A Worrying Similarity to the Previous Cycle
In the NUPL-Z chart, the current #Bitcoin situation resembles a part of the previous cycle in one important way, where the price, after a temporary rise, had not yet managed to enter a phase of real strength in terms of unrealized profits and losses.
The important thing is that in both areas marked, the price has apparently tried to recover, but the indicators related to unrealized profits, especially among short-term holders, still remain near zero or negative territory.
This means that a significant part of the new buyers are not yet in a strong profit position. If such a situation continues, it could be a sign of weak demand and the fragility of the recent growth.
In the previous cycle, the same kind of weakness after the price recovery ultimately led to the continuation of the bearish phase. Therefore, the current situation should not be interpreted simply as a definitive bull market return.
As long as the NUPL-Z cannot enter a sustainable positive territory, especially for short-term holders, the possibility of a bearish scenario remains serious.
📌 The market has not yet completely surrendered to the decline, but from the perspective of this indicator, the current similarity to the previous cycle is a clear warning: a price recovery without a strong improvement in holder profitability could be just a temporary rebound in the midst of a bearish structure.
