I sent this to a friend I’ve been trying to orange pill since the lows following the FTX debacle. He was lamenting not buying when I told him about BTC at $17k in late November 2022. “Don’t sweat missing $17k. There is a monetary (inflation) premium baked into the prices of gold, stocks, and real estate which is distinct from their intrinsic values. In time Bitcoin can capture that inflation premium. And that premium is apart from any value associated with its current and future utility as a medium of exchange. Let’s say the inflation premium is ~$50T globally. For context, the global value of all debt is ~$400T. Bitcoin’s current market capitalization is $840B. That suggests 59x upside on the inflation premium alone, or $2.5M per BTC. I’m assuming that the timeframe to realize this price is 15-20 years, but the $2.5M is in today’s $US, not inflated future dollars. Stocks and real estate won’t crash as a result, but their valuations will be constrained to the cash flows from their businesses & rents, respectively. Gold’s intrinsic value is consumer, industrial, and apocalyptic but it’s much more purely priced as an inflation hedge than either stocks or real estate.”

Reminder that @Dr. Jeff ‘s 40k by the halving px forecast ain’t wrong yet. Use the opportunity to keep stacking - it’s a gift.

Quote of the year nominee from Secretary Yellen’s Senate testimony: [Senator Ron Johnson: "You are going to drive the debt to $50 trillion."] 👉🏻 Yellen: "Yes, but what I believe is the single most important metric for judging the fiscal stance of the country is real net interest as a share of GDP."

My most frequent orange-pilling objections: 1) “blah, blah, blah, Warren Buffett…” 2) I can’t understand it 3) “blah, blah, blah SBF…”

#dogma

Now this is a new federal holiday I can get behind wholeheartedly - more worthy than at least four other existing holidays, IMO. You might prefer to add others, but in my view freedom is the essential quality which allows us to live fully as humans. I can’t think of any other single event in our nation’s history which is more purely emblematic of freedom than what enslaved Americans began to realize in Galveston 158 years ago today. Redemptive of a truly evil practice, sorrow that it took so long to begin rectifying, and incomplete, sure, but also joy. #Juneteenth seems like something we call all celebrate.