Financial goal: hit escape velocity. Expenses lower than passive income. Thats it, keeping it simple. Grow the income side, reduce expense side. Don’t fret the details.

I’ve got 2 points of Bitcoin maxi rhetoric I’m struggling with at the moment, maybe you can help me out. In a BTC-only world, my biggest concern is the rebirth of financially-driven wars in geopolitics. Bitcoiners say without infinite money, wars are unsustainable, however I think nations will start analysing the potential profit from seizing other nations’ BTC. Especially given there can be no sanctions on the permissionless transactions. The nation-state equivalent of a $5 wrench attack is a 50000 BTC invasion to seize150000 BTC. My other concern is that I don’t understand how credit can work in a BTC-only world with deflationary prices, I feel like we would end up with no social mobility. The rich stay rich, the poor can’t grow their wealth as they won’t have access to capital to expand their businesses. I guess you could raise capital via selling equity in the business. Raise 1 BTC to buy a machine that has positive sats flow, pay dividends to your equity holders. The compression of prices without credit brings prices closer to the cost of production. The machine would need to return more BTC than the deflation rate, or no one would take the deal. It feels really economically restrictive?

Oooooft RIP LNP

Possibly some free alpha for my NOSTR freaks in our goon cave. Fold App (FLD - Fold Holdings) with 1485 Bitcoin ($125mil) in its treasury trading at $2.69, market cap $126 mil… Trying to work out this valuation, assets minus liabilities minus a % on cash burn rate? I can’t use Fold as a non-US based person, is it a good user experience? 59000 people in the credit card waiting list. Assume average APR of credit card of 21.47%, average of 47% of credit card holders have a carry over balance, average carry over balance is $6580. Potentially approx $39 mil a year ($3.3 mil a month) in interest payments to collect from Fold’s current waiting list. Fold spends ~$360K a month cash burn. Fold cost of capital is reported as “around industry average”, 8.74%, rounding up to 9%. Fold would be paying ($6580 x 0.09) x (59000 x 0.47), $16.4 mil a year, $1.3 mil a month for this credit. Looking at ~$2 mil a month in free cash flow before additional costs and losses around providing credit (no idea what to deduct here). Cash burn rate goes from -$360K a month, to $1.64 mil. Long term, assume some Bitcoin purchasing into treasury once profitable of like 10% of profits, accruing $160K BTC a month. Bitcoin Yield (%) = ((BTC per share at end of period / BTC per share at start of period) - 1) × 100 Modelling out 2 years from credit card launch, assume BTC average price of $100K (insert your optimistic BTC price here) $160K / $100K x 24months = 38.4 BTC 50mil shares (approx fully diluted)) , assume no capital raises via equity. ((((1485 BTC + 38.4 BTC)/50 mil) (1485 BTC /50mil)))-1)*100 = ~2.6% BTC yield. 2.6% BTC yield just on re-invested profits, plus assumed BTC in treasury price appreciation. Assume some credit rating increase, ability to issue convertible bonds to buy BTC etc. Essentially, $20mil a year in profit, 50 mil shares gives a DCF enterprise value of $480mil, add in 1485 BTC to enterprise value, $580 mil total. Gives a share price of $11.71. Assume my analysis is full of holes (bitcoiners don’t carry a card balance maybe?), but I see the path forward. Pretty bullish at current price, unless credit card product gets denied.

1 WEEK UNTIL THE CAPS LOCK WILL RISE AGAIN @ODELL

Wildcard play: Social security is going to get bailed into treasuries

Looking for the Nostr opinion on this: Assumption: Public transport is not profitable, it’s a service paid for by our tax dollars. We collect fare money by the users of the service so they pay a higher portion of the costs as they use it. Given we all pay the bill in some way whether we use it or not, we all have a vested interest in the service. The more people that use it, the trains, buses etc required, more routes to cover and more time slots. The net effect of increased public transport usage is less cars on the road, less wear on infrastructure etc less cost to the tax payers on net. Public transport produces a net saving for the tax payers greater than the cost of providing it. Given this, reducing the cost of fares to 0 benefits everyone. Why not go a step further and PAY people to take public transport. Give them their carrot, $1 a fare. My vested interest in this is I HAVE to drive my car full of tools around between jobs. So if you don’t HAVE to transport anything but yourself, maybe stay off the road and get in a bus lol.

Went offline for a week in this tiny home, skinny dipping in the billabong and catching up on books 🤙

I’m looking at commodity price charts (mostly construction materials) and they’ve stayed flat or gone down minimally over the last few months of volatility. Does the real economy just not give a fuck about tariffs? Is all the noise just finance people adjusting their PE ratios and selling off stocks? Is it too soon to see the flow-on effects? Howard Lutnick said the “easiest way to find a fraudster is to stop payments and listen”. Is this actually just Wall Street?

Might as well just buy whatever @MartyBent talks about at this point. GameStop to be the next Bitcoin Treasury company, LFG.

The US Government will buy MSTR outright to fill it’s 1million BTC quota.

I 100% think the Tesla “terrorism” is an insurance job being orchestrated by Tesla / Elon. Utilising the bad press environment to get old stock off the books.

A repeating theme in history is those that don’t adopt new technologies for moral or protectionist reasons, lose to those that do.

Solar power is just nuclear power with less steps involved

Speculation: Strike will be bought by Strategy to launch Strategy’s Bitcoin banking services direct to pre-existing customers.

It’s never wrong to be kind.

How does Nostr feel about mortgage sizes relative to income? Gotta live somewhere

https://fountain.fm/episode/cjQCPtRpPsl4FX6r8ATe One thing that stood out to me in this episode was (paraphrasing) “there’s only room for a few people to be highly successful in one field, but plenty of room for people to claim affinity to that field on social media”. It’s easier to simply associate yourself with something cool or indicative of success than it is to actually be good at something and let your work talk for itself. In recent months I’ve reduced my posting of rollerblading content down to almost 0 and I’ve focused on my actual job, fixing dental equipment. In this time I’ve been promoted, abused by customers over the phone for problems with their equipment then thanked profusely for fixing it, made more money and worked harder than I’ve ever worked before. In my field of work, there is no social media hype to be seen. The moment you post something bragging of your successes, you will be cut down by a customer with another broken piece of equipment. The success you have to show over those who can’t hang in the industry, is by staying in business. Those who can’t cut it, go under. Your only signal of success is a website to your business that has never been taken down, and a slogan that says “over 15 years in business”. The sales reps of dental equipment change brands every few years as they burn all their contacts, and the great service engineers have resumes with 20+ years with one company and a phone that rings all day. As I approach 12 years with company I work for, with a phone that rings all day, I’m hoping that on I’m way to being considered a great service engineer. Rollerblading is shifting back to being the social hobby it began as, and out of being a second job. Focus, focus. #grind #work

Understood the technical side of bitcoin in 2013, didn’t buy any for another 7 years. /shrug