I’m not sure how some folks can make the case that OGs unloading their bitcoins is bullish for the price. Due to its non-linear emission, the #Bitcoin supply became quite concentrated among early adopters. The original vision was that nobody would need to sell their #BTC for fiat but because Bitcoin has failed to be broadly adopted as a medium of exchange, OGs have no choice but to exchange part of their stack for fiat which puts pressure on the price.

“The bill treats #privacy like a loophole, not a right, reshaping the internet into a government ID checkpoint. […] The bill’s machinery reads like a privacy demolition project written by people who still call tech support to reset passwords. […] The wording is broad enough to rope in half the internet, yet somehow manages to exclude “bona fide news” (as to be determined by the state) and cloud platforms that don’t create the content themselves. […] Officials in other places are already cheering this idea. Michigan introduced a proposal requiring internet providers to detect and block VPN traffic.” And I bet those bills have by-partisan consensus… #DigitalID #Agenda2030 View quoted note →

#Bitcoin price forecast update: The recent move down had #BTC broke down of the curved wedge for the first time since this bull market. For the bull case to have a chance of playing out (path 2), BTC needs to remain above $92k and to reclaim the wedge before the end of November. That said, I think there are good odds for this last move down to have found a temporary bottom. From here, I’m expecting a leg up that should bring Bitcoin back to the $120k area. This will probably be the last chance for the bulls to attempt a break out from the curved wedge. However, if the price falls back down and goes out of the wedge, the bull case will become very unlikely at this point. Already, I’m downgrading the probability of the bull case to 20% (from 25%) and upgrading the bear case to 70% (from 65%). Again, even if the bear case is at play, we have good chances of seeing a new ATH next year (in the $135k area ). However, this would be preceded by a drop to the $94k area. For those looking to sell some bitcoins near the top of this bull market, the next leg up may be a good time to consider doing so. As long as the price stays out of the grayed out area, the bear case will maintain a high likelihood of playing out. Emotions are high with Bitcoin trading in this range but keep in mind that this is only a 20% range over a period of 4 months. If the bear case plays out, I’m expecting a 40-50% range over the next four years. I think most long term hodlers are not prepared to navigate this type of price action… #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

#Bitcoin price forecast update: Nothing has changed since my last update except that reaching $119,261 by the end of November would not have me to reduce the odds for the bear scenario (path 1) as I was previously anticipating. Based on the structure that has developed, there are good chances that this level will be reached before the end of November without impacting the bear case. In fact, there is a lot of room for #BTC to run higher without impacting the odds for the bear case. The structure that will develop between now and the end of the year is going to matter more than the price itself to gauge whether or not the 65% odds in favor of the bear case can be reduced. That said, I think it’s unlikely for BTC to move sustainably and significantly beyond the current ATH in 2025. #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

Over the last week, I’ve seen a lot of traders on X surveying their audience on whether #Bitcoin has entered a bear market or will see a higher high next. This is a trick question because I think both are true. In #trading, no expectation should ever be absolute but rather probabilistic. However, if I had to answer this question gun to my head, I would say that #BTC has entered a bear market at the top on August 14 (defined as the shift from an impulsive structure to a corrective one) but that we’ll still see a higher high from here (corrective structure can create higher high). I would expect this bear market to be shallower but longer than previous ones. This bear market would still present great return opportunities for those willing and able to play the range. Those looking to take profits over the next few years should do so at the top of the range. The mistake that many will make is to sell at the bottom of the range when it will be obvious that the be bull market has ended. People will fear to see the typical 70% correction but I doubt we’ll see more than a 40% correction this time. But again, anything can happen and my expectation may change as the chart evolves. #Tradestr View quoted note →

I usually don’t set price targets based on fundamental or narratives but until the #Bitcoin network comes up with a consensual plan to migrate to quantum resistant cryptography, I think #BTC will have a hard time of reaching $200k. Whether #quantum computing is 2 or 20 years away from breaking Bitcoin, this narrative will persist and undermine BTC performance. Quantum resistance cryptography should be the focus of the devs to a greater degree than arguing about how to handle spam. I’m not sure to which extent progresses have been made on the issue.

Although painful, these market flushes are an opportunity to differentiate over-hyped #crypto from undervalued/fairly valued ones. Rare are the cryptos that haven’t retraced all their gains or worse hit double digits loss over the last month. That said, some are faring fairly well. For instance, #iDNA powered by proof-of-human-work is still up 36% over the last month while offering validators a high double digit yield. Quantum resistant cryptos have also performed incredibly well with #QRL up 165%. #Privacy coins have also performed above average. Decentralized ID, #quantum resistance and privacy are areas in which crypto has the potential to counter the relentless onslaught coming from the technocratic structure that pushes for #digitalID and other systems aiming to enslave us. They tried to trap the liquidity in the meme casino at the start of the bull market but ultimately real value will shine while vanity projects gets slaughtered. #Idena #Trading #Tradestr

The U.S. government is about to refill its #Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. #RogerVer

Unchained

Roger Ver to Pay $48 Million in Tentative Settlement Deal With DOJ: Report - Unchained

Roger Ver agreed to pay $48 million to settle tax fraud allegations with the DOJ, potentially ending a decade-long dispute tied to his early Bitcoi...

