Three phases to a Bitcoin halving cycle. Three completely different worlds in terms of news, adoption, price, and haters. And the cycle peaks all fell inside a three-week window on the block clock across three separate cycles. Nobody planned that. The protocol just kept working. Accumulation: negativity is the signal. Be psycho about free cash flow. Profit: polarity flips. Don't be a trader. Think clearly about what you have. Hold: watch the block counter not the price. Stack dry powder. The hardest thing to do in Bitcoin is nothing. Part 2 of the Bitcoin Conviction Cycle:

Due 7/21 - Bitcoin: The Three Phases (Part 3 of 4)

Personal experience only. Not financial advice. Do your own research.

#bitcoin #grownostr

Sixty, eighty, fifty. It does not matter to me. One Bitcoin is one Bitcoin. Had this exact conviction at twenty thousand, watched it fall to sixteen, watched it climb back to thirty, kept stacking. Still have not sold a sat.

One block at a time

Sunday coffee, weekly content series 7/12/2026

#grownostr #bitcoin

Bitcoin One Million by Krueger and Sigman makes one argument cleanly: $1M Bitcoin is inevitable based on a 48-month power law with R-squared of 0.99. The line the whole book rests on: "when you can't win playing by the rules, the only logical move is to play a different game entirely." My kids already look at me like I'm crazy when I try to explain a VCR. Someday they'll look at fiat money the same way. I'd rather be wrong about Bitcoin than ignore it hoping the system fixes itself.

Why I'd Rather Be Wrong About Bitcoin

Book Shelf: Bitcoin One Million by Fred Krueger and Ben Sigman

#bitcoin #grownostr

I had Bitcoin's price on my watch. Checked it at 2am. In the shower. In meetings that should have been emails. That is anxiety pretending to be conviction. 210,000 blocks per halving. Every cycle the same sequence of human behavior plays out. Supply drops. Market reprices. Conviction holders accumulate. Price activates. Late money piles in. Price peaks. Distribution. Grind lower. Accumulate again. We are roughly 22 weeks from the bottom of the current hold cycle. Last time we were at this block position in 2022 the weekly close was $21,096. It bottomed at $16,647 in December of that year. Part 1 of a 4 part Bitcoin series, where we are and what the framework says to do about it.

The Bitcoin Conviction Cycle

Personal experience only. Not financial advice. Do your own research.

#bitcoin #grownostr

In an age of infinite output, the only thing that appreciates is you

In an age of infinite output, the only thing that appreciates is you

Sunday coffee, weekly content series 7/12/2026

Q2 is closed. 71 workouts. 45 posts. 77 hours writing. 42 hours reading. Net worth down 8.6%. Bitcoin down 32% and I didn't sell a sat. Two people told me I looked relaxed on the same day without knowing the other said it. Ten years in that building. Never happened before. What changed? Everything and nothing. The job is the same. The system is the same. What changed is the person inside it. Q2 accountability — the full version:

Why Choices Matter

Q2 2026: personal accountability series, the numbers don't lie

#bitcoin #grownostr

This week two Bitcoin voices who do not agree circled the same metric. Visser wants the 200-day, Consorti says we just broke the 200-week. Same number nearly, different framework. The weekly signal-from-noise is up. Stack, hold, watch the level.

250 years later, the American dream is still alive

Sunday Coffee, weekly content series 7/5/2026

#bitcoin #grownostr

Father's Day. Wife took the kids to Costco and told me to do whatever I wanted. I made a coffee, finished a draft, then went for a run. Already lifted that morning. Knackered. Hot. Didn't care. On the other side of a bridge over the river the dirt trail opens up. Gravel. Dirt. Sun. Shade. Three miles or ten. No agenda. Shirt off. Nowhere to be. That feeling is freedom. Not the concept. The actual physical sensation of it. I used to not have this. Everything I write about is the distance between the person who does and doesn't.

I Decided I’m Winning

Five Pillar Framework

#bitcoin #grownostr

Alphabet recently raised $85B in equity. Largest offering ever. The four hyperscalers are guiding to $700-725B in 2026 capex, up 70%+ from last year. Nobody adjusts that for input cost inflation. A power transformer that cost $3M in 2020 costs $5.4M now. Lead times hit 210 weeks. Every party in this chain gets paid more the longer the spending continues. Hardware manufacturers, construction firms, utilities, executives, analysts. Nobody gets paid to say slow down. This is moral hazard before the correction, not conspiracy. The people profiting won't tell you when the wheels come off.

Who Will Be Holding The Bag When the Wheels Come Off?

Economic Reporting

#bitcoin #grownostr

Import and export price indexes May 2026: The last time the pipeline looked like this, the Fed had to hike rates from 1.75% to 5.25% in 16 months to drag CPI from 9.1% back to 3%, and Warsh walks into his first FOMC meeting this week with a president demanding rate cuts, an energy war with no exit ramp, and producer prices screaming that the worst of it hasn't hit the consumer yet. Going to get interesting from here.

Holy shitballs, PPI pipeline on fire, this is 2021 all over again…

Producer Price Indexes May 2026

Economic Reporting

For anyone living on a paycheck, buying groceries, filling a gas tank, and paying an electric bill, inflation is not under control. The math is simple. Prices up 4.2%. Wages up 3.4%. The difference compounds every month.

Consumer Price Index May 2026

Economic Reporting

Nominal wages go up. Prices go up faster. The paycheck grows. The purchasing power shrinks. The headline says raise. The math says pay cut.

Real Earnings May 2026

Economic Reporting

I love living in a neighborhood where all the Dad’s yell slow down at cars passing through. Slow down.

The potential sitting inside the average person is staggering and most of it is being drained through their eyeballs into a phone. The process has no attention. Only the outcome does. That’s the clue and the only thing worth protecting.

Attention is all you need, and it's all they want from you

Sunday Coffee, weekly content series 6/7/26

#bitcoin #grownostr

Two BLS reports this week tell the same story. Productivity up, labor share at a 79-year low, real wages falling. Then today: 172K jobs added, almost all in the lowest-paid sectors. Long-term unemployed up 524K over the year. The economy produces more with less and the gains go to capital. The 4.3% headline is a mask. Build accordingly. #bitcoin #grownostr

The Employment Situation May 2026

Economic Reporting

Labor share of output just hit 53.7%. Lowest since 1947. Economy grew output 3.2% with 0.4% more hours. Real compensation fell. Manufacturing is producing more with fewer people for six years running. The productivity gains are real. They’re going to capital, not labor. Nobody is coming to fix this for you. #bitcoin #grownostr https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/prod2.pdf

BLS Q4 2025 wage data dropped today. The headline is +4.2%. Sounds decent. Strip out tech and finance and the economy regular people actually live in is growing at +2.5%. Against inflation still running hot on housing, food, energy, and insurance. The average household is losing ground every single month. Politicians in 78 jurisdictions blocked $64 billion in data center construction. Their voters got a press conference. The jobs, the construction wages, and the property tax base went to the counties that said yes instead. Nobody will be held accountable for the jobs that were never created. That’s moral hazard. #bitcoin #grownostr

County Employment and Wages Q4 2025

Economic Reporting

The job is temporary. The skills are permanent. Build skills that travel, not loyalty to an organization that would restructure you out tomorrow without blinking. #bitcoin #grownostr

MSTR is likely to have 1 million Bitcoin before the end of this year at the current rate of accumulation…