I really think Bilajis thesis is plausible even if it isn’t probable in the timeframe he has tossed out.
However, here is how Bilajis $1M Bitcoin price in 90 days could be accurate.
1. Unrealized losses from long term Treasuries at ridiculously low rates are held by many banks.
2. Stock prices fall as a result of these liabilities growing on banks balance sheets.
3. Falling stock prices create distrust in banks.
4. Distrust creates bank runs causing failing banks.
5. Fed tries to stop contagion with inflationary QE measures.
6. Due to inflation being severe still, Fed increases rates only intensifying the problem.
7. Smart money starts to exit banks into hard assets (Bitcoin being most attractive).
8. Bitcoin price starts to moon.
9. As banks fail and Fed keeps inflating currency, Bitcoin decouples from dollar and moons like crazy.
#bitcoin
#plebchain
I get that many think Balajis is just fishing for engagement. Maybe he is. However, his game theory ideas on the future have been fascinating thought experiments.
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#plebchain
I actually don’t think the crux of Balaji’s argument is that crazy. His timeframe seems insane, but isn’t that exactly how something like this will go?
When hyperinflation hits, it will hit fast. Most people won’t be expecting it and will be surprised by it. Just like the COVID shutdowns. We were all caught off guard. Most of the world will be caught off guard with the collapse of the global fiat system.
Many Bitcoiners have tried to time and trade through Bitcoin cycles but there will be a time when it’s too late. Are we there yet? Maybe. But how would you know?
#bitcoin
#plebchain
Balajis space was interesting. Say what you will about the man but you have to have some major cajones to bet $1M. Maybe it’s just expensive advertising but his argument is interesting.
Basically, he said that Powell, Yellen, and others are willing to boldface lie in face of a real emergency. He believes everything they are doing is covering up a larger emergency. He believes that the problem with SVB wasn’t limited there but is affecting all banks.
All of this will serve to allow the Fed govt to nationalize the banking industry thus eliminating private banking while inflating the currency at hyperinflation rates. This then props up the entry for the new CBDC.
He said we all thought hyperbitcoinization would be much more gradual. Shutting down Silvergate and Signature were attempts to close the fiat exits to Bitcoin.
I don’t know if he is right or wrong but it doesn’t take much to convince me to stack more sats.
#plebchain
#bitcoin