That’s the uniparty playbook at play here. Biden authorized the intervention of the army on the domestic territory and #Trump makes use of it. Similar to how Trump deployed the COVID vaccine and Biden forced it on people. If you think there is one side that is less worse than the other, you’re being played for your consentement. #USpol View quoted note →

#Bitcoin price forecast update: $BTC broke some key levels on this dump that were important for the bulls to defend. There is still a bull case to be made (Path 2) but the probability for it to play out is significantly reduced (25%). Dipping below $90,672 would reduce its probability to under 10% and this bull path would be fully invalidated at $75,017. Path 1 is the most likely scenario with 65% chance of playing out. This path consists in a long sideway consolidation (probably past 2029) within a 80% or so range between $70K and $135K. Because of its corrective structure, this path could take a multitude of shapes between these two levels. in this scenario, it’s still possible for BTC to put on a new ATH. Even if we don’t put a new ATH it’s more likely than not that we’ll revisit the region of the last ATH. So far, there is no hard invalidation for this scenario but reaching $119,261 before the end of November will have me reduce its probability in favor of the bull case. #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

At this point I would be very surprised if anything more bullish than Path 1 plays out. Path 1 allows (but does not guarantee) for a higher high but that’s one you may want to sell into if we get it. #Bitcoin #BTC #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

Governments won’t tell us what 3I/Atlas is or isn’t. Thankfully, humans can just use #RemoteViewing to get some answers. Here is part 1 of 3 of a remote viewing session by Birdie, a remote viewer that I trust. This session was recorded around the end of July. #3IAtlas

#Bitcoin can’t be printed but it can be lended which is a softer way to inflate the supply of #BTC available to be sold on the market. Those who have invested in Bitcoin for its scarcity but hold their assets with a custodian that lend their BTCs are totally missing the point. View quoted note →

A good overview of the cover-up by governments and censorship by big tech on 3I/Atlas. #3IAtlas

#Bitcoin price forecast update: With #BTC putting on a new ATH, the bear path that could have opened the door for a full retracement of the current bull cycle becomes very unlikely. However, I wouldn’t discard a high probability (45%) for the top to be in for this bull cycle. If that’s the case, it is more likely that Bitcoin will see a multi years sideway consolidation ranging between $134k and $70K (see path 1). This scenario would become quite unlikely if $125,220 is breached before the price reaches $105,128 first. If we get a extended bull cycle, I see two paths: Path 2 that would see the price of Bitcoin grinding up in the already established channel until September 2026 to then consolidate sideways until 2030 or so. Path 3 that would consist in a blow-off top running until the end of 2026. Both paths would become less likely if the price can’t hold $105,138. I put a probability of playing out at 35% for path 2 and 15% for path 3. #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →

U.S. citizens, pay attention: By issuing NSPM-7, #Trump just directed his government to focus on pre-criminalizing U.S. citizens based on a dozen of political opinions including the expression of anti-government views. #NSPM7 #USPol

NASA, ESA, UAE, and China, all are silent about the passing of 3I/Atlas by Mars despite all having the capabilities to observe this interstellar object up close. That’s when you know it’s not a comet… #3IAtlas

#NASA websites don’t relay satellites images due to the government shutdown as #3I/Atlas passes by Mars. What are the odds that a government shutdown occurs at the exact same time as an interstellar object suspected to be engineered passes closed enough to be observed. Coincidence? I don’t think so. #3IAtlas

#Bitcoin price forecast update: The advance shown by the bulls over the past week doesn’t yet invalidate the path 1 (bear case) but makes it a lot less likely. Its probability of happening is now downgraded to 25% (from 45%). The path 2 (bull case) is upgraded to 50% (from 30%). The thesis for an extended cycle appears a lot more probable. Although anything is possible, I don’t think that #BTC will see another parabolic advance within the next five years but rather a steady grind higher with pullbacks no greater than 25% or so. Unless advance in quantum computers shows readiness to wreak havoc Bitcoin, I wouldn’t expect any major bear market as we’ve seen in past cycles. For the short term, I’m expecting more consolidation until December before the next major leg up (which isn’t exactly reflected in the chart below). Invalidation for the bear case is still $125,409 while a soft invalidation for the bull case is still $105,128. #Trading #Tradestr View quoted note →