The March jobs report looks strong until you look at what's inside it.
The US economy added 178,000 jobs, blowing past the 65,000 consensus estimate. But the headline number is masking what's actually happening underneath.
February's jobs report was just revised from a loss of 92,000 to a loss of 133,000, the worst single month since December 2020. January was revised up by 34,000 to 160,000. The pattern of large downward revisions has become a recurring feature of this labor market data. The initial number gets the headline. The revision gets buried.
March's "beat" also comes with context. Healthcare accounted for 76,000 of the 178,000 jobs added, and 35,000 of those were striking healthcare workers returning to their jobs at physicians' offices. That's not new hiring. That's people going back to work after a strike ended. Strip out the strike resolution and healthcare added roughly 41,000 jobs, still strong but closer to its 12-month average of 29,000.
The federal government lost 18,000 jobs in March as DOGE-driven layoffs continued showing up in the data. Financial activities shed 15,000 positions.
The unemployment rate ticked down from 4.4% to 4.3%, but that drop came almost entirely from a reduction in the labor force, 396,000 people left. When people stop looking for work, the unemployment rate goes down even if hiring isn't improving. The labor force is shrinking due to slowing population growth, a steep drop in immigration, and declining participation.
Wages rose just 0.2% for the month and 3.5% year-over-year, both below expectations. Even where hiring is happening, employers aren't competing hard for workers.
The March number looks good in isolation. But much of it was a mechanical bounce-back from a healthcare strike, the labor force is contracting, wage growth is cooling, and February's hole just got 44% deeper than originally reported.
