#Bitcoin price update:
It’s been 7 months since my last #BTC price update and as anticipated, the high probability bear scenario took place although, I wasn’t expecting the drop to be as sharp and deep. At this point there is no question that we are in a bear market and the question is what’s likely to take place next?
In my opinion all the models that have been used to track past cycles are going to be useless. Bitcoin price has entered a change of regime and it’s unlikely that we’ll ever see the typical 4 years cycle (3 years of bull, 1 year of bear) moving forward. The rainbow 🌈 chart has topped and what comes next may look more like a big upward expanding fan with a price oscillating between $40k and $300K for the next 16 years.
The hard truth is that for most people, Bitcoin has failed as a store-of-value. An investor who bought and held BTC since April 2021 has realized, more than 5 years later, exactly 0% return. For a passive investor only interested in making a financial return, T-bonds would have been a better place to park his money.
Of course this is cherry-picking the investment timeframe and many will argue that holding Bitcoin over a longer time horizon will systematically turn out to be a superior investment but if Bitcoin really has entered a new regime, I’m doubtful that this assumption will hold.
I think Bitcoin will remain an attractive asset to get in and out but if BTC starts to oscillate in a range for the next decade, holding without taking profit will be a risky approach.
In the short term, I think that Bitcoin is likely to have bottomed. We may get a final push down to the $55K zone but my highest probability scenario (70%) is that BTC starts ripping to the upside between now and November to reach the $110k area. If this takes place, it won’t be the moment to be too excited as lower lows are still likely to be seen.
My expectation for a multi-year sideway price action hasn’t changed. The next significant breakout is unlikely to take place before 2030. Of course the expanding fan pattern shown on the chart is highly speculative as anything can happen but geometric configurations are already here to welcome this pattern, for Bitcoin to reach $1M before 2030, BTC will have to demonstrate extreme strength.
#Tradestr
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