We are back to 25%/25% probability for each path with path 2 being close to be invalidated. #Bitcoin #BTC #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

#Coinbase is launching #KYC-verified liquidity pools. It will be interesting to see what impact those can have on the #DeFI ecosystem in the long run. Some questions I have: - Is there a risk for these pools to becoming more liquid than regular pools? - Can this model be used by regulators as an example to broaden their adoption? - Will this model be enforced in Coinbase DeFi products including the #Base, the #Ethereum L2? - Will these be adopted by the broad segment of non-#privacy minded users? #Crypto View quoted note →

After UST/Luna, I think the next #stablecoin to collapse will be #sUSD which is over-collateralized by #SNX. Although sUSD is still comfortably over-collateralized, its peg mechanism has been dismantled over the last year (reducing then stopping SNX rewards, stopping liquidations, and forgiving users’ debt by consolidating it in a pool owned by the #Synthetix protocol). There is no risk of « death spiral » like with Luna as the debt repayment mechanism has been stopped but instead, I think sUSD will see a « slow bleed » which should lead to a similar outcome over a longer time period. Indeed, in the absence of a pegging mechanism the bet made by the Synthetix team is that the peg will be restored/maintained by market demand generated from yield opportunities and product usage. This seems like « magical thinking » to me. The rational for removing the peg mechanism was that sUSD could risk seeing a death spiral event although others suggest that #KainWarwick, the founder of Synthetix, had taken too much debt that he couldn’t repay which led him to push for a debt jubilee. However, like for all jubilees, someone has to pay the bill and here the ones to be slaughtered will be sUSD holders… #Crypto #DeFi #Stablecoins

#TrumpTariffs in one picture.

Updating the probabilities for #Bitcoin price: - Path 1: 25% -> 20% - Path 2: 25% -> 30% #BTC #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

My two most likely outcomes for #BTC price this cycle: - Either #Bitcoin grinds up from here and top at around $135K this summer, or - Bitcoin dumps to $45K-$38K by end of April/early May, then it goes for an extended cycle that would put us at $160K-$220K by 2027-2029. As always, there are many other possible scenarios. #Trading #Tradestr

While #crypto have been crashing over the last months, #Idena has been outperforming most of the market including #Ethereum. Adding to this that Idena validators, which are neither required to purchase specialized hardware nor to consume a lot energy, earn high double digit yield (>50%). This price stability is made possible through #ProofOfPersonhood consensus coupled to a quadratic distribution of the mining rewards (smaller stakers earn higher yield). In the meantime, as I shared previously the blocks production is getting increasingly decentralized. Personally, a model of #blockchain that I find fascinating. #iDNA #PoP #Decentralization View quoted note →

Ultimately, the #Bitcoin 4-year cycle pattern will break and this will likely happen this cycle. The unknown is whether it will break to the upside or downside. #BTC #Trading #Tradestr

#Bitcoin cycles #Trading #Tradestr #BTC

Looking at the charts through #ElliottWave’s lenses is like looking at an ambiguous image. If you perceive only one side, you miss half of the story. #Trading #Tradestr

Some people won’t touch #crypto because they don’t understand how it works but those same people use fiat daily even though they have no clue how the banking system works.

If you’ve stopped hearing about the mysterious “drones” flying in our skies then, know that they are still flying over sensitive areas. #UFOs #UFO #UAP #UAPs #Disclosure https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/5211562-pentagon-mystified-as-drone-drama-deepens/

The U.S. certainly took seriously the threat of #Bitcoin and #crypto to the dollar supremacy and they acted accordingly by: - Hijacking Bitcoin’s narrative and roadmap to make it non-competitive as a P2P medium of exchange. - Acquiring or planning to acquire large quantities of bitcoins that could be used to strengthen the dollar if needed. - Promoting a cryptodollars era by flooding the crypto ecosystem with dollar-backed #stablecoins. What else?

#China is probably a few steps behind the #UnitedStates at this point. There is no way the U.S. would have announced a #Bitcoin Strategic Reserve without having already moved their pieces on the chessboard. You don’t declare an asset strategic to offer your competitors the opportunity to front-run you. #BSR View quoted note →