Can anyone prove that #MSTR and #BlackRock don’t lend a fraction of their #BTC holdings to short sellers? If not, then those actors are toxic to the #Bitcoin ecosystem as they undermine the auditability of Bitcoin. A boycott should be called on institutional BTC holders that can’t show proof-of-reserve.

The #DigitalID surveillance stack will be implemented on right-wing narratives (protect the children, track the illegal immigrants, ect.) so the left-wing politics can take full advantage of it. #SurveillanceState View quoted note →

Here is an update on the #Bitcoin price forecast: I usually don’t update these forecasts very often but I had overlooked a bearish option which I think has a high probability of playing out. Path 1: 45% probability. This is the bear case in which #BTC would range between $70k and $120k until at least the end of 2027. The current high would hold for the time being and the price would start retracing to low 80’s/high 70’s. We would still see a final leg up that may take the current high marking the end of this bull market cycle. This path is the best fit for what would be expected of a typical 4-years cycle in terms of price and time. Path 2: 35% probability. This is the bull “supercycle” case. We would see a retracement from the current high to the $94K area. Then we would continue upward towards higher highs. This bull cycle could end in early 2028 at a price around $230K which would constitute an atypical bull market. #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

#meme #memes #memestr #Saylor #MSTR

As far as I understand #Coinbase reserves are audited quarterly. This leaves a lot of room for the commingling of #MSTR and #IBIT #bitcoin holdings with Coinbase users’ funds which could allow some degree of market manipulation. I would be happy to be shown that this type of manipulation isn’t possible but until proven otherwise, we have to consider this as a real possibility. All speculations could be cleared by demonstrating proof of reserve and the rational provided by #Saylor to justify not doing so are weak at best. View quoted note →

#Saylor was asked if #MSTR will ever show proof-of-reserve and Saylor replied that the reason #Strategy doesn’t show proof-of-reserve is for security reasons. This answer raises more than an eyebrow. It’s unlikely that Saylor isn’t aware that he could prove MSTR’s #Bitcoin reserves in a private manner through zero-knowledge proofs. Maybe that’s not a service that #Coinbase is willing to provide but why not just say so in that case? It seems to me that this response hides something bigger. I really only see two reasons as to why Startegy wouldn’t show proof for its #BTC holdings: 1) There are some accounting trickeries going on between Coinbase and their big institutional clients (#BlackRock, Strategy…). Maybe some form of paper Bitcoin or other tricks allowing them to manipulate the market. 2) Saylor knows, he will have to sell some BTC at some point and he doesn’t want the move to be broadcasted publically until officially announced. What other reasons do you think of? If Saylor is so concerned about the #privacy of its holdings maybe he just needs a #Monero. https://xcancel.com/BitcoinMemesIRL/status/1927180295138103434

Here is an update on the #Bitcoin price forecast: As it stands, I think we are more likely than not to see an atypical extended cycle in time that could top around early 2027 (which is the path 3 in the previous note). Updated paths: Path 1: 45% probability. #BTC breaks out without any substantial pull back from the current levels. The top could be reach at around 240K early in 2027. Path 2: 25% probability. Pretty much the same as path 1 but with a retracement of the current move up (we shouldn’t revisit the last low though) before the break out. Path 3: 20% probability. There is still a possibility that this market cycle has completed and that we take out the recent low with more downward chop to follow. #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

I don’t know much about #Bukele’s rise and actions beyond the general parroted praises on his support for #Bitcoin or his crackdown on gangs violence. I certainly took those with a good amount of skepticism but without listening to dissident voices, it’s hard to not be somewhat sympathetic to his success. So if like me you have a generally positive image of Bukele you may want to watch the segment below. It certainly puts things in perspective. Not that, I’m surprised about what’s reported but rather that I haven’t heard it sooner. This tells me that Bukele’s propaganda arm has some reach. #ElSalvador

I foresee that the #GENIUSAct will mark the start of a new wave of crackdown on #crypto similar to the crackdown we’ve seen on #privacy coins/layers but instead the pressure will be applied to parties involved with non-compliant #stablecoins. Like for privacy, the best answer will be extreme decentralization where no single dev can be single out and targeted for publishing “non-compliant” code. #DeFi #Stablecoin

I’m not seeing much uproar about the #GENIUSAct. Instead people are having fun memifying Warren. You would think that a regulation attempting to force on-chain #KYC (as I understand it) would get more attention. This could backfire for regulators though. Instead of KYCing their users, #DeFi protocols may choose to ditch USD-backed #stablecoins and adopt alternatives instead. That said, USD-backed stablecoins are largely adopted so this would require some significant changes from DeFi protocols. Implementing KYC may be the path of least resistance. Also, it’s unclear to me to what extent wrapped versions of #USDC or #USDT could be frozen by the issuer. There will probably be some workaround but using those non-KYCed wrapped versions in their protocols would certainly exposed the protocols to some form of retaliation. #Crypto #Stablecoin

Paradoxically, the #GENIUSAct and #STABLEAct may be counterproductive in asserting the dominance of the U.S. dollar within the #crypto ecosystem. The adoption of the U.S. dollar in crypto is already pervasive. Many decentralized #stablecoin protocols rely to some extend on dollar-backed assets. By wanting to increase the control U.S. authorities have over the usage of US-backed #stablecoins, the legislators take the risk of undermining this dominant position. #DeFi protocols can’t be stopped and they will seek alternatives to US-backed assets. This is a perfect example of how a bad regulation can accelerate innovation that goes against the intent of the regulation.