The European Central Bank's latest financial stability review warns that the war in the Middle East is "putting the resilience of the financial system to the test" and that "the repercussions for the global economy and financial stability are becoming graver the longer it lasts."
The ECB says equity valuations are "stretched by historical standards," bond risk premia are "compressed globally," and that investors are underestimating downside risks.
It cites uncertainty around US trade policy and reduced commitment to multilateral cooperation as amplifying factors.
Vice President Luis de Guindos described the current investor mood as a "bittersweet situation," warning that complacency combined with geopolitical shocks "could give rise to a change in markets."
The ECB also flagged hedge fund positions in eurozone sovereign bonds that could amplify sudden repricing, growing risks in private credit markets, and rising cyber threats from new AI models.








