summary of housing market fundamentals:
1. majority demographic (boomers) need stable—at worst—or increasing home valuations. this is a retirement dependency and is non-negotiable.
2. future majority demographics (millennials, z) need lower valuations. this is a family/future-building dependency and is non-negotiable.
3. political cycle is based on the next election (2 years max) so the future demographics are ignored in favor of the status quo.
4. the fed owns multiple trillions in MBS as a result of 1. and 3., this is the primary factor in the market pricing of residential property.
this leaves government the following options: legislate supply increase to bring valuations down, fight the fed to bring valuations down through reduction of MBS on their balance sheet, do nothing, or actively encourage high valuations by seeking lower rates from the fed and legislating regulations on housing starts (we are here).
thus we can reasonably conclude that 1., 3., and 4., far outweigh 2.
feel free to ask me what you should do about that if you are a younger person, but hopefully you already know my answer if you are reading this (spoiler: hoard some fucking bitcoin)
supermass
npub10585...aru0
#bitcoin
@supermassbtc on twitter (yeah i know, dgaf)
we really are in need of a bear market.
the suitcoiners would give up because this time around there’s no FTX/GBTC/TERRA shit to blow.
it’s all public companies, spot ETF, wealth funds, pensions.
a bear market would convince the larpers that “the thesis isn’t correct” and then people who get it can stack (and we can go up again with real foundations and leave the larps behind.)
i am fairly confident the global shift regarding “the thesis” will happen due to demographics, not whatever the fuck david bailey is doing to accrue more larpers
zapvertising is not going to work y’all.
seriously, consider what you’re doing as a business that tries to zapvertise.
you are attempting to influence people to become your customers by selling your treasury.
sell your product!
sorry y’all but the Square announcement is a nothing burger
i think people were always a little over optimistic about “the bitcoin conference”
unpopular opinion:
we should be encouraging the hoarding of bitcoin, not MoE.
normies are getting stuck on MoE and have been forever.
Saylor approach to messaging is more correct.
hoard the corn until you are so fucking wealthy.
wealth effect takes care of MoE for us over time, people will be so rich from hoarding that they will feel deeply compelled to spend. this is when merchants will adopt to meet the demand.
path dependent process
ok wake me up at sub-500 moscow please n thanks
everyone pushing to rename to bits is a corporatehead.
once you see this there is no point to engage in the discussion.
sats have won the public trust.
ngl and hopefully i’ll be laughing at this soon but—this is literally exactly what I felt like in 2021 at 69k
GM
“sats” is lindy, get over it
actually the coinbase news is the biggest in a long, long while
implications are (super)massive
@Alexander Leishman is the professional’s professional.
I hope the guy has a nym he uses to shitpost and live amongst the plebs.
must be hard being that locked in all the time
man, coinbase goofed and now I have zero bitcoin other than what’s in my lightning wallet for zaps.
total bummer, might as well keep zapping the rest out though
the pace of back-and-forth re: OP_RETURN has gotten so fast and detailed that I can’t keep up right now
macro tonight, let’s zoom out:
20YR treasury.
the rise in yield has been relentless post-covid, a true bear market.
keep the analysis simple, what’s the trend?
even if the pace of sell-off tapers—as appears to have happened recently—will it reverse?
if you think not, you believe inflation will continue to be structurally higher than the prior decade.
the market is speaking this view.


Katie Martin is technically correct but the market for teeth is unfortunately saturated.
#lunchstr


forgot to mention that nostr can’t do dm’s at all 😂 ‘tis but a scratch
how twitter became a life-hack, and how nostr will replace it:
starting with the 140 char limit, twitter grew rapidly in its niche: social media which is text-based but witty, quick, fun.
this, in opposition to long-form content and its severity and time consumption.
then you sprinkle in a battle for censorship resistance which is (mostly, albeit imperfectly) won.
then you expand optionality to introduce long text.
then you integrate intelligent communication with the data that exists within the internet.
and here we are.
culturally, it is a haven for those off-the-cuff, free speech induced bursts of pure identity. it is free, fun, wild!
but when called upon, it morphs into a global socratic society with the most proven thought leaders in their respective fields dissembling and recreating the forefronts of collective knowledge.
life. hack.
nostr will be the same, through its own path.
quietly eroding certain aspects of twitter’s grip (think dave > grok, real censorship resistance) while introducing a forefront of its own: native integration of the internet’s very own money.
at times along the way nostr feels like a cheap knockoff, the critics proclaim “it’s so slow, so buggy, so weird! keys and clients? where is the ‘nostr app’?”
at times it feels incredible, too good to be true, even for its own supporters, “primal? that’s custodial! damus? iOS? Apple censorship! hey, ross is here! yeah but he’s going to shitcoin!”
and at times it feels like nothing at all. here we are. we post. we zap. we read. we meme. we log off and touch grass (if we’re lucky) and nostr is… just here. we come back. we go again. it just feels real, normal.
to nostriches, the world has changed, spoken to us, revealed a reality that has consumed our identities and renewed them.
to others, the world waits for no one and tomorrow brings with it their next challenges, their next discussions, their next battles of ideology, policy, governance, science, technology, war, economics, athletics, religion, morality.
each battle is a war of ideas; each brings new life to nostr, the only fair battleground for all.
nostr, where you can raise your own army, fund your own strategy, build your own revolution on your own foundation.
not because an algorithm says you’re right.
not because an authority has silenced your opposition or frozen their war chest.
not because you have paid for victory from your stash of paper.
but because of the strength of your voice, the sweat of your brow, the truth of your heart.
you prove your work here. and here alone.
the world has seen this and it has spoken, and the time will come for those who wait.
and for us, who are here now, how special it is! i truly love you all and i cherish this time while nostr is unburdened by the weight it will come to bare.
let’s keep this thing going #grownostr
this was my first real attempt at long form writing, apologies for my capitalization and punctuation style which many find difficult to flow with.
hopefully you still enjoyed and if you read this far (and are still reading for some reason you psycho) thank you! you are awesome.
shameless tags will now follow as my ego craves visibility @ODELL @corndalorian @Derek Ross @Damus @jack @Jeff Booth @Marty Bent @DETERMINISTIC OPTIMISM 🌞 @Adam Back @fiatjaf @Gigi @wiz @Cameri🐦🔥 @jack mallers @Lyn Alden @npub1sn0r...jtws @Guy Swann @Edward Snowden
this is making the rounds on twitter, rightfully so. absolutely hilarious stuff.
the fact people like this exist (“i have no clue what’s going on but im going to double down, proudly proclaim ignorance, and loudly defend that you don’t know either”) is an absolute blessing.
thank you for your service!