The key point is this:
At both points, the price has attempted to return to higher areas after a serious correction; but it is located right near the same levels that have acted as structural resistance in the past. In the previous cycle, the inability of the price to break and consolidate above this range was one of the signs of continued market weakness.
Therefore, the current situation should be followed carefully. If #Bitcoin can consolidate above these levels, it could be a sign of the return of strength to the market. However, if we encounter a price break through this range again, the same scenario as in the previous cycle becomes more serious; that is, a temporary recovery in the middle of a larger corrective structure.
In my opinion, this chart does not give a definitive bullish or bearish message at the moment, but it does have an important caveat:
The market has reached a decision zone. A successful break through this range could improve the structure; But a break in this area could reinforce the similarity of the current cycle to the weak phase of the previous cycle.
So in the coming days and weeks, it’s not just the price itself that matters; it’s whether or not the price can consolidate above these price patterns.
